Positive Research On Early-Warning Of Nongovernmental Investment Of China

Have founded the state for over 50 years, the non-governmental investment of our country has gone through three stages including the absolute predominance status in national economy before socialistic three major transformations were finished at the beginning of liberation, doing nothing during the time that from three major transformations to reform and opening-up, gradual recovery and tremendous development after reforming and opening-up to the outside world.It is a course of twists development. The rise and fall of the non-governmental investment during that time has obvious influence on national economy and the people's livelihood. Since reforming and opening-up, the non-governmental investment of our country has been fluctuating for several times too, and with its increasing of proportion in gross national product, the influence of this kind of fluctuation should arouse the attention from us even more. This text sets about to research the early-warning system of the non-governmental investment just under such background and demand.About the research of economic prewarning, the western developed country has already had a history of more than 100 years, having had more than 30 years too in our country, The prewarning method emerges in an endless stream especially and perfect constantly. On the basis of the thing that forefathers' studies , this article uses method that plural statistic to research and explore the prewarning system of the non-governmental investment of our country----uses the approach of the factor analysis to carry on the design that the early- warning index system of our country's non-government investment at first in the article, uses cluster's analytic approach to establish the operation type in non-governmental investment of our country, and establishes operation discrimination function of every type according to the principle of multi-classification Fisher discrimination. For the purpose to achieve prewarning, we use Bockus-Jenkins' method to set up the prediction model of every characteristic index's future value on the basis of existing initial data of 1978-2002 years, and through replacing every characteristic index predicted value of 2002 to every type of operation discrimination function of non-governmental investment, we have verified that the early-warning systems set up in the article is discernible and accurate.