Research On Provincial Coal Consumption Control Target Allocation Based On Total Factor Efficiency

With the rapid development of China's economy,the problem of atmospheric pollution and carbon dioxide emissions which caused by the coal-based energy structure has become serious increasingly.In 2016,China proposed to control coal consumption in 2020 to be less than 4.1 billion tons.However,due to the lack of integrated provincial control targets,the coal control policies were inconsistent with the regional development in some provinces.How to define the provincial coal control responsibilities and formulate specific control targets effectively,so as to form a counter-force mechanism for total coal consumption control is still a problem to be solved.This dissertation provided a regional coal control decision-making basis for this country by taken the analysis of coal consumption efficiency as a pointcut and allocated the coal-control targets at the provincial level in China in 2020.This dissertation first introduced China's coal production and consumption status at national and provincial level,respectively.Then a coal consumption characteristic index system was established.According to the characteristics of coal consumption in each province,fuzzy C-means clustering was used to divide the regions of China.Secondly,the SBM-DEA model and the meta-frontier method were combined to measure China's total factor coal consumption efficiency.Then the dynamic changes of the total factor coal efficiency and the catch-up effect between regions was analyzed by meta-frontier Malmquist index.It was found that under the group frontier,the efficiency of the medium-level group was the highest,and the efficiency gap between the provinces within the group was the smallest,but there was still a large technical gap with the high-level group;the lowest-level group had the lowest efficiency with the largest efficiency difference within group.Under the mata-frontier,the total factor coal consumption efficiency of the high-level group was the highest among the three groups,followed by the medium-level group and the lowest-level group.In general,China's total factor coal consumption efficiency showed a falling trend first and then rising.The main reason for the increase of efficiency for the high-and medium-level group was the technical progress of the group,and for the low-level group was the reduction of technological gap.Finally,through integrated the total factor coal consumption efficiency into the coal allocation system,the centralized DEA and entropy allocation model were used to allocate the 2020 coal control targets of each province in China respectively and the allocation results were compared.It was found that the centralized DEA focused on controlling the coal consumption of high-level group strictly,and gave a larger increment of coal to medium-level group.The entropy allocation method preferred to indicators of coal consumption status and energy substitution feasibility.For high-level and medium-level group,they obtained more coal consumption quotas,while low-level group had to take more strict coal reduction policy.Therefore,under the recently circumstances that China's regional development is quite different,the centralized DEA,which can consider the differences in regional efficiency and development comprehensively,is an ideal method for the allocation of coal control targets.