| China is one of the countries rich in coal resources in the world.Coal has always been the basic energy in China.The stable supply of coal provides the basic guarantee for China's energy security.From the supply side,the problem of large coal production capacity and unreasonable structure is prominent,and the contradiction between regional supply and demand is serious.From the demand side,the proportion of coal in the primary energy continues to decline,but constrained by China's energy endowment,coal as China's main energy,the total demand is still large.In recent years,the coal industry burden,low efficiency,low concentration and lack of industrial chain extension issues outstanding,industrial expansion excessive.China has entered the middle and late stages of industrialization,and the economy is facing a phased transition from a high-speed growth normal to a medium-high-speed growth normal,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of coal industry development on TFP in China's coal cities and its transmission mechanism,and to find out the path of industrial transformation in China's coal cities,to promote high quality development,and to build a harmonious society in an all-round way.Based on the current situation of coal industry development in China,this paper analyzes the impact of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP and its transmission mechanism.Based on the endogenous growth model with "Learning by Doing" effect,a mathematical model is established,which integrates the two possibilities of coal industry development inhibition and TFP into the same mechanism framework,a broader look at coal industry development in China's coal cities.The transmission mechanism of the non-linear impact of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP is analyzed from the two paths of the industrial structure evolution and the factor allocation efficiency.Using panel data of 44 China's coal cities from 2003 to 2017,panel regression model,recursive equation model and threshold model were established to empirically test the impact of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP and its transmission mechanism,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The coal industry development in China's coal cities has a nonlinear relationship with their TFP,and the negative influence of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP is conditional,the key impact condition is a proxy elasticity parameter that represents the efficiency of factor allocation across sectors of an economy.In the revised "Dutch Disease" model,the transfer effect and expenditure effect of coal industry development are explained to guide the flow of production factors between the manufacturing and service sectors,this evolution of the industrial structure is one of the transmission paths of the coal industry development's nonlinear influence on the TFP.The change of labor and capital allocative efficiency caused by the coal industry development in China's coal cities is another transmission path of the non linear influence of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP.(2)The coal industry development in China's coal cities has an inverted U nonlinear effect on their TFP in China's coal cities.There is a "Curse" inflection point,when the coal industry development is below the inflection point,it shows the "Resource Bless " state,and when the coal industry expands excessively and exceeds the inflection point,the "Resource Curse " effect appears.The weakening effect of the system has intensified the restraining effect of the coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP.The extrusion effect of coal industry development on technological progress is not conducive to the improvement of TFP.The number of "Resource Blessing" coal cities shows a U-shaped trend,and the "Resource Curse" in China's coal cities is gradually easing.The process of coal resource prosperity and government intervention in the western coal cities have intensified the restraint of coal industry development in coal cities on their TFP,and the restraint of coal industry development in coal cities on their TFP is less.(3)The evolution of industrial structure has played a conductive role in the influence of coal industry development on TFP in China's coal cities.In the "Dutch Disease" model,the expenditure effect of the service sector is slightly less than the transfer effect,the coal industry development has to some extent crowded out the development of the service sector,and the manufacturing industry has been severely shrunk by the "Double Deindustrialization",this evolution of the industrial structure is one of the reasons why the coal industry development has had such an impact on the TFP in China's coal cities.There are regional differences in the transmission effect of industrial structure evolution on the influence of coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP in China's coal cities,the western sample group and the overall sample group have the same effect,and there are significant differences in the central and eastern regions,the expenditure effect of the service sector is greater than that of the transfer effect.The coal industry development and the service sector,and the "Dual Deindustrialization" of the manufacturing sector,have aggravated the restraining effect of the coal industry development in China's coal cities on their TFP.(4)Factor allocative efficiency plays a conductive role in the U shape influence of coal industry development on TFP in China's coal cities.The coal industry development has a crowding-out effect on human capital and financial development,which leads to the maldevelopment of labor and capital market,and reduces the efficiency of labor and capital allocation.Human capital and financial development have a threshold effect on the impact of coal industry development on TFP in China's coal cities,and when the level of human capital and financial development is low,coal industry development in China's coal cities restrains their TFP.With the development of human capital and finance,the coal industry development in China's coal cities has promoted the transformation of their TFP.There are regional differences in the transmission of factor allocative efficiency in the influence of coal industry development on TFP.In the West,the efficiency of labor allocation is the key to the relationship between the coal industry development in China's coal cities and their TFP,and the change of capital allocative efficiency is the main reason that the coal industry development in the middle and East area affects the TFP. |
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