The Effects Of International Political Relations Change On China's Exporting

The post-cold-war world political pattern provided a new research background for international political economy.The two Gulf Wars broke out,the collapse of the Libyan Qadhafi regime,and the ruptured politics of the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks continued to reshape the regional political and economic structure.Whether the changes in political relations between countries have affected the level of trade between countries has become a hot topic.With the advancement of the US “Return to Asia-Pacific Strategy”,the international political environment faced by Chinese exporters is even more unpredictable.How to explain the impact of changes in international political relations on economic and trade relations is confusing in the research conclusions of scholars.In 2017,in the WTO ministerial meeting held in Buenos Aires,countries could not reach a consensus after fierce confrontation.The US chief trade negotiator,Wright Heze,accused the World Trade Organization of its inefficiency.The "US priority" policy pursued by Trump after he took office runs counter to the tide of economic globalization.In 2018,the United States launched a trade war with China and accused China of undermining the free trade rules of the WTO.The multilateral trading system is increasingly being challenged by international political factors.A new issue to enter the 21 st century international political and economic structure is the important change brought about by the improvement of China's international status.Experts and scholars from different backgrounds have pointed out that the21 st century is the century of China.In history,China was once the hegemon of international trade.After the industrial revolution,China's international status plummeted.With the continuous expansion of the colonies of Western powers,China's share of international trade has also been eroded.After the reform and opening up,China's foreign trade status has been in full swing.Especially after joining the international trade organization,China has been ranked first in the world in terms of total import and export trade for many years.At the same time,the development of international business disciplines faces important topics in emerging market countries.In the process of changing international political relations,how to choose export destination countries and how to adjust export decisions are important research topics that should be continuously discussed in international business related research.In the above context,based on the new data set of “Political Relations-National Characteristic Variables-Bilateral Trade”,this paper mainly studies the following questions:(1)Does the change in bilateral political relations affect export trade? Why are there inconsistent conclusions on international economic and trade relations?(2)Does the international political relationship network shape the export trade network? What is the relationship between the two?(3)Does the change in bilateral political relations cause the export trade to be transferred to the neighboring countries of the destination country? Does the political environment of neighboring countries have an impact on China's export trade?(4)Does the occurrence of specific political events affect China's export trade?Through the study of the above problems,this paper has obtained relatively complete conclusions.In particular,the conclusions can be summarized as the following four aspects: First,changes in bilateral political relations can affect China's export trade.The farther the bilateral political relations are,the less the amount of export trade,the closer the bilateral political relations are,the more export trade is.Second,the international political relations network and the export trade network have the characteristics of “small world” and at the same time present the “core”.-Edge" features.The results based on QAP analysis show that the international political relationship distance network can significantly positively affect the export trade network.Third,the changes in international political relations exist in the "transitional trade transfer effect of neighboring countries"and "the political environment effect of neighboring countries".Fourth,the positive political events represented by the leaders' visits promoted China's export trade,and Dalai Lama.The negative political events represented by the Lama's visit have not devastated China's export trade.At the same time,the leaders' visit and the Dalai Lama's visit have both “export trade transfer effects”.This paper is divided into eight chapters,the specific arrangements are as follows: The Chapter1 summarizes the research background of this paper,and puts forward the research questions in this background.Then the research framework of this paper is introduced,and the innovation of this paper is expounded.The research background is summarized as the current international relationship pattern and the international status quo,which provides a new research background for relevant research.China's status change in the international political and economic system makes the study of political and economic relations in China background worthy of key research,and the development of international business theory faces Three aspects of important issues related to research in emerging market countries.And the innovation of this article is summarized.The Chapter2 carries out literature review and theoretical foundation construction.It summarizes the literature on non-political factors,international political factors and corporate decision-making,and expounds the motivation of export trade.Then the author reviewed the existing literature and pointed out that the theoretical basis of this paper is to change the international political relations as a special institutional distance change,and its effect on export trade is realized by influencing the export-specific investment of enterprises.Finally,the empirical framework of this paper is proposed.The Chapter3 explains the data source and data set construction of this paper.First,an introduction to the sources of international political relations data.The representative international relations database such as COW data,big country relationship data,partnership data,ATOP data,and UN voting data were introduced.Then it puts forward the basis for selecting the ideal point data of the United Nations General Assembly as the proxy variable for the change of international political relations.Finally,a brief description of the database build set construction is given.Chapter4 discusses the impact of changes in bilateral political relations on export trade.Firstly,it confirms the impact of changes in bilateral political relations on export trade,and then tests the robustness and endogenous nature of empirical research,and further points out that the changes in bilateral political relations through cultural influence,regional economic cooperation and high-level political cooperation.Channels affect export trade.Finally,heterogeneity tests were carried out for different ownership systems,different industries,and different export destination countries.Chapter5 discusses whether the changes in international political relations have an impact on export trade from a network perspective.Firstly,the international political relationship network data is constructed to analyze the structural characteristics and evolution trends of the international political relationship network.Secondly,the number of export trade networks is constructed,and the structural characteristics and evolution trends of the export trade network are analyzed.Finally,based on the QAP method,it is verified whether the international political relations network has an impact on the export trade network,and further investigates the impact of the international political relations network on the export trade network of the sub-sector.Chapter6 discusses the export trade transfer effect of changes in international political relations from the perspective of neighboring countries.The neighboring country effect of the change of international political relations was discussed mainly from the two aspects of “export trade effect of neighboring countries” and“political environmental effects of neighboring countries”.First,the neighboring countries' indicators were constructed to divide the neighboring countries of the exporting destination countries into geographical neighbors,economic neighbors,cultural neighbors and political neighbors.Subsequently,the neighboring effects of the above two aspects were verified according to different neighboring country classification criteria.Chapter 7 discusses the impact of specific political events on export trade.Discuss the export trade effect of the leaders' visits and the Dalai Lama's visit.First,we discuss the direct impact of the visit of the leaders and the visit of the Dalai Lama on export trade,and then verify whether the two types of specific events have caused trade in neighboring countries in export trade.Chapter8 is conclusions and policy recommendations.Summarize the conclusions of the empirical research and propose policy recommendations.Finally,the prospect of future research is proposed.In view of the four research questions raised in this paper,this paper makes innovations that are different from previous research in the three levels of theory,data and perspective.Specifically:First,perspective innovation.For the first time,this paper combines bilateral perspectives,network perspectives,and neighboring countries to examine the impact of changes in international political relations on export trade.Overcoming the existing research focuses on the investigation of one perspective,the bias of sample selection,and the defects of global and local differences.Interpretation of different perspectives has been made to explain the inconsistency of the empirical results of various international political relations and trade interaction mechanisms.Second,theoretical innovation.For the first time,this paper takes international political relations as a special institutional distance and makes an empirical test on its impact on export trade.Expanded the interpretation boundary of institutional distance.This paper combines international business theory with international political relations theory and tries to solve the subject attribute orientation of the change of international political relations.The change in international political relations is considered to be an ever-changing system in essence.Third,empirical analysis innovation.For the first time,based on the UN General Assembly voting data,COW war index database,Gravity data and BACI dataset,this paper constructs a "political relationship-national characteristic variable-bilateral trade" data set.As far as possible,all data on objectively measuring international political relations should be included in the consolidated database.For the first time,the United Nations General Assembly voted the ideal distance as a variable to measure changes in international political relations,and accurately and objectively measured international political relations.Useful inspiration for the use of data from related research.