Research On Mechanism And Risk Control Of Stampede Under Multi-event Condition

With the acceleration of economic and urbanization in our country,the population density of major cities is increasing.Nowadays,there are many mega-cities with a population of more than 10 million.As a special carrier,cities are facing more and more risks.The crowded stampede showed a high momentum in recent years.Stalking caused by the stampede on Chen Yi Square in Shanghai’s Bund by the end of 2014 caused a large number of casualties.In September 2015,more than 700 people were stampede from pilgrims in the Mecca area of Saudi Arabia.Crowded stampedes have again become a hot topic of public concern,and research on the mechanism of accident and countermeasures has far-reaching significance for the international community.This article first collects stampede accidents at home and abroad in the past 18 years,recording time,location,casualty and other key factors,judging the trend of accidents,analyzing the causes of accidents,and using factor analysis methods to determine the main causes of accidents are all kinds of transient emergencies.Then dividing the dimension of crowded stampede then according to the accident occurrence,development,evolution,termination to analyze the principle of stampede basing event system theory(EST),events can effects on the organizational system from the aspects of event intensity,event space and event time.Concluding a certain degree of disaster-causing event is proposed,and the stampede is caused by changing the steady state of crowd by cross-level influence.The longer influence of the event is,the more casualties caused by the accident.After the theoretical research,the cellular automata model is introduced to simulate experiments.The purpose of the experiment is mainly used to verify the correctness of the mechanism.The introduction of multi-agents in the model construction makes the simulation experiments more realistic.At the same time,it introduces a fall function to transform the basic model to build a stamping model,and explores the evacuation of people under multi-event conditions through repeated experiments,finding out the impact of event intensity,space and time on stampede.Combining theoretical research with experimental results,the risk of crowded stampede accidents is identified from a new perspective and presented in three dimensions: event intensity,space,and time.And the three guiding suggestions:(1)control the intensity of the event to curb the disaster;(2)monitoring the event space,put an end to the pernicious effects;(3)to shorten the length of the event,rapid disposal to restore are put forward.Finally,taking the outdoor activities of the Hankou River Beach as an example,a case study was conducted through computer simulation and plot construction methods to simulate the evacuation of the event site,identify key prevention and control areas,and propose specific countermeasures.This article uses the event system theory(EST)to conduct an in-depth study of the stamping accident mechanism.It mainly elaborates stampede accidents from the angle of events.It is different from the thoughts of people,objects,environment,and management,adding the research methods of simulation experiments.Using experiments to verify the mechanism makes the theoretical study more accurate.