| The Paris Agreement provides an international framework for holding the average global temperature increase to well below 2? above pre-industrial levels at the end of this century,and has been implemented through programmes of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDC)via collaboration of among parties(nations,regions and sectors)worldwide.The building sector is the second largest energy consumer in the world.The energy consumed in its operation period is an important trigger for carbon emission,environmental pollution,and resource consumption,and one of the key issues threatening the world sustainable development.Residential building energy consumption accounts for 62%of the total energy consumption in China's building sector.With the rapid development trend of China's urbanization,residential building energy consumption will continue to grow in the future.At the same time,modelling of energy-environment-enconomy system at the spatial scale has become major issues in the decision-making of global sustainable development and climate change goals.Based on the above needs and background,this study focuses on the end-use energy consumption activities of residential building energy demand side,and renewable energy power and central heating system on energy supply side,and their energy-saving and emission reduction potential and the corresponding co-benefit and trade-off effects are discussed.Taking energy as the core of correlation,the modelling of energy-environment-economic system of residential buildings is studied by using a composite and interdisciplinary method,which provides assessment methods and quantitative basis for the formulation of sustainable development and climate change policies.The work is as follows:(1)Aiming at the uncertainty of decarbonization pathway prediction of end-use energy consumption activity on the residential building energy consumption side under the carbon emission reduction target,this study is carried out from the perspective of policy mechanism and model for supporting robust decision making.From the perspective of emission reduction policy mechanism,we propose an analytical framework to allocate the overall national emission reduction goal at the provincial level of the residential building sector.From the perspective of model technology,we establishe an multi-objective optimization model under uncertainty(MOOU)for forecasting the decarbonization path of end-use energy consumption activity on the residential building energy consumption side.Then.based on the MOOU model,the co-benefits of emission reductions of PM2.5 and SO2 are calculated by considering energy as the correlation core.The proposed framework and model is then applied to provide in-depth insights into implementation barriers of 13 types of mitigation policies towards achieving INDC targets in nine provinces from four climate regions in China in 2010-2030.The results show that the carbon emission of residential buildings in Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Beijing will peak before 2030.In particular,the CO2 emissions from cooling energy consumption of total building stocks will continually increase.The proportion of PM2.5 and SO2 emissions significantly decrease in northern China,with Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Shandong reduced by 21-237 Kt and 1.3-2.8 Mt in 2030.respectively.Furthermore,improvements of building thermal efficiency and energy mix dominate the mitigation potential in northern China,while the southern China largely depends on the improvement of the efficiency of home appliances.The differences in measures'mitigation effectiveness cause that southern China provinces have higher risks for achieving the subnational INDC targets compared to northern China.(2)Aiming at understanding the hidden energy,environmental and economic footprints in the life cycle of renewable energy power(wind and solar power)on the residential building energy supply side,policy makers need to analyze their trade-off effects from the perspective of nexus and life cycle perspective for achieving a more systematic policy.Therefore,a many-objective optimization model for analyzing the nexus of energy-environment-economy footprints in the life cycle of renewable energy power is proposed,which aims to assess the optimal control strategy of renewable energy power that driving the decarbonization pathway of residential building sector and the trade-off effect of its hidden energy,environmental and economic footprints in its life cycle.The optimal results show that the achievement of the carbon emission peak of urban residential buildings in Shandong province need 25111MW and 27519MW of installed solar and wind energy capacity in 2030,respectively.It consumes 1.0E+9GJ of energy consumption and 8.2E+13 RMB of investment cost.and generates 1.3E+8t CO2 eq.of GWP,3.8E+8t SO2 eq.of AP,2.2E+8t PO4 eq.of EP,1.4E+7t C2H4 eq.of POCP,2.7E+7t 1,4-DB eq.of HTP environmental impact.The trade-off effect is manifested in two aspects.On one hand,the trade-off is found between carbon emission reduction benefits and life cycle carbon emission.On the other hand,the trade-off is found among different energy,environment and economic footprint.Taking the amount of carbon reduction of 2030 as reference,the carbon emission reduction payback time for the life cycle of renewable energy power(wind and solar power)is 5.5 years.Trade-off effects are found for wind energy and solar power between life cycle energy consumption,GWP,AP,EP versus POCP,HTP and investment cost.(3)Aiming at analyzing the driving factors of the energy consumption of district heating system,and the environmental co-benefit and trade-off effect among driving factors of environemental pollutants(CO2,SO2 and NOx),this study proposes model for investigating the drivers of the district heating energy and their environmental co-benefit and trade-off effects from the perspectives in terms of energy intensity,heating energy structure,heat production technology structure,heating area and population based on the the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)method.Futhermore,aiming at the sustainable development ablility of district heating system,the decoupling model based on Tapio method is established for analyzing the decoupling status between the district heating energy of the building sector(DHEB)and economy.The results of cases of 15 provinces in northern China and Jing-Jin-Ji region show that during 2004-2016,heating area effect and population effect are the main driving forces of the DHEB growth,and energy intensity effect is the most important factor to reduce the DHEB.The shares of coal and heating boilers positively contribute to the increase in 2004-2008,and have a negative effect in 2008-2016.The complete reverse trend is found in the shares of gas and combined heat and power(CHP)during the same period.These results are largely associated with the implementation of "coal to gas" and the "elimination of old boilers" pushed by the Chinese government.In addition,the main decoupling state between the DHEB and economic growth is weak decoupling,which means that the development of regional heating system in China no longer at the expense of higher energy consumption.There are co-benefit effects in reducing CO2,SO2 and NOx emissions by heating energy intensity effect,coal emission factor effect,oil emission factor effect,gas emission factor effect,the effect of share of heating boiler and effect of share of oil.Heating area effect,population effect,share of CHP effect and share of gas effect have cobenefit effect on increasing CO2,SO2 and NOx emissions.The effect of share of coal has trade-off effect,which will increase the emission of CO2 and SO2,while reduce the emission of NOx. |
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