Floating Population,Sex Ratio And Industry Development

Since the adoption of the reform and open policy,the industrial structure and economic gap between the eastern,central and western regions in China have become more and more obvious.The regional economic gap between cost and income is the main reason for population migration.Benefiting from national policies and location advantages,the eastern region has taken the lead in development,and the population has aggregated in large scale.Regional clusters have formed around the Bohai Sea,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.The cross-regional mobility of labor not only affects the total supply of labor in the inflow and outflow areas,but also affects the industrial structure and even economic development by changing the labor supply structure of the two regions(such as the gender structure of labor,age structure and skill structure).With the aging of the population and the problem of "labor shortage",how to use the limited labor supply to improve the development of local industry has always been the focus of academic circles,but from the perspective of floating population,the gender structure of labor and industrial development.The research exist in this issue are not enough.The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that the promotion of maternity policy and related economic and social policies should be linked to each other and strengthen the research on population development strategy.The rational allocation of the floating population will play an important role in industrial upgrading.Urbanization and free movement of the population should not be a "booster" for gender imbalance.It is of great policy value to recognize and attach importance to the impact of gender structure changes on regional industrial development.It is of great practical significance to do in-depth study of the internal relationship between labor mobility,sex ratio and industry development,systematically analyze the impact of regional industrial structure upgrading path.Therefore,this paper builds a theoretical model of "labor transfer-regional gender structure change-industrial structure upgrading" based on the existing models of urban models and tax competition models,and proposes hypotheses based from the theoretical models.The data were collected from the National Bureau of Statistics,China Labor Statistics Yearbook,China City Statistical Yearbook,National Temporary Population Statistics,Demographic Statistics by County and City,and Floating Population Report.This paper uses static panel model,dynamic panel model,space durbin model and the threshold model to analyze China's provincial panel data and propose an industrial transformation path applicable to China from the perspective of policy for the floating population.The research framework of this paper is:The first chapter is the introduction.This paper briefly introduces the background and research significance of this paper,and summarizes the research ideas and main contents of the full text.The second chapter is a literature review.The paper sorts out the relevant literature which can be divided into three parts:industrial structure upgrading,sex ratio and labor transfer.This part lays a theoretical foundation for further analysis of the relationship among the issues.The third chapter is typical facts and theoretical mechanisms.First,the paper analyzes the development trend of labor mobility,sex ratio and industrial structure change in China,and finds the correlation and evolution characteristics of the three in actual economic development.Second,based on the research basis of existing literature and the analysis of typical facts.As a result,the influence mechanism between labor mobility and industrial structure upgrading,gender imbalance and industrial structure upgrading is analyzed,and the theoretical model of this paper is established.Third,the urban model including the gender structure of labor force is constructed,and the gender structure is analyzed to upgrade the industrial structure.Impact.The fourth chapter is the study of the relationship between the floating population and the gender structure of the industry.First,the panel model is built based on the provincial panel data for static regression analysis.Second,the dynamic model regression of the sex ratio in the labor market is carried out.Third,the Spatial Durbin model is constructed for the spatial effect of the floating population,which is triggered by the floating population.The sex ratio in the labor market is tested by the Spatial Durbin Model to objectively assess the impact of floating population on regional sex structure.The fifth chapter is the study of the impact of the dual structure of labor market on different industries.Separately analyzes the data using the inter-provincial static panels,dynamic panels and spatial panel models.and then explores the impact of sex ratios in 11 industries.Combine the fourth part which depicts the impact of the floating population on the gender structure of various industries,this part analyzes the migrant population,the long-term effects of regional imbalances and possible future trends in China.The sixth chapter is the study of the relationship between labor mobility,talent competition and industrial development.First,based on the ZMW model,the regional talent competition mechanism is constructed,and the logical chain of labor transfer between regions is formed which affects the regional industrial development.Based on the theoretical model,a threshold model is built to conduct the emprical test on provincial panel data.The seventh chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.It summarizes the theoretical analysis and empirical results,comprehensively summarizes the research conclusions,and puts forward the policy recommendations to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,optimize the national industrial layout and promote regional coordinated development.Finally,it points out some unsolved problems in this paper and points out the direction of further research..The main conclusions of this paper are:First,in recent years,it is obvious that the trend of migrants in China is moving back to the central and western regions.Most of the regions with a large floating population are concentrated in areas where the urbanization rate has increased significantly.The sex ratio of China's floating population is characterized by the Hu Huanyong line.West of the Hu Huanyong line,the male population in the floating population is relatively high,east of the Hu Huanyong line,and male propotion is relatively low.The floating population of different genders has a spatial agglomeration feature of separation of things from the choice of migration destination.Second,there is significant industry difference in the impact of the floating population on the labor market.Compared with the birth and death population,the impact of floating population on regional gender imbalance is more obvious.The choice of the floating population for the industry has obvious gender characteristics.The floating population has promoted the increase in the proportion of men in the primary and secondary industries as well as in the transportation industry and accommodation and catering industry,and has promoted the employment of women in most tertiary industries.Wages have become the vane of supply and demand in the labor market in most industries,and wage changes are the main driving force for the migration of migrants.However,it is worth noting that the increase in wages in different industries has released different signals for the sex labor,and wages in the manufacturing,transportation,accommodation,and information technology services industries have risen,attracting more male labor supply;In the financial and real estate industries,rising wages will increase the supply of female labor.The impact of economic environmental factors such as regional urbanization level,industrial structure maturity and population dependency ratio on male and female labor force is not significant in the short term,but has a significant impact in the long run.Third,considering the spatial factors,the increase in the level of urbanization will play a significant role in promoting the proportion of female labor in the region.The increase in industrial maturity will reduce the proportion of male labor in the primary and secondary industries and increase the supply of male labor in the financial industry.The increase in the dependency ratio has prompted male migrants to gather in the secondary industry.Furthermore,the difference in the economic environment for the male and female labor force also leads to the balance of the gender structure of the labor market in different industries.Fourth,from the perspective of the industry,in the first and second industries,the increase in the proportion of men will help to improve the local economy.However,in the tertiary industry,increase the proportion of men will not effectively support the local economy.It may impose a negative impact on the economy because of the mismatch in the labor market.From the current verification of this paper,China's current floating population has played a positive role in most industries,but in the transportation industry and accommodation and catering industry,the floating population has not been able to provide the effective labor supply to the inflow.Fifth,fixed capital investment,per capita wages,and population size have all played significant roles in supporting economic development.However,some industries have found problems such as insufficient capital allocation,labor redundancy,and low production efficiency,such as the primary industry.Supply industries such as mining and electricity.The flow of population not only affects the place of immigration,but also affects the talent reserve of the emigration place.In some industries(financial industry,accommodation and catering industry and real estate industry),there is a hyper-competition in talent market.With the floating population flowing in,it will impose negative effect on the whole economic.The innovation of this paper is to construct a model of regional gender structure affecting industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of labor transfer,and analyze the impact between floating population,sex ratio and industrial structure,and analyzes the labor mobility in depth.It is of great theoretical significance and policy implication to analyz the phenonmenon of the regional economic agglomeration and the external effects of industrial structure changes.The conclusions of the study are conducive to the policy of guiding floating population and resource allocation.