Evolution Trend And Model Of Urban Residents' Low-Carbon Travel Based On Game Theory

The large amount of greenhouse gases,such as carbon dioxide,will cause global warming and increase the probability of extreme climate,which will have a negative impact on the survival and development of human beings around the world.As the largest carbon dioxide emitter at present,China has put forward the grand goal of achieving the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.Transportation industry is one of the important sources of greenhouse gas emissions,and urban areas are the key areas of transportation carbon emissions due to population concentration,a large number of motor vehicles and dense road network.Therefore,urban transportation carbon emissions control plays an important role in reducing carbon emissions of the whole society.At the same time,because of the wide area and uneven economic development in different regions,there are some significant gaps between urban comprehensive traffic situation and traffic management level.Studying the evolution trend of urban residents' low-carbon travel can provide theoretical support for reducing traffic carbon emissions and achieving the long-term healthy development of urban low-carbon transportation.Based on the consideration of urban comprehensive traffic conditions,residents' low-carbon awareness and other factors,this paper constructed a model based on game theory to predict the development trend of urban residents' low-carbon travel and carry out experimental verification.The main contents are as follows:Firstly,on the basis of literature retrieval and game theory,the evolution mechanism of urban residents' low-carbon travel was analyzed.From the perspective of the historical development of urban transportation,combined with the differences in economic level and population size of different types of cities,this paper identified the typical state of urban residents' travel history,and analyzed the development process and characteristics of urban residents' low-carbon travel.Considering the background of urban comprehensive transportation,this paper discussed its evolution path and internal and external factors that affect its development,and theoretically analyzed the elements,links and characteristics of urban residents' low-carbon travel evolution from the perspective of game theory,so as to reveal the formation and evolution mechanism of urban residents' low-carbon travel status.Secondly,to describe the choice of the travelers in urban transportation system under the influence of low-carbon factors,and the development trend of low-carbon travel after repeated games,the model was established based on multidimensional and evolutionary game theory.The decision-makings of travelers were divided into two dimensions: choosing travel mode and choosing whether to accept low-carbon concept.Based on the internal and external factors and evolution mechanism of low-carbon travel,the comprehensive travel payoffs of low-carbon and high-carbon travel group were analyzed.Then the multi-dimensional dynamic comprehensive game model and replication dynamic equation of various strategies were established.Through theoretical derivation,the simplified form of multidimensional game model and the singular points of the differential equation formed by the corresponding partial derivative matrix were obtained,and the stabilities of these singular points were analyzed.Furthermore,the model parameters were calibrated,and the evolutionary stability strategies of residents' low-carbon travel game were simulated by numerical simulation to explore the evolution trend of residents' low-carbon travel in different scenarios.This paper explored the evolution trend of residents' low-carbon travel by studying the evolution path of the two groups of people under the change of relevant parameters and discussing the impact of the differences of travelers' low-carbon awareness level and urban comprehensive traffic conditions on the system.Thirdly,according to the survey on willingness to travel in low-carbon and the learning behavior of urban residents in the process of travel game,the nonlinear dynamic system equations of strategy adjustment were established.Through theoretical analysis,mathematical model derivation and numerical simulation,the change process and trend of the quantities of low-carbon travelers in the nonlinear dynamic system were simulated.Evolution trend diagram,parameter bifurcation diagram and corresponding parameter maximum Lyapunov exponent diagram were used to explore the long-term dynamic evolution process and chaotic characteristics of the system.Fourthly,based on the construction of traffic scenarios corresponding to different types of cities,this paper designed the experimental scheme and recruits experimental participants to carry out the experiment.The experimenters sent out the incentive tendency questionnaire,collected the statistics and determined the incentive methods.Then,the low-carbon travel awareness of the experimental participants was investigated.On this basis,the comprehensive traffic scenarios of different types of cities were described and the experiments were carried out in each field.The experimenters recorded and counted the experimental data,and compared them with the model simulation data to verify whether the simulation results were consistent with the process and results of the travel behavior in the experiment.Finally,the game elements and traveler learning strategies were discussed,and the methods to improve the matching degree of the model to low-carbon travel behavior were proposed.Based on the analysis of travel influencing factors,this paper discussed the evolution mechanism of urban residents' low-carbon travel and established a limited rational comprehensive game model which combines evolutionary game with multidimensional game and chaos theory.In this research,the evolution equilibrium states of urban residents who choose low-carbon and high-carbon travel modes under different low-carbon awareness estimates were simulated,as well as the formation process,formation conditions and possible evolution trend of these states.Furthermore,the paper analyzed the influence of urban comprehensive traffic conditions on the evolution equilibrium state and puts forward the countermeasures for the development of low-carbon traffic in different types of cities.Finally,the behavior game experiments are carried out to verify the equilibrium state of low-carbon travel choice and the formation process of these states.This paper enriches the research content of urban lowcarbon travel and the traffic travel game theory and provides the theoretical basis for the cities in the development of transportation policy and facilities construction decision-making,which contributes to the realization of the long-term goal of carbon neutral of the whole society and has certain theoretical and practical value.