Essays on Energy Technology Innovation Policy

otivated by global climate change, enhancing innovation systems for energy technologies is seen as one of the largest public policy challenges of the near future. The role of policy in enhancing energy innovation systems takes several forms: public provision of research and develop funding, facilitating the private sector's capability to develop new technologies, and creating incentives for private actors to adopt innovative and appropriate technologies. This dissertation explores research questions that span this range of policies to develop insights in how energy technology innovation policy can be reformed in the face of climate change. The first chapter of this dissertation explores how decision making to allocate public research and development funding could be improved through the integration of expert technology forecasts. I present a framework to evaluate and optimize the U.S. Department of Energy's research and development portfolio of applied energy projects, accounting for spillovers from technical complimentary and competition for the same market share. This project integrates one of the largest and most comprehensive sets of expert elicitations on energy technologies (Anadon et al., 2014b) in a benefit evaluation framework. This work entailed developing a new method for probability distribution sampling that accommodates the information that can be provided by expert elicitations. The results of this project show that public research and development in energy storage and solar photovoltaic technologies has the greatest marginal returns to economic surplus, but the methodology developed in this chapter is broadly applicable to other public and private R&D-sponsoring organizations. The second chapter of this dissertation explores how policies to transfer technologies from federally funded research laboratories to commercialization partners, largely private firms, create knowledge spillovers that lead to further innovation. In this chapter, I study the U.S. Department of Energy's National Laboratories, and provide the first quantitative evidence that technology transfer agreements at the Labs lead to greatly increased rates of innovation spillovers. This chapter also makes a key methodological contribution by introducing a technique to utilize automated text analysis in an empirical matching design that is broadly applicable to other types of social science studies. This work has important implications for how policies should be designed to maximize the social benefits of the...