Analysis Of Spatial-Temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Urban Expansion In Golmud City

At present,China’s urbanization process has entered a fast lane,which means that the demand for urban construction land in China is growing,and urban space is also expanding rapidly.Under the background of rapid urbanization accompanied by the rapid expansion of urban construction land and the gradual expansion of the influence of the theory of"smart growth,"the cities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have the demand for reasonable and efficient expansion.Many scholars have carried out relevant research on large cities in central and eastern China such as Beijing and Shanghai,and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is relatively lack of empirical research.Based on this,this study tries to clarify the evolution process and influencing factors of urban construction land expansion in Golmud from 1980 to 2020,and provide reference for promoting the healthy development of Golmud and the orderly expansion of urban space.This paper takes the Qaidam Basin in Golmud city,of Qinghai Province as the research object.Based on the land use data and related statistical data in 1980,1990,2000,2010 and 2020,Arc GIS spatial analysis method is used to analyze the evolution process of Golmud urban spatial expansion.A stepwise regression model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of urban spatial expansion in Golmud by qualitative and quantitative methods.Based on the IDRISI software,the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use pattern of Golmud city in 2030 and 2040.Finally,some policy recommendations for future expansion of Golmud city were proposed based on the research results.Draw the following main conclusions:(1)In terms of the evolution of urban spatial expansion process in Golmud,although the scale of urban land use in Golmud and the main urban area has expanded year by year,the expansion amount is not large.In the past 40 years,the urban area has only expanded by 111.3 km~2,and the main urban area has only 21.17 km~2;the expansion speed of the urban area gradually increased,and the expansion intensity did not increase but decreased between 2010 and 2020.The expansion speed and intensity of the main urban area have been increasing.At the same time,the center of gravity of Golmud city shifted westward as a whole,and experienced filling expansion,marginal expansion and enclave expansion.(2)In terms of the influencing factors of Golmud urban spatial expansion,Golmud urban spatial expansion is affected by strategic position,military facilities,resource development,economic growth,population size,transportation construction,urban policy and natural environment.The natural environment factor is the original background of the spatial expansion of Golmud city;the strategic position and resource development are the decisive factors for the establishment and development of Golmud city.Economic growth is the dominant force of urban spatial expansion in Golmud;urban policy is the auxiliary force of urban spatial expansion in Golmud.(3)In terms of urban expansion prediction of Golmud,the grey prediction model is used to predict that the permanent population of Golmud in 2030 and 2040 will be 248.66 million and 256.58 million respectively.The scale of construction land in 2030 and 2040 is 261.543km~2 and 338.776km~2 respectively.Based on the CA-Markov model,the spatial expansion pattern of Golmud city in 2030 and 2040 is predicted based on the urban construction land of Golmud city in 2020.Under the definition of restrictive factors and influencing factors,it is predicted that the urban area of Golmud city will increase in 2030 and 2040,but the expansion rate is not large,the speed is slow,and the stock development is the main.