Research On The Action Mechanism And Effect Evaluation Of Industry Policies For New Energy Vehicle In China

To deal with such pressure as energy shortage and environment pollution,many countries have attached great importance to New energy vehicle(NEV)industry and enact a series of incentive policies to support its development.NEV industry is one of strategic emerging industries in China.China has gradually established a comprehensive policy system covering industrial guidance,R&D support,regulations of production,preferential measures in finance and tax as well as infrastructure,to promote rapid development of NEV industry in China.With the support of industrial policy,Chinese NEV industry has made remarkable achievements.However,some serious problems also arise,including low cost performance,poor R&D capacity in key technologies,high dependence on subsidies,fraud in subsidies etc.,which generate disputes on necessity and efficiency of NEV industrial policy among industrial and academic communities.This paper sorts out the revolution history and applicability of theories related to industrial policy,makes discussion on application of industrial policy to strategic emerging industries and the direction for optimization in future,and builds up framework for industrial policy analysis based on the conclusion and extraction of theories related to industrial policy,so as to guide the formulation and optimization of industrial policy during the process of development.Based on analyzing the development status and policy system of NEV industry in a comparative manner,it establishes framework of analysis on effect mechanism of NEV industrial policy,and constructs framework system of industrial policy evaluation in four dimensions of target completion,effect,efficiency and influence with the systematic analysis.This paper makes comprehensive evaluation of NEV industrial policy and proposes specific suggestions on optimization and promotion of NEV industrial policy in China.The research contents include:(1)Establishing IPMES analysis framework for industrial policy from the view of evolution and developmentThis paper establishes IPMES(Industry-Policy-Mechanism-Evaluation-Suggestions)analysis framework for industrial policy,by sorting out the progress and adaptability of theories related to emergence,evolution and development of industrial policy,reviewing the evolution history of theories related to industrial policy,making conclusion and extraction of dynamic and phased characteristic of industrial policy,and deeply exploring the industrial policy optimization direction which means boundary integration between government and the market.The new analysis framework focuses on the formulation and optimization of industrial policy during the process of development,makes industrial policy to match phased and dynamic characteristic of industrial development,improves the pertinence and applicability of industrial policy,and provides methodology of formulation and optimization for industrial policy during the process of development.(2)Carrying out research and verification of mechanism of action of NEV industrial policyBased on the correlation research on the mechanism of action of other industrial policy,this paper builds up the analytical framework of the mechanism of action of NEV industrial policy from five factors of policy subject,policy instrument,policy effect,policy objective and policy environment.Based on this analytical framework,this paper made a systematic analysis on the mechanism of action of four major policies including R&D support policy,production specification policy,purchase encouragement policy and using promotion policy,which not only explored the mechanism process of how each industrial policy come into play from the point of economy,but also defined and verified the cause and effect correspondence between policy instrument and policy effect,working out the problem of weak correlation and logic issues between the input and output indexes in former policy assessment models,and setting up the foundation for the establishment of assessment target system in policy assessment chapter.(3)Building up NEV industrial policy assessment framework and conducts empirical researchesThis paper builds up the assessment framework of NEV industrial policy with multiple policy assessment methods from four dimensions of policy goal achievement,policy effect,policy efficiency and policy influence,giving consideration of both dual assessment criteria of fact and value and the implementation effect of expected and unexpected policies.According to the assessment framework,this paper made a comprehensive assessment on the expected and unexpected implementation effect of NEV industrial policy from the year of 2009 to 2017 by various data analysis methods as data envelopment analysis,distributed lag model,multiple regression analysis and double difference method.The assessment results show that NEV industrial policy in China is necessary and reasonable,but there are still with some prominent problems and need for improvement.(4)Propose targeted suggestions to optimize new energy vehicle industrial policy,and provide the reference and experience for the policy development and improvement of strategic emerging industryBased on the evaluation results of the new energy vehicle industrial policy,this paper fully considers the development status and policy requirements of China's new energy vehicle industry,summaries the action characteristics for the difference development phases of the emerging industries from the two mechanisms of “government” and “market”,and then proposes targeted policy suggestions for the adjustment of future industry policies.These targeted policy suggestions are proposed from the aspects of strengthening top-level design,guiding and supporting direction,increasing R&D support,strengthening infrastructure construction,enhancing industry administration,establishing long-term mechanism,enhancing environmental awareness,and keeping open and cooperation,etc.This paper also transplants the experience and lessons of NEV industrial policy to the strategic emerging industry,to clarify that the strategic emerging industry need the support of industrial policy and it is necessary to revise and improve the policy system.Different approaches will be carried out based on the different industry development phases and the different link of policy making.