Research On Geo-Risk And Early-Warming Mechanisms For Chinese Enterprises'Direct Investment To Myanmar

The geo-investment risk is rooted in the geo-factors,and it is the economic risk resulted from the change of the regional investment environment caused by the game among the relevant geo-investors in a specific geographical space.Under the background of globalization,the complicated geographical investment environment has increased the risk of China's outword foreign direct investment.With the increasing number of extreme risks encountered by Chinese enterprises in investing overseas,scholars pay more and more attention to geopolitical risks.The study and accurate analysis of geo-investment risk can help Chinese enterprises to understand the current international situation clearly and control the risk better to reduce the loss.In other words,to grasp the geo-investment risk can help Chinese enterprises in the fierce competition in the international market.Myanmar's special geographical location is a strategic key to the great powers,China's "Belt and Road" initiative to promote the pivotal.Since 2011–2012 Burmese political reforms,its geo-investment environment has become intertwined with the interests of the major powers,increasing the geo-risk of Chinese companies investing in Myanmar,which led to the suspension of the Myitsone Dam and the suspension of the Letpadaung Copper Mine.How to break through the dilemma of Myanmar and to achieve the smooth development and implementation of Chinese investment projects in Myanmar? It is an urgent problem to be solved.Based on this,this paper analyzes Myanmar's geo-investment environment,identifies potential geo-investment risks,and analyzes its risk-forming mechanism,the establishment of a scientific early warning and prevention mechanism is expected to provide a useful reference for reducing the risk of direct investment by Chinese enterprises in Myanmar,increasing the return of investment and promoting the sustainable development of investment.The thesis uses the geo-analytic method to construct the analytical framework of the geo-investment environment.First,on the basis of combing the geo-environment theory,it constructs the analytical framework of the geo-investment environment.The geo-investment environment is composed of geo-elements,and each element is in the process of continuous evolution.Changes in geo-factors will cause shifts in the geoinvestment environment,and changes in influencing factors break the inherent structure of the geo-environment,leading to new uncertainties and geo-risks.The evolution of the geo-investment environment is the result of the coupling of multiple internal and external influencing factors.Risks usually occur under the combined effects of endogenous and exogenous variables.The geo-investment environment acts on geoinvestment risks through four mechanisms: geo-structure evolution,national interest orientation,geo-fragility constraints,and negative public opinion.Geographical investment risks are more harmful,so the construction of an early warning mechanism has a role in safeguarding investment safety.After the democratic reform,the changes in Myanmar's geographic relations mainly manifested in two aspects: one is the improvement of relations with Western powers;the other is the change in China policy brought about by this.By improving relations with Western countries,Myanmar faces more choices.The increase in the number of investment countries has intensified the competition between Western and Chinese companies' investment in Myanmar,and objectively caused China's investment risks in Myanmar.However,after the Rohingya crisis,Myanmar also realized that its alienation from China and good relations with the West did not get reciprocal rewards,and began to change its policy towards China.After tempering,the Sino-Myanmar relationship has become stronger for a long time.In the future investment practice,the Chinese government should raise the awareness of geo-security at the national level.In the approval of major investment projects,it should focus on whether the project construction will trigger the reshaping of the geo-structure.For projects under construction,it should strengthen the response to emergencies Early warning assessment,strengthening the construction of legal system guarantees,building risk information sharing platforms,and preventing negative spillover effects of media public opinion At the diplomatic level,we should actively maintain the established strategic partnership and deepen our friendship with Myanmar.Chinese companies investing in Myanmar must establish a sound risk assessment and early warning system to prevent potential geo-investment risks.The total amount of investment should be controlled,with a small amount of trial entry,and do not inject a large amount of capital in a short period of time,causing panic among the Myanmar government and the people.Investment models and investment fields must be continuously innovated,investment areas must be carefully selected,and sensitive industries and conflict areas must be avoided as much as possible.Accurately grasp Myanmar investment laws and regulations,abide by Myanmar laws,and handle legal conflicts under the dual structure.Obey the law.In terms of benefit sharing and social responsibility performance,it is necessary to handle the interests of all parties involved and reduce risks.To the lowest level;enterprise investment must consider people's livelihood care to ensure that Myanmar people can get benefits,protect the interests of Myanmar people,and improve the living standards of Myanmar people.