| At present,such a large-scale population floating in China had become a unique and complicated economic phenomenon.To some extent,the flow of population alleviates the shortage of labor force and provides necessary production factors for the sustainable and rapid economic development of the inflow region.Meanwhile,the redistribution of various production factors associated with the floating of the population also stimulates the economic development to a certain extent.However,the largest megacity disease,which refers to varieties of drawbacks such as traffic congestion,high house prices,shortage of public resources caused by the excessive concentration of the population,is becoming increasingly serious.Therefore,the issues related to guiding population floating have important practical significance for the unique and complicated economic phenomenon of the population floating in China.The main purpose of population flowing among different cities/regions is to improve their income and life quality,therefore,the degree of net income growth and improving quality of life before and after migration is the most important factor to determine whether and where to flow.Based on the theories of population migration,welfare economics and demography,this dissertation takes the overlap point of population migration,individual welfare,and floating population as the entry point to quantify the change degree of individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares(including individual economic welfare,individual welfare from education,medical treatment,transportation,and environmental protection)before and after migration for the overall floating population,the floating population of four different flowing scales,and the floating population of flowing into different popular destinations respectively.Comparing the quantitative results of the changes of wages,net income and total gains before and after migration for the floating population of the four different flowing scales,where the population will flow is grasped and predicted according to the idea that people always move towards the place where wages,net income,and total income increased most dramatically.In the past 20 years,China's population distribution has become increasingly concentrated.The population has gradually concentrated in megacities and big cities,especially in the three economic circles of Pan-pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolis Circle,which have become the main destinations of population flow.The governance role of the government is indispensable to avoid the problem of excessive concentration of population and the problem of labor shortage in some destinations according to the predicting results of the flow directions of the population in the future.Therefore,this dissertation studies the problem of changing the flow direction of population from the governance perspective of the government,which will provide theoretical guidance for initiating policies of guiding the inflow and outflow of population to solve labor shortages and avoid excessive concentration of population according to change the total welfare of individuals before and after migration.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:First of all,this dissertation makes a statistical analysis of the basic characteristics of the floating population and the flowing features of the population of China based on the definition of related concepts.And then,combining the theoretical analysis results of the impact of the population flowing on the individual welfare,the models of the migration effect on the nominal wages,individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares are established separately.Secondly,the dissertation estimates the migration effects of overall floating population on the nominal wages,individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares separately using the Migrants Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China(NHFPCC)in 2015,education funding data from the government of original place for every student,etc.Besides,these two migration effects of four different scales flowing and flowing into different popular destinations also are estimated respectively.And then,the future population flowing directions can be predicted based on the estimated result.Thirdly,this dissertation uses the regression analysis to derive the relation between the change of individual total welfare and the change of per capita public welfares,which are caused by migration,using the results of the migration effects of four different scales flowing on individual total welfare.The influencing degree of every per capita public welfare on individual total welfare was gotten respectively through the results of regression analysis.The analysis of influencing degree results can provide the theoretical guidance for making the relevant policies of guiding population flowing under the assumption that the flowing direction is determined by the improvement degree of individual total welfare.In summary,this dissertation focuses on the changes of individual welfare caused by migration and estimates the migration effect on the nominal wages,individual economic welfare,individual total welfare and the individual five welfares of the floating population from the perspective of individual characteristics of the floating population.Besides,this dissertation makes regression analysis between the change of individual total welfare and the change of per capita public welfares from the perspective of the changes of public welfares that people are concerned about caused by migration.The empirical results show that for the overall floating population,migration could increase the nominal wage by about 20%.Meanwhile,the migration effect is not significant on individual economic welfare,and also is not significant on individual total welfare.For the four different scale flowing,wages are increased by 40.66% to 47.69%,21.35% to 28.16%,and 4.28% to 5.99% respectively for these three migration patterns: flowing into the three largest megacities,inter-provincial migration(not including the floating population who come from other provinces flow into the three largest megacities),and inter-city migration within a province,but for this pattern of inter-district migration within a city,the migration effect is not significant on the wages.For the individual economic welfare,migration effect is not significant for these two patterns: flowing into the three largest megacities,inter-provincial migration,and is negative for the patters of inter-city migration within a province and inter-district migration within a city.Besides,the individual total welfare could increase by 43.2% to 50.31% for the migration pattern of flowing into the three largest megacities,meanwhile,the effect of inter-provincial migration is not significant on the individual total welfare,and the effect of inter-city migration within a province is negative.Because the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBSC)doesn't provide the per capita public budget expenditure data of each district,it is unable to estimate the migration effect of inter-district migration within a city on the individual total welfare.Since the relevant financial expenditure data of education,medical treatment,transportation,and environmental protection provided by the NBSC is only specific to the province,this dissertation only estimates the migration effect on the five welfares(individual welfare of economic,education,medical treatment,transportation,and environmental protection)for the inter-provincial migration pattern(including the floating population who come from other provinces flow into the three largest megacities),rather than the overall floating population,and the empirical results show that migration could increase the five welfares by 13.93% to 16.38%.Meanwhile,for the two patterns of flowing into the three largest megacities,inter-provincial migration(not including the floating population who come from other provinces flow into the three largest megacities),the pattern of flowing into the three largest megacities could increase the five welfares by about 25%,and the pattern of inter-provincial migration is not significant for the five welfares.For the migration effect of flowing into different popular destinations on the individual total welfare and the individual five welfares,the estimation results show that the pattern of flowing into Beijing could increase 55.75% to 62.17% and 34.00% to 37.75% for the individual total welfare,and individual five welfares respectively,which is the best migration effect among the five popular destinations.Besides,for the five popular provinces of inter-provincial migration,the migration effects on the individual total welfare are all significant,however,only the there migration patterns of flowing into Zhejiang,Shanghai and Beijing are positive on the individual five welfares.For the five popular provinces of inter-city migration within a province,only the migration effect of inter-city migration within Guangdong province is positive on the individual total welfare.Because the financial expenditure data of education,medical treatment,transportation,and environmental protection provided by the NBSC is only specific to the province,this dissertation is unable to estimate the migration effect on the five welfares for the two migration patterns of inter-city migration within a province and inter-district migration within a city.Remarkably,the migration effects on the nominal wages,individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares are not significant for the most of floating population of China,but there are still large numbers of people to flow.There are two main reasons for this phenomenon.Firstly,there are more job opportunities and lower cost of finding jobs in destinations.Secondly,for the estimation of migration effect on individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares,the cost of house rent,which is used in the process of estimation,is calculated by the house rent data that is gotten by some filter rules,and then it is taken as the house rent cost of each floating population,so the differences of house rent cost caused by the heterogeneity of floating population are not fully considered.And thus the migration effects on individual economic welfare,individual total welfare,and individual five welfares are not positive or even negative,so the future flow trend of the floating population could be predicted appropriately by the migration effect on nominal wages.The regression result between the change of individual total welfare and the change of the four per capita public welfares,which are caused by migration,shows that for the provinces with relatively less per capita education welfare,it is better to increase the individual transportation and environmental protection expenditure to improve the effect of the overall individual welfare than that of equivalent expenditure of education and medical treatment;for the provinces of medium level of the per capita education welfare,it is better to increase the expenditure of individual education and transportation than that of equivalent expenditure of medical treatment and environmental protection,further more,the effect of increasing the transportation expenditure is better than that of equivalent education expenditure;for the provinces of high level of the per capita education welfare,like the provinces of medium level of the per capita education welfare,it is better to increase the individual education and transportation expenditure than that of equivalent expenditure of medical treatment and environmental protection,unlike the provinces of medium level of the per capita education expenditure,the effect of increasing the education expenditure is better than that of equivalent transportation expenditure. |
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