Credit Risk And Law Regulation Of Online P2P Lending From Perspective Of Evolutionary Game

With the continuous innovation of Internet technology and in-depth development of Internet ecology,the Internet has not only deep integration in various fields of the national economy,but also completely changed people's way of life.With the rapid increase in the number of Internet users,the continued development of e-commerce and the rapid growth of people's purchasing power,new and more personalized financial needs have been promoted.However,traditional financial institutions have gradually failed to meet the growing financial needs of people which in turn prompted the birth of online P2P lending.Online P2P lending is a financial innovation model that provides information intermediary services for borrowers and investors to achieve direct lending,where the Internet is the main channel.Since the establishment of Zopa in the UK in 2005,the establishment of Prosper in the United States in 2006,and the establishment of the Ppdai in China in 2007,online P2P lending has grown rapidly worldwide,attracting many users and facilitating a large number of lending transactions.At the same time,the "violent thunder" incidents in China's online P2P lending industry are endless.Under the situation that the social credit information system is not perfect and the online P2P lending industry is fiercely competitive,China's online P2P lending platform is subject to strong credit risk,legal risk and policy risk.Therefore,improving the risk control ability of the online P2P lending industry and perfecting its legal regulation system are the research hotspots and difficulties in the current financial field,and have important practical and theoretical value for the sustainable and stable development of online P2P lending platforms.First,considering that credit risk is a major risk type for China's online P2P lending industry crisis,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and risk measurement models of credit risk.According to the two representative P2P platforms at home and abroad,Prosper and Ppdai,based on the binary regression model,the factors affecting credit risk are analyzed.It is concluded that China's P2P platform has stronger risk appetite.On this basis,eleven kinds of machine learning algorithms are used to conduct credit risk measurement research on Prosper and Ppdai data sets.The research results show that different credit assessment models have different performances in the same data set,and the performance of the same assessment model in different data sets is not the same.Finally,it is recommended to establish a unified credit information sharing platform and credit risk assessment system for the online P2P lending industry to improve the borrower's entry barrier,reduce the platforms' credit risk,and promote the healthy and stable development of the online P2P lending market.Secondly,in order to understand how the online P2P lending participants engage in the interest game and choose the strategy that best suits their own interests,this paper conducts an evolutionary game research on the interest relationship between the participants.First,we discuss the evolutionary game between P2P platforms,between borrowers and investors,and between P2P platforms and regulators.Compared with the existing literature,the conclusions of this paper are more reasonable and more in line with the actual situation.Aiming at the three-party evolutionary game problem of online P2P lending,this paper transforms it into a stability problem of a nonlinear system with multiple equilibriums.Compared with the related literature,this paper uses the stability theory of nonlinear systems to discuss the equilibriums and evolutionary stability strategy of the three-party evolution game problem more rigorously and more accurately.Finally,the paper gives the infimum of the penalty strength to ensure the desired evolutionary stability strategy.According to the value,regulators can set a relatively moderate punishment to allow stable and healthy development of online P2P lending as a financial innovation model.Third,since the establishment of Ppdai in 2007,online P2P lending has achieved rapid development in China.At the same time,it has also developed some operating modes with Chinese characteristics,which has brought difficulties to the risk supervision of China's P2P industry.This prompts this article to discuss the operation mode and legal risks of China's online P2P lending industry from the root cause.Through research,we conclude that how to achieve the rapid expansion of the P2P platform scale in the absence of a sound social credit system in China is the root cause of the emergence of a large number of legal risks in China's credit intermediation model.Then,on this basis,we put forward suggestions on the construction of a sound credit information system and the prevention of legal risks.Fourth,due to the lack of awareness of risk management and the lack of regulatory measures,China's P2P lending defaults have occurred frequently in recent years.Learning from the experience of developed countries in the legal regulations of online P2P lending is an important means to study the relevant legal regulations in China.To this end,this paper analyzes the status of the legal regulations of China,the United Kingdom and the United States in the three areas of credit information system,industry self-discipline and government supervision.Then,based on the analysis of the status,we conduct a comparative analysis of legal regulation system of the online P2P lending in China,the United States and the United States.Compared with the United Kingdom and the United States,China's credit information system,industry self-discipline and government supervision have problems such as imperfect legal regulations and unclear provisions.Finally,according to the deficiencies in the construction of China's legal regulation in the comparative analysis,the corresponding legal regulation recommendations are proposed.