Research On Full Lifetime Risk Management Model And Risk Management Information System Of Wind Power Project

Wind power has become the protagonist of changing energy consumption structure increasingly, this industry has made significant progress, but as with any industry, when wind power industry bring the opportunity for the wind power generation enterprise it also brews unknown risks. For wind power companies, a standard full lifetime of wind project includes prophase, construction period, the production operation maintenance period, risk exists in various stages and transfers from phase to phase. Risk element of one stage may cause the loss of another stage. At present, the wind power project risk is an important factor restricting the development of wind power industry in our country, the risk management system of full lifetime of wind power project is absent for practical effective guidance to wind power development. Therefore, research on wind power project risk management in the full lifetime of wind power project becomes urgent to break the wind power development difficulties, and is also a necessary condition for the healthy development of China's wind power industry.In this dissertation, for wind power project risk management problems, it takes the full lifetime of wind power project as the route, takes the risk passing theory in the research, builds risk elements transmission model in the earlier stage of wind power project, risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model in the construction period of wind power project, risk management model in the operational phase of wind power project, posing risk management information system construction scheme for the full lifetime of wind power project. It is to investigate risk management system in the early stage, construction stage, operational stage of the wind power project, to provide reference for wind power project managers when they make decisions, to make wind power project risk can be controlled, to ensure the smooth implementation of the project and the realization of project objectives.(1)Full lifetime risk management theory and industry development analysis of wind power projectOn the basis of the introduction of the basic theory of risk and risk transfer theory, risk management structural model for the full lifetime of wind power project is presented, combined with the related research data, literature, industry research reports, statistics, related policies and regulations, adopting the qualitative method, identifying and analyzing the SWOT factors influencing the sustainable development of China's wind power industry, analyzing wind project risk characteristics under the background the industry sustainable development.(2)Building risk model in the earlier stage of wind power projectAccording to the characteristics in the earlier stage of wind power project, analyzing the distribution of risk elements, on this basis, proposes the risk elements transmission structure in the earlier stage of wind power project, then build the risk element transmission model based on the RBF neural network in this stage and the example simulation results show that the model has validity and feasibility. It provides decision basis for risk managers in the earlier stage of wind power project and provides the premise condition for the subsequent related to risk management research in the construction phase and operational phase of wind power project.(3)Building risk model in the construction period of wind power projectBased on the analysis of time-cost-quality risk characteristics in the capital construction period of wind power project, this dissertation established a time-cost-quality risk elements transmission equilibrium optimization model for wind power project,which determines the decision variables and objective function, provides the theory and the solution method of simulated annealing-particle swarm, taking a wind power project as an example, calculating the critical path and the time limit through the analysis of the construction network program, compiling program in MATLAB to solve the model and obtain the Pareto solution, and generating three-dimensional Pareto Figures. It does not only verifies the feasibility of the optimization model,but also provides effective decision-making basis for wind power project managers.(4)Building risk management model in the operational phase of wind power projectBuilding environmental impact model based on OWA operator. The science and effectiveness of the model is validated by example analysis, which can provide targeted improvement measures for wind farm construction and operation. Buliding the wind-thermal power co-generation risk management model in the micro-grid with considering the reliability, operating cost,maintenance charge,extension cost of micro-grid. And then the expansion planning program in a micro-grid with five nodes in ten years was simulated using the Harmony Search. The simulation result indicates that the expansion planning model of co-generation system and the Harmony Search method are feasible and effectiveness.(5)Posing risk management information system construction and implementation scheme for the full lifetime of wind power projectThe user requirements analysis, risk business process analysis, data flow analysis are conducted for RMS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The overall design, network application model design, function module design, data table structure design are conducted for RMIS of the full lifetime of wind power project. The eight steps of system implementation is put forward then implements the wind power project full lifetime RMIS. It provides a solution for the smooth implementation of entire wind power project RMIS, enhances the practical of risk management theoryfor the lifecycle of wind power project, and provides information platform for the full lifetime risk management.