| Since General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the initiative of jointly building the“Silk Road Economic Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” in 2013,economic cooperation models featuring complementarity,sharing,competition and cooperation between China and countries along the routes have been continuously expanded,including Public Private Partnership.PPP model has been widely used in the infrastructure construction of “Belt and Road” countries.Due to the characteristics of long construction cycle,large investment and wide scope of infrastructure construction,as well as the large regional span of “Belt and Road”,different countries have great differences in economic development degree,policies and laws,cultural and religious beliefs,so there are multiple risks in the implementation of PPP projects.Therefore,how to carry out a reasonable and effective risk sharing among various participants has become a hot topic in theoretical research and an urgent problem that needs to be solved in practice.This dissertation firstly reviews and sorts out the concepts of PPP mode,risk and risk management,project risk management,PPP project risk management and constructs the research framework of “Belt and Road” PPP project risk sharing mechanism.Then,based on the World Bank PPI database,this paper analyzes the problems that China may face when investing in PPP projects in countries along the“Belt and Road” from the perspective of investment status and industry distribution.Then combined with the regional characteristics of the “Belt and Road” and the objective requirements of the PPP model,define the core stakeholders of PPP project risk sharing in the “Belt and Road” countries,and use grounded theories and methods to identify the types of risks.Based on this,establish the ownership of shared risks,use cooperative game theory to build a risk-sharing model for the “Belt and Road”PPP project,and then use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to analyze the risk tolerance,attitudes towards risks,and risk control capabilities of core stakeholders.The four dimensions of risk awareness and risk are revised to the risk sharing ratio.On this basis,a certain “Belt and Road” PPP project is used as an example to empirically verify the model’s feasibility.Finally,practical and feasible control measures for the risks of the“Belt and Road” PPP project are put forward from the government level,social capital level,and commercial bank level.Based on the above analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The areas of cooperation in PPP projects between China and countries along the“Belt and Road” are mainly concentrated in the fields of finance,transportation,new energy and environmental protection.At the same time,from the perspective of spatial analysis of China’s PPP project cooperation in “Belt and Road” countries,it is found that the natural resource endowment of host countries has a spatial crowding out effect.(2)The dissertation uses social network analysis to identify the core risk sharing subjects of “Belt and Road” PPP projects,and analyzes the behaviors and interest demands of the three core risk sharing subjects of “Belt and Road” PPP projects,including the host country government,social capital and commercial banks.The results show that the host government is more aimed at improving political performance.Social capital mainly aims to achieve its own economic benefits.While commercial banks are pursuing relatively stable expected returns,they are more sensitive to the construction and operational risks of PPP projects.(3)The “Belt and Road” PPP project is more susceptible to the influence of the local government.At the same time,it also faces problems such as financing difficulties,coordination difficulties among all parties,and inconsistent technical standards among countries.Using the ISM-MICMAC method,it is found that the 8 core risk factors of the “Belt and Road” PPP project are distributed in 4 levels,and there is a progressive relationship between the risk factors at each level.From the ISM model,it can be concluded that the risk of political untrustworthiness and the risk of natural disasters are the basic risk factors,and in the MICMAC matrix,these two risk factors have a strong influence on other risk factors,but are less affected by other factors.The three risk factors of operating income risk,third-party delay or default risk,and social risk are the ultimate manifestations of other core risk factors.(4)The Nash negotiation model is used to analyze the risk sharing process among the host government,social capital and commercial banks.Then,based on the principle of risk sharing of PPP projects,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to comprehensively consider the factors affecting the risk sharing of the three parties,and the risk sharing ratio is revised and calculated.The model results show that the risk sharing coefficient of “Belt and Road” PPP project participants is positively correlated with the overall risk coefficient of the project.And the risk sharing coefficients of other project participants were negatively correlated.(5)At the government level,the risk prevention ability can be improved by improving the credibility of the government,establishing a collaborative supervision mechanism and building an information sharing platform for PPP projects.At the social capital level,risks are avoided by improving the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises,establishing a support system of “people,finance,and material”,and strictly preventing the occurrence of environmental pollution.At the level of commercial banks,multilateral financial cooperation mechanisms should be established,financing methods should be innovated and a “trinity” risk management and control system should be constructed. |
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