"Relative Deprivation" And The Choice Of Weak Allies: A Study Of The United States' Alliance System In East Asia After The Cold War

The choice of weak allies means that the minor power in the asymmetric alliance consciously makes a choice with agency in the alliance,which will not necessarily reflect the will of the dominant state.Based on the fact that the strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies and the United States increasingly attaches importance to the role of regional allies,this dissertation attempts to answer why do the weak allies in the asymmetric alliance make different choices under the premise that the external threat defined by the dominant state of the alliance rises?This dissertation reviews and discusses the previous studies on the choice of weak allies.Literature review is carried out from two major directions,namely,the alliance theory and the researches on the U.S.alliance system in East Asia.These theories involve or examine the strategic choice of weak states in asymmetric alliances from different levels.However,the problems lie in the following: firstly,they ignore the agency of weak allies;secondly,they lack micro level explanations;thirdly,they do not fully understand or examine the behavioral choice of weak allies.Considering both the deficiency and inspiration of the existing research,this dissertation proposes a theoretical model on the influence of "relative deprivation" on the choice of weak allies,conforming to the trend of combining the alliance theory with the political psychology in international relations.The model is based on three basic assumptions,namely,hierarchy exists in international relations,state is not a unitary actor,and bounded rationality.As one of the core concepts in the model,relative deprivation is redefined as the cognition of different actors within a country for value expectation and value acquisition under the condition of external countries participating in value supply.As another core concept,weak allies' choices are classified as strengthening alliance,hedging and exiting alliance.Under the premise of the rise of new external threats,the mechanism of relative deprivation is reflected in two major processes,that is,through the social movements in weak allies and bargaining in alliances,to influence the decision-makers to weigh the benefits and costs of alliances.The intervention variables in the two processes are the political openness and the compensation signal of the dominant state.Under the influence of intervention variables,relative deprivation will be stimulated or inhibited,resulting in four combinations of alliance benefits and costs,forming different decision contexts.According to the degree of relative deprivation in the final decision-making context,this dissertation puts forward four hypotheses about different choice of weak allies.Taking the choices of some East Asian allies of the United States after the cold war as an example,this dissertation verifies the hypothesis.After the end of the cold war,the United States gradually regarded China as a rising new threat,while Japan,Thailand and the Philippines made different choices in the alliance.The relative deprivation of Japanese people and elites was restrained,and the decision-making elites finally chose to strengthen the US Japan alliance after rational weighing.The Thai people's relative deprivation was weak,and the domestic "anti Americanism" did not grow.However,the relative deprivation of the elite group has gradually increased after the cold war,which eventually prompted Thailand to move towards hedging.In the early days of Mrs.Aquino's administration,the Philippine people's relative deprivation was stimulated in the process of democratization,and the "anti base" movement formed a strong domestic pressure.However,the Philippine elites were unwilling to give up the benefits from the United States,and their relative deprivation was restrained and chose to hedge,benefiting from both China and the United States.However,in the later period of Mrs.Aquino's administration,the Philippine elites were frustrated in the US-Philippine base negotiations,and the United States was increasingly unable to meet the needs of this group,leading them to choose to exist alliance instead of hedging.Under the background of increasingly fierce competition among big powers,it is of great significance to explore the behavior regulation of US regional allies from the theoretical level,to study and judge the future trend of the U.S.alliance system in East Asia,to understand and grasp the dynamic of regional order,and to construct the strategic opportunities and landscape of China's neighboring diplomacy.This dissertation focuses on the weak allies,which are less concerned in the study of alliance politics.From the micro level,this dissertation emphasizes the key role of relative deprivation in the behavior choice of weak allies.The emphasis on the agency of small countries also highlights the significance of strengthening the research on the domestic politics and society of American allies in East Asia.