Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Urban Resilience In Dianzhong Urban Agglomeration

Urban resilience is one of the important characteristics of urban system and has become one of the important research fields of urban system in recent years.On the basis of learning and applying relevant theories and drawing lessons from relevant research results,this paper studies the urban resilience of Dianzhong agglomeration.The Dianzhong agglomeration is a low-latitude plateau,borderland ethnic group,developing,scale missing,ecological fragile,mountain-dam form of urban agglomeration.This paper is the first to discuss and study urban resilience in Dianzhong agglomeration."Urban resilience" is becoming an important means of urban governance and risk prevention in various countries.China's 14 th Five-year Plan proposes to build resilient cities,improve the level of urban governance,and strengthen risk prevention and control in megacity governance.The steady development of cities plays a decisive role in regional sustainable development and the study of resilience is particularly important.Based on the review of urban resilience theory,this paper establishes an evaluation index system of urban resilience from social,economic and ecological dimensions by using qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation methods,combining the concept of urban resilience and the research framework of urban resilience.49 counties(cities and districts)in central Yunnan Urban agglomeration are taken as the research object.The spatial-temporal evolution of county resilience from 2005 to 2019 was analyzed,and the influencing factors were analyzed using geographically weighted regression model.At the same time,BP neural network model is used to predict the development of urban resilience in Dianzhong agglomeration,and then the improvement strategy is put forward.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The development of urban resilience in Dianzhong urban agglomeration has obvious imbalance and the overall level is not high,and most areas belong to low resilience cities.The high-value area had no obvious agglomeration before 2005,and the distribution was random and irregular.Since 2010,the high-value urban resilience areas have gradually concentrated in Wuhua district,Xishan district,Panlong district and Guandu district,and as time goes by,the high-value urban resilience areas have been concentrated in these cities,which indicates that the urban resilience of Wuhua district,Xishan district,Panlong district and Guandu district is strong and relatively stable.(2)The distribution pattern of high value areas of urban social resilience and economic resilience in Dianzhong Urban agglomeration was highly similar from 2005 to 2019,and they were distributed in Wuhua district,Xishan district,Panlong district,Guandu district,Chenggong district,Anning city and other county cities where the state and state governments were located.This shows that government functions and policies have a great influence on the development of social and economic resilience.The high values of ecological toughness are mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest of the Dianzhong urban agglomeration.Southwest China is located in the ailao Mountains,with natural ecological barriers,long sunshine time,high temperature,good rain and heat conditions,and high vegetation coverage,which has natural advantages over other regions in ecological conditions.(3)According to the distribution pattern of cold hot spots of urban resilience index,Wuhua district,Xishan district,Guandu district and Panlong district are hot spots,and the peripheral cold spots are cold spots.There are few hot spots of urban toughness in Dianzhong agglomeration,while other areas are widely distributed,showing obvious characteristics of "hot spot constant heat" and "cold spot region unfixed".(4)From the perspective of the influencing factors of urban resilience,economic development level,investment level and consumption level have the greatest positive impact on urban resilience;Industrial structure and ecological conservation level had the least positive impact on urban resilience.This indicates that economic factors play a decisive role in the level of urban resilience for the western border agglomerations.(5)The prediction index of urban resilience in Dianzhong urban agglomeration shows the same rule as the measurement index of urban resilience in spatial-temporal pattern evolution and distribution pattern of cold hot spots.The high values of social and economic resilience prediction indexes are concentrated in Wuhua district,Xishan district,Panlong district and Guandu district in central Yunnan city group.The high values of the ecological resilience prediction index were also concentrated in the northwest and southwest of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.In the distribution pattern of hot spots,there are also "hot spot constant heat" and "cold spot constant cold".This challenges the overall development of central Yunnan city group in the future.While pursuing internal development,we should actively seek external cooperation.On the one hand,it is necessary to seek the development opportunities of resource complementarity,industrial collaboration,mutual cooperation and multi-party participation with other cities in the region;we should also strengthen the construction of transportation channels,promote economic externality,and actively seek cooperation between provinces and cooperation opportunities with foreign countries.Above all,the paper toughness to city as the research subject,urban agglomeration in the middle of yunnan province as the demonstration area,with the help of a person relations theory,system theory,the adaptive cycle theory and perturbation Dun theory,etc.,to the county as the research scale,from the micro level,build the index system and the framework model of city toughness research,from the perspective of social,economic,ecological and comprehensive measure urban agglomeration in the central yunnan city toughness,Then,the spatial-temporal pattern evolution,influencing factors and prediction of urban resilience were studied and analyzed,and the urban resilience development strategy of central Yunnan urban agglomeration was put forward according to the actual situation of urban agglomeration in central Yunnan.