Conflicts,Political Distance,and Import Patterns Of Pakistan

In recent years,a renewed interest in the differences between dyadic conflicts and complex,multiparty disputes has developed within international relations(Vasquez and Valeriano 2010;Valeriano and Vasquez 2010).The conflict economy literature focuses heavily on how traditional realist variables such as alliances,shared borders,and rivalries affect international trade.However,these studies largely ignore imports that importer and suppliers can reduce due to conflicts or differences in political preferences.Absent a few notable exceptions(Davis,Fuchs,and Johnson 2019),questions concerning the role that military conflicts and political conflicts play in import decline have remained generally unanswered.This dissertation seeks to address the economic disincentives of the interstate military conflicts between India and Pakistan,which is arguably one of the most major interstate conflicts,whose saliency is highlighted by nuclear weapons' presence on both sides.Conflict reduction is also necessary if the region releases resources from the military expenditure for poverty reduction and promotes trade between the two nations.This dissertation seeks to address the economic hindrances to indulge in disputes.How interstate military conflicts and political distance disrupts trade relations of combatant states and their trading partners? I approach this question in three parts.First,I investigate interstate military conflicts and political distance propensities concerning import volume of Pakistan,making a note of the evolution of Pakistan's economy from 1980-2013.I find that importing partners of Pakistan are more likely to revoke supplies of their products or partially lesson the supplies of their exported goods to Pakistan.Interstate military conflicts disrupt at higher levels of import volume of Pakistan and political disputes have a lower probability of disruption of import volume.Pakistan replaced the United States of America with China as a major partner that share a major proportion of its import market,while no significant development in trade between Pakistan and India.Second,I investigate whether interstate military conflicts and political distance are more harmful to intensive margin or interstate military conflicts.Political distance has a more harmful intensity for the extensive margin of imports of Pakistan.Trade partners seek alternative markets to substitute their exported products,jeopardized by the outbreak of a trade partner's conflict.Importing partners might do this to avoid export contraction and also to ensure that their economic health is preserved.If such circumvention occurs,then we should expect import margins of Pakistan when Pakistan and India go into a military conflict.Interstate military conflicts decline extensive and intensive margins of imports in all situations;however,interstate military conflicts between Pakistan and India drove by animosity and chauvinism are highly harmful to import margins of Pakistan.The political deviation of Pakistan with its trading partners leads to a decrease in extensive and intensive margins of imports;however,more decrease in the intensive margin and less extensive margin.Finally,I question not only whether interstates military and political conflicts are willing to reduce trade,but also they can affect industrial development and individual livelihood.Here I assess how military conflicts and political distance can affect different components of import and decline the probability of sophisticated imported products for industrial use and final consumption.The unique nature of intermediate commodities renders these goods virtually non-substitutable.Because of this,industries that rely heavily on imported intermediate and capital goods are more likely to protect their lifeline of resources in military and political conflicts.The political deviation of Pakistan with its trading partners leads to a decrease in consumer welfare and industrial production and industrial expansion.The coupled impacts of militarized conflicts and political deviation are also negative which decline the EXPY of imported products of Pakistan.And accelerate the factors that active behind the welfare loss and revoke the production and expansion of the industry of Pakistan.