| Environmental issues such as global warming and the resulting increase in extreme climate have become a fact that countries have to face.The intensified environmental pollution and the destruction of the natural ecological environment have brought serious threats to human production and life.As China's urbanization and industrialization process continues to accelerate,a large amount of fossil energy consumption makes carbon emissions continue to increase.China's industry is large but not strong,its volume expansion is obvious,and its quality of growth is not high.The development model is still a model of high investment,high consumption,high emissions,and low returns.In recent years,energy shortages,climate anomalies,and environmental pollution have seriously affected economic and social development and people's quality of life.China must strictly control greenhouse gas emissions to achieve green,low-carbon,and sustainable economic and social development.China has a vast territory,uneven economic development in various regions,and great differences in carbon emissions.In this paper,the "2006 IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guide" is used to calculate the total regional carbon emissions,carbon intensity,and per capita carbon emissions in China from 1998 to 2008.The spatial agglomeration Moran index is used to analyze regional agglomeration..At the same time,the grey comprehensive correlation analysis method is used to compare the carbon emission influencing factors in various regions,providing data support for the formulation and implementation of regional differentiated emission reduction strategies.The industrial sector is a key industry in China's carbon emissions.Uses system dynamics method to construct China's regional industrial ecosystem from five aspects: industry,energy,technology,carbon emissions,and population.It further studies the operating mechanism of the industrial ecosystem and simulates the system model.Introducing carbon emissions data indicators into the operating efficiency of industrial ecosystems,and measuring the operating efficiency of China's industrial ecosystems under carbon emissions constraints,can better control regional carbon dioxide emissions,and formulate regional industrial sustainable development strategies for the government,Provide a basis for coordinating economic,energy,and environmental relationships within the region.It plays an important role in formulating industrial development policies,optimizing industrial structure,deciding industrial ecological layout,and achieving carbon emission reduction goals.Based on the discussion of domestic and foreign research literature and basic theory,the use of spatial statistical analysis methods,system dynamics theory,DEA methods,etc.,is used to conduct in-depth research on regional carbon emissions and their impact on the operating efficiency of industrial ecosystems.The main contents include: Chapter 1,Introduction,clarifying the source of the topic,the significance of the topic,discussing the main content and structure of the paper,and introducing the research methods and innovations and deficiencies of the paper;Relevant documents such as carbon emissions,regional carbon emissions differences,and regional industrial ecosystem construction are reviewed;Chapter 3 summarizes theories of low-carbon economic theory,sustainable development theory,and industrial ecosystems;Chapter 4 uses the 2006 IPCC Guidelines The calculation method in China estimates the total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon intensity of 30 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions in China from 1998 to 2018,and draws a five-level division map to visualize the differences in regional carbon emissions.And evolution trends are displayed,using spatial statistical methods to analyze the spatial correlation and spatial distribution characteristics of regional carbon emissions in China,and using gray comprehensive correlation analysis to measure the gray correlation of carbon emission influencing factors in 30 provinces in China;Chapter 5 is based on the theory of system dynamics and uses Vensim software tools to establish China's regional industrial ecosystem.Dynamic model,including industrial,energy,technology,carbon emissions,population five subsystems.Simulate the variables,predict the total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon emission intensity of China in the future,and simulate different scenarios at the same time;Chapter 6 constructs an evaluation index system for the operating efficiency of regional industrial ecosystems,using BBC model in the method uses carbon emissions as input indicators to measure operating efficiency.In addition,according to China's carbon reduction targets for 2020,carbon emissions are used as undesired outputs,and the SBM model is used to control the system's operating efficiency under carbon emissions constraints.Carry out calculations and research on the operating efficiency of regional industrial ecosystems under low-carbon constraints;Chapter VII transforms the regional economic growth mode,optimizes the industrial structure,stimulates regional enterprises' technological innovation,reduces the intensity of energy consumption,improves the operating efficiency of industrial ecosystems,and improves The quality of urbanization and residents' awareness of environmental protection,the establishment and improvement of regional carbon emission markets,carbon emission laws and regulations,and other aspects of China's regional carbon emission reduction and China's industrial ecosystem development countermeasures.The eighth chapter summarizes the main conclusions of the article,and puts forward the direction and prospect of the next research.The main conclusions reached in this article are as follows.China's carbon emissions show a periodical characteristic,which can be roughly divided into three phases.The first stage was from 1998 to 2001,showing a steady growth trend,the second stage was from2002 to 2011,showing rapid growth,and the third stage was from 2012 to 2018,and the growth rate was significantly slowed down.Annual average carbon emissions are highest in the eastern region,followed by the central region,and lowest in the western region.However,the growth rate was highest in the western region and lowest in the central region.The intensity of carbon emissions in the central region has dropped significantly,and the gap with the eastern region is gradually narrowing.The carbon emissions of different provinces are uneven and vary widely.The provinces with higher per capita carbon emissions are the economically developed eastern regions and energy-rich regions,while the lower provinces are mostly the central and western regions with backward economic development.The carbon intensity gap between regions is gradually narrowing,and there is a clear convergence trend.Based on the spatial statistical method,the Moran index calculated the total carbon emissions,carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions in China from 1998 to 2018.The standardized test values are all positive and all are greater than 1.96,indicating that China The spatial distribution of regional carbon emissions is not random,showing obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.From 1998 to 2008,the trend of spatial agglomeration of total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions is obvious,and the concentration trend is increasing,but the concentration trend has weakened from 2008 to 2018.The intensity of carbon emission intensity was obvious from 1998 to 2018,and the concentration trend continued to increase.At the same time,China's regional carbon emissions situation is continuously optimizing.Low-low concentration areas are gradually increasing,while high-high areas are continuously decreasing.The gray correlation analysis method was used to establish a gray correlation model to calculate the gray correlation of the total regional carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,and per capita carbon emissions.The correlation of different regions' carbon emission factors was different.Based on the theory of system dynamics,Vensim software tools are used to establish a dynamic model of the industrial ecosystem,including five subsystems: industry,energy,technology,carbon emissions,and population.The results of historical tests on the population,GDP,industrial added value,total energy consumption,total carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,and per capita carbon emissions in the model show that the maximum relative error in the model does not exceed-10% to +10.%,The relative error of the variables is within the acceptable range.It can be seen that the simulation results of the model are good and can be used to predict the development trend of China's regional industrial ecosystem.According to the simulation results of this paper's simulation model,a single policy will not bring about a significant reduction in carbon emissions.In order to achieve the carbon reduction target,multiple schemes must be adopted simultaneously.This will ensure the achievement of emission reduction targets.The BBC model in DEA was used to measure the operating efficiency using carbon emissions as an input indicator,and the operating efficiency of China's regional industrial ecosystem in 2009-2018 was calculated.From 2011 to 2013,the overall level of China's industrial ecological efficiency has improved,but gradually declined in the later period.Industrial eco-efficiency varies significantly among provinces.The industrial ecological efficiency in the east is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.According to China's carbon reduction targets for 2020,carbon emissions are taken as undesired outputs,and the operating efficiency under carbon emission constraints is measured using the SBM model.The ecological efficiency values in most regions have declined.The decline was most pronounced in the Midwest.Carbon emission constraints have a significant impact on the operating efficiency of regional industrial ecosystems.However,in the long run,imposing carbon emission constraints will promote the efficiency of industrial ecosystems.The innovations of this article are as follows.1.Based on situation of regional carbon emissions in 30 provinces in China,after calculation by using gis software map regional carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,carbon emissions intensity category five classification figure,with green,blue,yellow,orange,red intuitively the differences of regional carbon emissions and evolution process display,is helpful to develop regional differentiation reduction countermeasures.2.To introduce carbon subsystem as a regional industrial ecosystem dynamics model,using the theory of system dynamics from the industry,energy,technology,carbon emissions and population five aspects: build a system dynamic model,the dynamic feedback between carbon emissions and other subsystem structure and mechanism,focus on analysis for different low carbon emissions scenario simulation,provide the basis for developing regional industrial ecological development strategy.3.For the first time,regional carbon emissions were introduced into the calculation of operating efficiency of the industrial ecosystem.The total energy consumption,employment population of industrial enterprises,R&D investment and carbon emissions were selected as the input indicators,and the industrial added value as the output indicators.The BBC model in DEA was used to calculate the operating efficiency of the system.4.According to China's carbon emission reduction target in 2020,the carbon emission reduction constraint target is added to the calculation of regional industrial ecosystem operation efficiency for the first time.The results show that considering carbon emission constraint will reduce the operating efficiency of industrial ecosystem in the short term,but in the long term,applying carbon emission constraint will promote the operating efficiency of industrial ecosystem. |
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