Dynamic Impact And Spatial Econometric Research Of Industrial Restructuring On China's Inter-provincial Carbon Emissions

In the 40 years of reform and opening up,China has undergone dramatic changes,transforming from a poor and backward country to the world's second-largest economy and the largest industrial country.As the primary contributors to global trade growth,the Chinese economy has occupied an important position in global economy and is the major stabilizer and source of power for world's economic growth.While China's economy is growing,its carbon emissions have grown substantially since 2005 to presently become the world's largest emitter over United State.In the face of the global climate crisis,China,as a responsible great power,actively fulfills its carbon emission reduction responsibilities.In June 2015,China has set the goal of carbon emission reduction:China's carbon dioxide emissions are likely to peak by 2030 or perhaps earlier,and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP fall by 60%-65%compared with 2005.As the emission reduction deadline is approaching,the situation of China's carbon emission reduction is still grim.China,as a country in the mid-later stage of industrialization,still needs to further develop the economy.Although the energy consumption of the secondary industry has declined,it is still at a relatively high level.The tertiary industry is developing rapidly,but the industry is still dominated by traditional high-energy consumption service.The integration of technology and industry is insufficient with the industrial structure optimization at a low level.These problems have brought pressure and motivation for industrial structural adjustment and energy structure transformation.Thus,more practical suggestions and measures are needed to help adjust and optimize the industrial structure,which is because that energy consumption is closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and industrial structure.The industrial structure is the key factor determining carbon emissions.Under the same overall economies or scale economies,if the industrial structure is different,the carbon emissions may be quite different.Therefore,based on an analytical framework from static to dynamic to spatially increasing layers,this paper attempts to analyze the impact of industrial restructure on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions from 2000 to 2015 by constructing relevant analytical models and using cutting-edge econometric methods.The paper reveals the mechanism of the impact of industrial restructuring on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions and proposes policy recommendations for adjusting industrial structure and reducing China's inter-provincial carbon emissions.The innovative parts of this paper are listed as follows:(1)The impact of industrial restructuring on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions is studied based on two dimensions:rationalization of industrial structure and optimization of the Industrial structure.The previous empirical researches on the impact of industrial restructuring on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions focus only on one aspect of industrial restructuring,namely,rationalization of industrial structure or optimization of industrial structure.There seldomly exist cases in which both aspects are considered.Whether it is from the aspect of industrial structure theory or the practical evolution of the industrial structure,it has proved that the industrial restructuring should include these two aspects.Therefore,this paper analyzes the impact of industrial restructuring on carbon emissions based on two dimensions,which can truly,accurately and comprehensively reflect the impact of industrial restructuring on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions.(2)This paper models the dynamic analysis of industrial structure adjustment for China's inter-provincial carbon emissions.Although the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission is studied by factorization model,time series model and panel data model,the existing researches basically study the linear relationship between the two from a static perspective by neglecting the long-term and dynamic characteristics of the industrial structure and carbon emissions,as well as neglecting the fact that carbon emission will produce a dynamic adjustment procedure under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction targets.Therefore,in view of the influence of one-phase lag variables on the current variables and the energy conservation and emission reduction targets,the dynamic adjustment analysis model of industrial structure adjustment for China's inter-provincial carbon emissions is constructed.On the one hand,this model studies the impact of one-phase lag variables on the current variables and whether there is significant path dependence and inertia of carbon emissions.On the other hand,it also studies how the adjustment speed of China's carbon emissions is under the energy conservation and emission reduction targets.The adjustment speed verifies whether the energy conservation and emission reduction targets are important factors affecting the dynamic adjustment of China's inter-provincial carbon emissions.(3)The paper studies the impact of industrial restructuring on China's inter-provincial carbon emissions from a spatial perspective.Most of the existing researches analyze the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emissions based on time series or panel data model,while overlooking the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure adjustment between regions under the spatial dimension,which fails to verify the spatial effect of rationalization and optimization of industrial structure.Therefore,few researches,from the above two aspects,study the spatial effects of industrial restructuring on carbon emissions based on the spatial econometric model.(4)According to the principle of spatial econometrics and the concept of spatial effects,the spatial effects are re-decomposed to expose the influence mechanism of inter-regional spatial effects.The concept of spatial spillover effects in existing research is unclear.Most studies simply use the coefficients of spatial lag explanatory variables to explain the spatial spillover effect of the variables,and in fact the coefficient is deviated from the true spatial spillover effect.Therefore,according to the concept of spatial effect,this paper uses the method of partial derivative matrix to further decompose the spatial effect to estimate the spatial effect of explanatory variables more accurately and truthfully,revealing the influence mechanism of inter-regional spatial effects.