The Effect Of Population Policy On Economic Welfare In China

This thesis focuses on the influence of the Chinese one-child policy on the birth rate of different types of youngsters.We sorted the youngsters into technical and non-technical workers based on their levels of education.By building a general equilibrium model of alternation of three generations,we made comparison of the birth rates of different types of youngsters between two stabilized states within the year 1977 and 2005.By the comparison,we found that the average birth rate dropped drastically among all types of youngsters,among which youngsters of the uu-model take the lead.Besides,we substituted survival of the children and adults and the market economic system within the stabilized state of the year 2005 into that of the year 1977 and recalculate.By comparing the two results we found the birth rates of all types of youngsters agrees with those of the previous two states between the substitution,the birth rates all drops drastically and youngsters of the uu-model still take the lead in the droppings.This clearly shows that during the first 30 years since the launch of the one-child policy,the birth rate is successfully restrained and the population is effectively regulated.Last but not least,due to the emergence of population aging and labor shortage,we emulated that if we let go of the one-child policy in 2005.when faced with the "separate two children" and the "universal two-child" policy of external shocks,the fertility rate level and the level of consumption of different kinds of young people,although there will be a fertility level and consumption level fluctuations,but the level of the utility to young people.Finally,if let go of the "universal two-child" policy in 2005,the three types of young people's fertility levels are no longer restricted,This indicates letting go of one-child policy is not the effective method to alleviate the problem of population aging and labor shortage,the government may need consider a more positive and active population policy,if we want to make the fertility levels back to 2.1 replacement fertility level.