| The world 195 countries jointly passed the first global agreement on climate change named "Paris Climate Agreement" in history on December 12,2015,which has set an end to a variety of ideological differences and economic quarrels,and the countries reached an agreement on human beings to deal with the climate change.More and more evidences prove that carbon emission is the key factor causing the global climate changes.Therefore,plenty of quantitative researches have been carried out by countries around the world to study carbon cycling.According to the measurement of carbon emission from World Resources Organization and the estimation of experts in the carbon cycle,carbon emissions caused by land use change took one third of the total human activities emissions during 1850-1998.How to exploit and use land resource become one of the breakthroughs in reducing carbon emission.As an important part of the global economy,China's economy has drawn the attention of the whole world,meanwhile,its total carbon emissions rank first in the world.Under the significant stressful situation of the economic downturn,the "crusade" sound from international coming out,undoubtedly,China is facing pressure both from economy development and carbon emission reduction.Therefore,the problem is how much the carbon emissions caused by the land use in China,and what are those main factors affecting carbon emissions from land use changes?As the "bad" output of land use,what kinds of land use intensity and resource allocation structure is efficient for carbon emission efficiency,and is there a spatial difference?With the land use technology develops,whether the carbon emissions from land use has convergence?An effective interpretation of the questions above will be obviously helpful to promote our understanding of China's carbon emission from land use.Combining the interpretation with the actual reality,a sound policy system of carbon emission reduction from land use can be established,which will promote China's carbon emission reduction work from the land use perspective.Therefore,this paper takes "land use" and "carbon emission" as research objects,and combines multidisciplinary theory to discuss the questions above.First,the chapters 1,2 contain fundamental theory,which has summarized the recent relevant research and defined the important concepts.Second,chapters 3,4 contain basic research.In this part,on the one hand,carbon emission accounting tools are used for carbon emission measurement at provincial level which laying the statistical foundations,on the other hand,discussing the factors affecting land use carbon emissions which ensuring the theoretical foundations.Then,the following chapters 5,6,7 are the core research.Firstly,studying the carbon emission efficiency of land use from the perspectives of land use intensity and land use structure,which giving a comprehensive cognition on carbon emission efficiency of land use at the provincial level.Secondly,analyzing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emission efficiency of land use in provinces,and discussing the distribution characteristics,regional differences and agglomeration phenomenon at the provincial level.Thirdly,testing the convergence of the carbon emission from unit land area at different regional and time scales,and discussing the convergence law of China's carbon emissions of land use.At last,chapter 8 contains the main research conclusions and policy implications.Research methods and main conclusions are listed as follows:(1)This paper measured carbon emissions at the provincial level based on the land use carbon emissions mechanism and carbon emission measurement,with the urban greenhouse gas accounting tool which is specifically designed for China.Accounting results reports including GPC(Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions),provincial inventory,industry emissions and emission intensity,and so on.The preliminary analysis of the results is that carbon emissions in provinces are different in the same reporting mode.Generally,first,carbon emissions accounting in the intermediate level in the GPC reporting mode has the widest range of calculation data,so the carbon emission values are the maximum,and increasing year by year in most provinces.Second,Changes in carbon emission from energy activities keeping the same trend with the changes in total GHG emissions of the provincial inventory reporting mode,also increasing year by year in most provinces.Provinces that the industrial activities carbon emissions are high,showing an increasing trend year by year.Agricultural activities' carbon emissions are little changed in the same province year by year.Meanwhile,the land use change and forestry activities in all provinces showing the state of carbon uptake.Third,carbon emissions of the secondary industry were significantly higher than the first and third industries.Most provinces'residents living carbon emissions show a downward trend.Fourth,emission intensity includes the CO2 emission per capita,carbon emission per unit of GDP and carbon emission per unit of land area are ranking different in the same province.(2)At the national research scale,the macro factors that affect the land use carbon emissions include globalization,economic growth and population change,medium-sized urbanization process,and micro factors include energy intensity,industrial structure,land use structure,land use intensity.The specific research process and conclusions are as follows.On one hand,taking China and the United States as an example,the effect of economic growth and population change on the direct carbon emission from land use is verified by econometric analysis.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and direct carbon emission from land use,and China's economic growth has shown a long-term effect on direct carbon emissions from land use.On the other hand,taking the 23 years data of China as an example,the extended STIRPAT model was established to verify the influencing factors of indirect carbon emission from land use,the results show that the total population,per capita GDP,international trade division,urbanization level,land use intensity,land use structure and other factors play a positive role in promoting carbon emission,the total amount of carbon emissions will increase 0.10%,0.16%,0.12%,0.17%,0.21%and 0.15%respectively when they increase(or change)1%.The factor of energy intensity showed a negative impact,an increase of every 1%will lead to 0.05%drop in the total carbon emissions.Changes in factors like land use intensity,economic development level,land use structure has a greater impact on total carbon emission,and the contribution rate is 68.75%,49.73%and 19.35%respectively.(3)The SBM(Slack Based Model)model can effectively solve the problem of taking the "carbon emission" as an undesirable output into efficiency analysis.Different land use intensity and land use structure will cause different carbon emission efficiency.Generally,land use carbon emission efficiency is increasing year by year,and the technical efficiency becomes the main factor that constraints carbon emission efficiency increasing.Specific research conclusions are as follows.From the provincial level,the land use intensity showed an increasing trend during 2006-2014,and differences are obvious between provinces,Hebei,Shanxi and Qinghai Provinces increasing much more significantly.From the three regions divisions,the land use intensity of the Central and West regions increase significantly and exceed the East regions during 2006-2014.Carbon emission efficiency of land use in each provinces showing an increasing trend,and the carbon emission efficiency value is 1 including Beijing,Inner Mongolia,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Hainan,Yunnan and Qinghai 12 provinces,with 58%of the provinces in the East region,indicating that the carbon emission of land use in the East region is more efficient.The result shows that the land use intensity is not consistent with the carbon emission efficiency at the provincial level,which means that improving the land use intensity may easily cause the predicament of reducing the carbon emission efficiency.Therefore,we can establish the countermeasures according to the improvement value of input and output to improve both of land use intensity and its carbon efficiency.The land use structure differences in provinces are the result of the combination of natural factors and socio-economic factors,and the land use structure is stability relatively.The Gini coefficient of land use structure reflects the balanced distribution of different land use types,the largest Gini Coefficient value in other types of land is 0.61,then follows the urban and industrial land of 0.56,which belongs to a absolutely concentration level and was not equally distributed.Then the Gini coefficient value of cultivated land is 0.48,garden and grassland is 0.46,and traffic and transportation and is 0.46,which are at a relatively concentration level.The Gini coefficient value of forest land,water land and land for water conservancy facilities are 0.37 and 0.33,which are at a reasonable level.The land use structure carbon emission efficiency is increasing year by year at the provincial level.provinces which carbon emission efficiency value is 1 including Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Fujian,Shandong,Guangdong,Hainan,Heilongjiang,Henan,Hubei,Sichuan and Yunnan,and 53%of them are located in the East region,indicating that the carbon emission of land use structure is efficient in the East provinces.Due to the stability of the land use structure,the carbon emission efficiency of land use structure can be improved by increasing output or raising capital and labor input on land.(4)The Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis reveals the regional differences,agglomeration and diffusion in the carbon emission efficiency of land use at the provincial level in four periods.From the provincial level,provinces which land use intensity carbon emission efficiency value is 1 are consistent with the land use structure carbon emission efficiency provinces.From the regional level,carbon emission efficiency of land use structure and land use intensity are relatively higher in eastern and southern coastal regions,and the northeast and northwest regions have higher carbon emission efficiency of land use intensity while carbon emission efficiency of land use structure are relatively low.On the whole,the spatial clustering phenomenon of carbon emission efficiency of land use intensity carbon emission efficiency is not significant.Local Indicator of Spatial Association analysis shows that carbon emission efficiency of land use intensity is higher in the northwest region represented by Xinjiang from 2006 to 2009,and provinces in which carbon emission efficiency is low spatially gathered in the Central region from 2009 to 2014.However,carbon emission efficiency of land use structure in China shows obviously spatial clustering phenomenon.Local Indicator of Spatial Association analysis demonstrates that clustering phenomenon mainly appears as"L-L" area which centralizing in the northwest region from 2009 to 2014,and other spatial distribution types are not obvious.(5)Land use carbon emission convergence varies from areas,and different convergence models show different convergence state in the same region.The result of ?convergence and absolute ? convergence shows that it is more easily to converge in large regional scale,but the speed is relatively low,and the smaller the regional divisions are,the more significant differences the convergence characteristic are.The results of conditional ? convergence show that ? convergence existing in the entire country and the East,Central,and West regions from 2005 to 2014.Factors which influence national conditional ? convergence include economic developing level,energy intensity,globalization and industrial structure.The East region influence conditional ?convergence factors are population and globalization,while those in the Central region are energy intensity and industrial structure,and only economic developing level in the West region.From the eight regions divisions,excepting the Eastern coastal and the Northwestern regions,other six regions have shown conditional ? convergence,only the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River regions have significant factors,which are economic developing level,economic developing level and energy intensity respectively.Finally,according to the conclusions above and learning from the domestic and foreign experience,putting forward carbon emission reduction countermeasures both from the views of improving the carbon emission efficiency of land use and coordinating the carbon reduction measures in other industries with the actual situation of China.Possible innovation of this paper can be listed in three aspects as follows.Firstly,using Urban Greenhouse Gas Accounting Tool to account carbon emission from nature and man-made sources comprehensively,and corresponding to the land use type to measure land use carbon emissions.Secondly,taking the carbon emission as an undesirable output to conduct effectiveness analysis through the method of SBM model and evaluating the efficiency of land use carbon emission comprehensively.Thirdly,to figure out the convergence path in China by adopting ? convergence and ? convergence analysis into China's land use carbon emission convergence. |
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