| Urbanization is an inevitable trend in the development of human civilization.Since the reform and opening up,the level of urbanization in China has continued to increase,and the economy has continued to grow.However,with the rapid economic growth and the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization,the ecological environment of the city has also been increasingly damaged,especially the serious air pollution phenomenon of "smog",which not only harms people’s health.Health will also damage the surrounding ecological environment and affect the sustainable development of the urban complex ecosystem.Smog has become a major problem in the ecological environment crisis and has attracted widespread attention from the whole society.The haze pollution phenomenon in Jinan is very serious.It has been ranked among the"Top Ten Polluting Cities" in the country since 201 3.In 2017,it was designated as one of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution channel transmission city by the Ministry of Environmental Protection（ie,a "2+26" city）.Jinan can be used as a typical city for studying smog problems.In this study,from the aspects of haze pollution,human health risk loss,ecological environment damage value and relationship with economic growth,jinan city as an example,the whole chain assessment was carried out,and the human health hazards and ecological environment damage were quantitatively evaluated.Firstly,we discussed and analyzed the main sources of haze pollution in Jinan;secondly,based on the exposure-response coefficient and relative risk model,estimated the changes in the health effects of each health terminal of the population in Jinan,nd adopted the willingness to pay method and the disease cost method on the health effects Carried out a monetary characterization,estimated the health and economic loss of haze pollution;thirdly,based on the virtual governance cost method,carried out a quantitative assessment of the ecological environmental damage value of the haze pollution in Jinan,and carried out the ecological environmental damage value from the regional scale and the industry scale;finally,With the help of the environmental Kuznets curve,the relationship and law between haze pollution and economic growth in Jinan are analyzed and explored on an interannual scale.The specific research content is as follows:First,the source analysis of haze pollution.The natural and man-made factors that contribute to the smog in Jinan are discussed.Natural factors refer to topographic and climatic factors,human factors include industrial layout,road traffic planning and key pollution sources,and key pollution sources include coal burning,motor vehicle exhaust,waste gas in industrial production,dust in construction projects and seasonal straw burning.The main sources and contribution rates of PM2.5 and PM10 in Jinan were analyzed from the annual scale and seasonal scale.From the perspective of the annual scale,the largest contribution rate to PM2.5 in 2016 and 2017 was coal burning（31.0%）and motor vehicle exhaust（32.6%）,and the largest contribution to PM10 was dust（29.0%and 34.2%）.On a seasonal scale,the heating season contributed the most to PM2.5 and PM10 with coal（34.8%and 27.5%）;the non-heating season and the wind and sand season contributed the most to PM2.5 with motor vehicle exhaust（38.4%and 30.3%）,and the largest contributor to PM10 was dust（36.4%and 53.8%）.In addition,a fault tree system for the causes of smog in Jinan is constructed,which more intuitively and scientifically analyzes the causes of smog in Jinan.Second,the health and economic loss assessment of haze pollution.This study selected eight categories of premature death（chronic effect death and acute effect death）,hospitalization（respiratory system disease and cardiovascular disease）,outpatient（internal medicine and pediatrics）and illness（chronic bronchitis and acute bronchitis）.The health terminal is evaluated.The results showed that in 2016,the changes in health effects caused by PM2.5 pollution in Jinan City were 88,426（95%CI:33,827～133,791）,accounting for 1.22%（95%CI:0.47%～1.85%）of the total population.Among them,the number of patients with acute bronchitis was the largest,as high as 64,151（95%Cl:24,122～96,430）,accounting for 72%of the total health effects;the number of patients with chronic bronchitis and the number of deaths from chronic effects ranked second and third respectively.The number of deaths from acute effects was the least,only 684（95%CI:326～1056）.Monetizing the health effects,in 2016,the health economic losses caused by PM2.5 pollution in Jinan City totaled 14883.106 million yuan（95%CI:553319.0～23327290000）,accounting for 2.28%of GDP（95%CI:0.85%-3.57%）.Among them,the economic loss of chronic effect death is the largest,up to 9,403,925,000 yuan（95%CI:321,195.2～1,540,684,500 yuan）,accounting for 63%of the total health economic loss;followed by chronic bronchitis,the economic loss is 3,808,896,000 yuan（95%CI:155313.6～5346432 thousand yuan）,accounting for 26%;the economic loss of acute effect death is significantly lower than that of chronic effect death,but it still ranks third,accounting for 9%;the economic loss of acute bronchitis disease Significantly lower than chronic bronchitis,accounting for only 1%;the economic losses of the other four health terminals are relatively small,accounting for about 1%in total.Third,the evaluation of the ecological environment damage value of haze pollution.Combined with the "Technical Guidelines for Environmental and Economic Accounting in China",SO2,NOx,smoke（powder）dust and VOCs are selected as the evaluation objects.The results showed that in 2016,the emission of smoke（powder）dust was the highest among the four major pollutants in Jinan haze（51569.85t）,followed by VOCs and NOx（32083.50t and 29347.49t）,and SO2 was the lowest（22838.98t）.Using the modified treatment cost coefficient method,the unit treatment costs of SO2,NOx,smoke（powder）dust and VOCs were calculated as 805.48 yuan/ton,7062.90 yuan/ton,455.68 yuan/ton and 30253.33 yuan/ton,respectively.Based on the results of emissions and unit treatment cost,it is calculated that the total virtual treatment cost of smog pollutants in Jinan is as high as 1,219,806,600 yuan,of which VOCs is the highest（970,632,600 yuan）,followed by NOx（207,278,400 yuan）,smoke（powder）)dust and SO2 are relatively low.After adjustment of the environmental function sensitivity coefficient,the suggested value of the amount of ecological environment damage（eco-environmental restoration cost）caused by haze pollution in Jinan in 2016 is 3,659,419,800 yuan,accounting for 0.56%of GDP.The results of regional scale refinement show that the top three are Licheng District,Shanghe County and Lixia District,and the damage to the ecological environment is 1,423,345,200 yuan,940,881,300 yuan,and 845,015,700 yuan respectively,much higher than other areas,accounting for a total of 87.70%of the total amount of ecological environment damage.The industry-scale refinement results show that the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has the highest amount of ecological environmental damage（1,334,270,900 yuan）,followed by petroleum,coal and other fuel processing industries（854,686,900 yuan）.In addition,chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing Industry,electricity,heat production and supply industry,chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry,and non-metallic mineral products industry are also relatively high,respectively 514.0201 million yuan,401.8779 million yuan,290.4202 million yuan and 199.4056 million yuan,the above six industries A total of 98.23%of the total amount of ecological environmental damage.Fourth,the relationship between haze pollution and economic growth.This study adopts the Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC）research method,and based on the economic data and haze pollution related data of each year since 2001,it has proved the relationship between the haze pollution and economic growth of Jinan City on a time scale.Relationship between.Except that there is no obvious relationship between total smoke（dust）emissions and GDP per capita,the relationship between the remaining five indicators and GDP per capita shows two types of EKC:inverted U-shaped and inverted N-shaped.Specifically,there is an obvious inverted U-shaped curve relationship between industrial waste gas emissions and per capita GDP.In 2011,there was an inflection point（4555×108m3,64331 yuan）;there was an inverted N-shaped curve relationship between the annual average concentration of NO2 and per capita GDP.,The inflection point appeared in 2006（21 μg/m3,36394 yuan）and 2013（59 μg/m3,76,044 yuan）;the relationship between total SO2 emissions and GDP per capita showed a weaker inverted N-curve relationship,which was more obvious in 2011 The inflection point（120605 tons,64331 yuan）;the relationship between the annual average SO2 concentration and per capita GDP also shows a weak inverted N-curve relationship.In 2013,there was a more obvious inflection point（93 μg/m3,76044 yuan）;PM10 The relationship between annual average concentration and per capita GDP also shows a weak inverted N-curve relationship,with a more obvious inflection point（191 μg/m3,76044 yuan）in 2013.The research results show that Jinan City has reached the turning point of EKC from 2011 to 2013.With the further improvement of environmental management measures in the future,the ecological environment quality of Jinan City is expected to be further improved.In addition,the study found that the EKC turning point of the relationship between environmental stock indicators and per capita GDP appeared two years later than the EKC turning point of the relationship between environmental flow indicators and per capita GDP,revealing the different laws of environmental stock indicators and environmental flow indicators in the EKC turning point..This study has identified the main sources of haze pollution in Jinan,which is helpful for the public to have a clearer understanding of the causes of haze weather;it quantitatively evaluates the health and economy of Jinan residents caused by haze pollution Loss,which is conducive to the public and medical institutions to have a clearer understanding of the harm caused by haze pollution to human health and the monetized loss.The assessment results can be used for government departments to formulate similar policies for haze health economic compensation and haze pollution prevention and control Relevant policies provide data support and scientific reference;the value of ecological environmental damage caused by haze pollution in Jinan has been quantitatively evaluated,and the amount of ecological environmental damage has been refined from the regional and industry scales,effectively reflecting the need for restoration The economic cost of the damaged ecological environment.The evaluation results can provide data support and scientific basis for government departments to formulate policies related to haze pollution prevention and control more rationally and specifically;The characteristics of the environmental Kuznets curve analyze and clarify the relationship and laws between Jinan’s economic growth and haze pollution.which is conducive to the formulation and improvement of environmental management related policies and regulations by government departments,and better achieve win-win between economic growth and environmental protection.To a certain extent,this study fills the gap in the whole chain evaluation of urban smog pollution in China,and has good scientific and practical guiding value for Jinan City and China’s urban smog pollution management. |
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