Research On Evolution Mechanism And Intervention Strategy Of Escalators Crowd Stampede Risk

With the acceleration of urbanization,the use of escalators in public places such as metro stations,railway stations,airports and shopping malls has become more widespread,and the number of pedestrians carried by escalators has increased.In recent years,crowd stampede accidents in escalators have occurred frequently around the world,causing serious casualties and adverse social impacts.It is of great practical significance to intervene and manage crowd stampede accidents in escalators.At present,there are many studies on crowd stampede,but few studies on escalators crowd stampede.This dissertation has explored the influencing factors,evolution mechanism and intervention principles of escalators crowd stampede risk,and proposed targeted and systematic intervention strategies.The research content includes as following:(1)Utilizing ISM-DEMATEL method to construct a multi-level hierarchical structure model of the evolution influencing factors of escalators crowd stampede risk,and proposing a conceptual model of evolution mechanism of escalators crowd stampede risk.(2)Modelling the evolution of escalators crowd stampede risk.For the core-triggering node,establishing an inverted pendulum model of pedestrian fall,for the evolution process,constructing an improved social force model by considering the three-circle model of pedestrian body and the pedestrian collision prediction algorithm,and for the evolution consequences,establishing a collision damage model.(3)Using Any Logic software developed based on social force model to simulate and analyze the evolution process of escalators crowd stampede risk under different scenarios such as exit width,exit distance,platform area,waiting behavior of pedestrians,arrival rate of pedestrians,and the number of pedestrians.(4)Exploring the function principles of risk intervention of escalators crowd stampede.Utilizing SEM-SD method to analyze the influencing process and intervention effect of preventive intervention on escalators crowd stampede risk,and defining multiple emergency intervention methods for escalators crowd stampede risk based on video analysis.(5)Proposing intervention principles of escalators crowd stampede risk,and analyzing the intervention object,intervention purpose,strategy content,strategy formulation and strategy implementation of intervention strategies.(6)Case analysis,suggesting corresponding intervention strategies for three crowd stampede accidents in escalators,and summarizing the intervention enlightenment of escalators crowd stampede risk.The contributions of this dissertation are:(1)A multi-level hierarchical structure model of the evolution influencing factors of escalators crowd stampede risk is constructed,reflecting the interaction between the influencing factors and the gradual effect mechanism of the factors on escalators crowd stampede risk evolution.(2)Aiming at the core-triggering node,evolution process,and evolution consequences of escalators crowd stampede risk,the inverted pendulum model,the improved social force model,and the collision damage model are established respectively.(3)The principle of preventive intervention for the risk of escalators crowd stampede risk is proposed and its effect is verified.