Research On The Risk Classification And Pre-control Strategies Of Crowd Stampede

In recent years,crowd stampedes occur frequently at home and abroad.Early warning crowd stampede risk can help managers avoid the risk.In the meantime,it can also improve the cognitive level of crowd stampede risk in the crowd space,thus reducing the possibility of crowd stampede.Crowd stampede risk classification allows managers to take different control plan and strategies in different management scenarios with different risks.So that managers can reasonably reduce the maximum risk with minimum cost in this way.This thesis puts forward the crowd stampede risk classification model and pre-control strategies accordingly by analyzing the crowd stampede risk.The results of this thesis have important practical significance and social value for the management of crowd stampede risk.The thesis analyzes the basic characteristics of individual and group movement with experiments and observations,and proposes that the trigger factors of crowd stampede include crowd density,mental state,state of movement,fermentation events and terrain environment.In the view of system,a DEEP-M model is proposed.Subsequently,this thesis also suggests the quantitative risk analysis model and qualitative risk classification model of the crowd stampede risk.Using the statistical analysis technique,this thesis puts forward the theory and model of crowd-density threshold based on the theoretical max-static-density theory.According to the model,the study classifies crowd-density into four grade under different parameters with different values.And the density threshold can be revised with a model according to the crowd stampede trigger factors.The consequences are divided into four grade as well based on the ALARP principle.In addition,the study calculates the weights of crowd stampede trigger factors in DEEP-M model and comprehensively evaluate the crowd stampede risk of the 2015 Guiyuan Buddhist Temple Spring Festival activities with FANP analysis method.Finally,the thesis implies the overall pre-control strategy of crowd stampede in the view of the terrain environment,fermentation events and psychological status based on DEEP-M model and FANP method.On this basis,the study puts forward the formulation and initiation principle of predetermined plan and pre-control strategies based on the grading early-warning under different circumstances.The main innovation points of this paper are as follows: firstly,the thesis presents the myopia effect and the herd effect in the crowd self-organization with statistical analysis technique.Secondly,the study establishes the crowd-density threshold model and the corresponding risk assessment model.Thirdly,the study provides the systemic pre-control strategies of crowd stampede.