Research On The Calculation,convergence And Decoupling Of China's Regional Carbon Emissions Emitted By Energy Consumption

Development is the foundation and key to solve all problems.Since the reform and opening-up,China's economy has grown rapidly,and has become the second largest economy in the world,even the largestone if measured by purchasing power parity.In a long period of time,China's economic growth is driven by the investment of resources and energy,consuming a large amount of energy.It has also paid large price of resources and environment with the economic development.China's carbon emissions account for nearly 30% of the global proportion.Carbon emissions in China are larger than the total of the United States,India and Russia.The transformation and upgrading of the economy and the needs of people for a better life are the basic state of China.China is facing the dual pressure and dilemma of economic growth and carbon emission reduction,which has become an urgent issue to solve.The research on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions has attracted the attention of scholars and policymakers,and is the focus of academic research.The theoretical basis includes the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis,the convergence hypothesis and the carbon emission decoupling theory.However,based on these theories,the academic circle has not yet reached a consistent conclusion on the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.Through literature review,academia has done a lot of research on the convergence and decoupling of carbon emissions.Most of the western research on carbon emissions convergence is based on the index of per capita carbon emissions,and the results are consistent.In recent years,there are many studies on the convergence of carbon emissions in China,but the conclusions are different because of the gap of selection of carbon emissions and the sources of carbon emissions in the literature.China has a large population,with unbalanced distribution among provinces and high mobility.The per capita carbon emission index has some defects used in the regional carbon emission convergence research in China.Chinese officials have not published the national and provincial carbon emissions data,which makes the great difference in carbon emission data used in the research,resulting different conclusions of carbon emissions related research.The existing literatures get basically consistent with the conclusions of carbon emissions decoupling,namely China's carbon emissions are in a weak decoupling state.But most of the literature uses the Tapio decoupling index,which is constructed by the ratio of carbon dioxide and GDP growth rate,is applicable to the relative emission reduction of carbon emissions,which is essentially“speed decoupling”.It is necessary to discuss the absolute decoupling index of carbon emission and economic growth,called “amount decoupling”,with the reduction target changing from relative emission reduction to absolute emission reduction.According to the carbon emission intensity change rate and GDP growth rate,dividesamount decoupling state into different types.As the saying goes “being not quantified is not managed”.By analyzing the existing literatureson carbon emissions,exams the relatively scientific calculation method of carbon emissions emitted by energy consumption is basis of energy-saving emission reduction policy-making and research.On the basis of analyzing and summarizing the existing problems in the current carbon emission calculation,this paper attempts to calculate the carbon emissionswith 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories(2006 IPCC Guidelines)and the 2011 Guidelines for the compilation of provincial greenhouse gas inventories(Trial Implementation)(provincial Guidelines)as the basic frame.The calculation method is improved,and the calculated carbon emissions can objectively and accurately reflect the actual carbon emissionsemitted by energy consumption,and provide the data basis for the follow-up study in this paper.The carbon emissions emitted by energy consumption in China in 1991—2015 is calculated and compared with the carbon emission data issued by the international institutions,which proves the rationality and feasibility of the improved carbon emission calculation method.Secondly,based on the convergence theory and the spatial distribution characteristics of regional carbon emissions,two spatial weight matrices are constructed,and space lag model(SLM)and spatial error model(SEM)are used to test the convergence of regional carbon emission intensity.Thirdly,based on the shortage of “speed decoupling”theory,the decoupling index of regional carbon emissions and economic growth is discussed from the perspective of the relationship between the decrease of carbon emission intensity and the GDP growth rate.According to the relationship between carbon emission intensity decline rate and GDP growth rate educts the “amount decoupling”theory between carbon emissions and economic growth,constructsa decoupling "possibility curve".According to the carbon emissions intensity change rate and GDP growth rate,attempts to dividesamount decoupling state into 8 types.Using the “amount decoupling”theory,carbon emission intensity target are analyzed.Based on the amount decoupling index,a panel data model is built to analyze the factors influencing the decoupling of carbon emissions.Finally,according to the conclusions of this study,puts forward policy recommendations to promote the transformation of carbon emissions and economic growth from “dilemma” to “win-win zone”.The conclusions are as follows.First,with the 2006 IPCC guidelines and provincial guidelines as the basic framework,the improved calculation method of carbon emissions emitted by energy consumption is scientific and feasible.The source of energy data should be taken from the “energy balance sheet” in the China Energy Statistics Yearbook.The losses of two energy processing and conversion can be peeled off from the processing conversion matrix.The energy activity level data should be based on the terminal consumptions,adding the losses of energy processing and conversion,minusing the energy used as raw materials.The selection of energy categories should cover as many energy categories as possible without repeated calculation.The treatment of heat and Electricity energy has a great influence on the results of carbon emission calculation.The carbon emission factor of unit heat value energy should refer to the value published by the provincial guidelines.Second,during the sample period,China's carbon emission intensity decreases significantly,implying the performance of relative emission reduction is significant.The gap of carbon emission intensity among provincesis narrowing,while the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions are further widened.The features of three indicators of carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity vary greatly in the three regions,resulting from the gap between regional economies.It is also related to the calculation principle of producing land for carbon emissions,and does not consider the phenomenon of carbon emission leakage between regions.Third,there is no convergence phenomenon of carbon emissions as a whole in China,but there is local convergence in the eastern,middle and western regions,and there are obvious differences between the three regions.The decline rate of carbon emission intensity has negative impact on the other provinces in the eastern region,whilehas positive impact in the other regions.The middle region has the fastest convergence rate of carbon emission intensity,and the growth rate of GDP has a significant negative impact on convergence of carbon emissions intensity in the three regions.Fourth,during the sample period,the carbon emission decoupling state of three major regions and provinces shows“M” type characteristics.The decoupling index shows a growing trend,but the regional differences are large.Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei and other provinces could take the lead in the absolute amount decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions in the“13th Five-Year” period.The middle region firstly fulfills promise that carbon emission intensity decreases 60%~65% compared with that in 2005 by 2030.The reduction of energy intensity is the only positive driving factor for the decoupling of carbon emission intensity in three regions,and the other factors have different driving directions and driving strength in different regions.On the basis of previous research achievements,this paper studies the regional convergence and decoupling of carbon emissions emitted by energy consumption,and there may be innovations in the following aspects.First,tries hard to improve the calculation method of carbon emissions and verify that the improvement has a certain scientific nature,which provides relatively objective and accurate carbon emission data for the study of carbon emissions convergence and decoupling.Second,two spatial weight matrices are constructed,and two spatial econometric models are applied to study the convergence of carbon emission intensity and some meaningful conclusions are obtained.Third,as China's carbon emission reduction target is changing from relative emission reduction to absolute emission reduction,constructs the absolute decoupling model between carbon emissions and economic growth.