A Game Study On The Issue Of U.S. Military Bases In Japan In Okinawa After The Cold War

After the cold war,the issue of the U.S.military base in Okinawa has always been the focus of the game among Okinawa and the Japanese government and the United States.Because of this issue,Okinawa has also become a secondary administrative unit with the most tense relationship with the central government in Japan.Firstly,this paper uses the cross level analysis method of the theoretical unit and system of “two-level game theory”,which divides the game into two levels: negotiation between countries and negotiation within countries on related issues.However,due to the particularity of Okinawa U.S.military base problem,the“two-tier game theory” faces the lack of explanatory power in analyzing the specific game process,which does not develop in accordance with the preset track of the theory.This paper analyzes the core concept of the “two-tier game theory”,and on the basis of the specific investigation upon the game of Okinawa U.S.military base in Japan,finds that the game process is different from the “two-tier game theory” in three aspects,namely,the abnormal interaction among units of the military alliance system,the restriction of domestic specific groups on the “winning set” on specific issues,and the failure of “extra payment theory”by use of the special emotional factors..These three factors make the game of Okinawa base in Japan can not be fully explained according to Putnam's “two-tier game theory”,and these three particularities are the key to the dilemma of Okinawa base in Japan.First of all,as the special military alliance between the United States and Japan,and in the alliance,Japan has formed unequal dependence on the United States,Okinawa's U.S.military base in Japan is a common strategic necessity for both sides to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance and guard against regional competitors,it is a strategic consensus between the two countries to retain the base,andthe negotiation between the two sides is only to discuss how to optimize the base plan,not to withdraw or retain the U.S.military base.Secondly,Okinawa Prefecture is the main carrier of the Okinawa US military base,and has a key voice on this issue,rather than the“winning set”in Japan.In addition to the particularity of Okinawa's historial and legal status,as well as the local autonomy system implemented by Japan after the Second World War,Okinawa's resist and reject of the U.S.military base has made the agreement reached by the United States and Japan on Okinawa's U.S.military base unable to be smoothly implemented in Japan.Finally,the“extra payment theory”is based on the hypothesis of “rational person”,which is a transaction and compensation theory under the calculation of rational interests.However,the special historical experience of Okinawa and the structural differences between Okinawa and Japan in reality have resulted in the fact that Okinawa has been unfairly treated in Japan,and in the mind,Okinawa has a sense of being discriminated against and victimized.This special emotion has led to Okinawans' anger and distrust towards the Japanese government and the US military.Therefore,the“extra payment theory”based on the hypothesis of “rational person” has lost its significance as a policy tool.Okinawa people firmly reject the US military base and refuse the Japanese government's“extra compensation”plan.It is a necessity of the US and Japan to keep the Okinawa US base in East Asia strategy,and it violates the common strategic interests of the two countries to withdraw the base.However,as Okinawa has the key veto power on this issue,and because of the structural differences,Okinawans have consciousness of being victimized,as well as the Japanese government's “extra payment” policy for buying Okinawans failed,this game has been deadlocked and can not be solved.