Transportation Energy Portfolio Design Under Uncertainty

Current energy supply and consumption are facing issues on energy security and global climate change. National interest in energy security requires diversification in energy consumption. Increasing concern in climate change demands reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission. Alternative energy technologies, especially those are more environmental friendly and efficient, are advocated by all level of administrations. With all these available energy technologies, we have to develop a good energy consumption portfolio design to achieve least monetary cost and addressing issues we described above.;Transportation energy portfolio design concerns energy production operations and facility investment management. A rigorous system analysis framework is needed to design a sustainable transportation energy portfolio. Uncertainty is a major challenge in long-term energy portfolio planning. Particularly cellulosic biofuel faces more uncertainties given its immature technology, environmental friendly features. Changing energy and environmental regulations and policies are another uncertainty in energy portfolio planning.;This dissertation attempts to establish mathematical models that can be used to evaluate the economic feasibility and system robustness of the sustainable transportation energy portfolio, as well as provide renewable energy expansion strategies. Potential future uncertainties in renewable energy technology evolvement, biofuel demand are handled using both multi-stage deterministic programming and multi-stage stochastic programming framework. I hope this work will encourage further efforts in bridging the two communities of operations research and renewable energy.