The Study On The Effects Of Industrial Structure Of Chinese Manufacturing On Carbon Emissions

The participants of Davos World Economic Forum list global climate change as the overriding issue in 2007. Climate change has already made a negative impact on the planet's ecosystems and human society, and the harm degree depends on the efforts human make to deal with climate change. The key to preventing climate change is controlling the emissions of greenhouse gas, especially the carbon emissions. Transforming to low-carbon economy has become the trend of the world economic development.Now China is occupying in the middle stage of industrialization, the heavy chemical industrialization tendency is very obvious. Especially as China's pillar industry, the manufacturing sector in the process of industrial accelerated upgrading and industrial restructuring shows clear "high-carbon" features. This means that China will inevitably consume a large amount of resources in a long period of time and carbon emissions will inevitably maintain growing. Meanwhile, China faces the enormous pressure of a commitment of controlling and reducing carbon emissions required from the international community. The difficulty and challenge for China to move towards low-carbon economy can be imaginable.Previous literature researched on manufacturing sector's carbon emissions and industrial structure is little. Few industry sectors were selected in carbon emissions calculation for research, and only the numbers of carbon emissions produced by primary energy (coal, oil, natural gas) consumption were analyzed. Therefore, this paper focuses on improving the calculation of carbon emissions in the manufacturing sector, and analyzing the correlation between the change both in manufacturing industrial structure and carbon emissions.Firstly,the paper summarizes the development of the manufacturing sectors in China from energy scale, energy structure, economic growth and energy intensity, and makes a comparison among the labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industry. Then the paper makes a scientific calculating of the carbon emissions with the 1993-2009 data of the energy consumption from China's manufacturing industry, and analyzes the characters of change in carbon emissions. On the basis of the basic equation of carbon emissions (Kaya Equation), the paper establishes the factor decomposition model about our country's manufacturing carbon emissions, using Logarithmic Mean Division Index method (LMDI), and ascribes the driving force of the growth of the manufacturing sector's carbon emissions to economic growth effect, industrial structure effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect and carbon emission coefficient effect. What's more,the paper not only calculates the related degree of the labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing industrial structures and carbon emissions,but analyzes the interrelatedness between the change of each manufacturing sub-profession industrial structure and the change of each manufacturing industrial carbon emissions with grey correlated analysis. Finally,the paper proposes suggestions on how to reduce the carbon emissions in Chinese manufacturing sectors, in accordance with the empirical results made out in previous parts.