| Since the reform and opening up,China has rapidly grown from a major agricultural country to the world's largest industrial country and manufacturing country.The industrial added value has increased from 12 billion yuan in 1952 to 30,516 billion yuan in 2018.Calculated at constant prices,it has increased by 970.6 times,and its average annual growth rate has reached 11.0%.Behind the above-mentioned remarkable achievements,it is also necessary to realize that with the disappearance of the "demographic dividend" and the decline in the rate of return on investment,the driving factors of China's industrial economic growth should gradually realize an upgrade process from driven by labor factors to driven by capital factor,and finally driven by knowledge factors.After 2012,China's economy is in the process of leaping from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage.From the supply side,the increase in total factor productivity(TFP)is an important source of improving the quality of economic growth.As an important part of China's real economy,industry is also the foundation of China's economic development.Whether its economic growth momentum can be transformed from factor input-driven to TFP growth-driven,directly affects whether China's economic growth stage can successfully complete the change.At present,there are so many researches on the growth of China's industrial TFP,but most of the researched are carried out under the neoclassical growth framework,using the Solow residual to calculate the TFP growth.According to the theory of induced technical change and the theory of endogenous growth,it can be known that TFP growth comes from technical research and development,and the research and development behavior themself have a biased characteristic,and it is always in favor of the using of abundant elements and the saving of scarce elements.If we break the neo-classical neutral TFP growth setting method,it can open up a new space for technical progress research.then it will become a meaningful research topic to find out whether this bias is suitable for the growth of China's industrial TFP.How to define and measure the bias of industrial technical progress? What causes the different bias of industrial technical progress? How to assess the suitability of technical progress bias,and what are the evaluation standards and rules? To what extent does the rapid economic growth of China's industry come from non-neutral technical progress? Does China have different technical progress bias during the early,middle and late stages of industrialization? What are the determining factors of the China's industrial technical progress bias,and are there some different characteristics at the regional and industry levels? If we take whether the technical progress bias has promoted the growth of industrial TFP as a criterion for evaluating suitability,will the technical progress bias at the macro,regional and industry levels of China's industry be suitable? does it have room for improvement? What are the factors that influence the suitability of technical progress bias at the macro,regional and industry levels in China's industry? How can we further improve the suitability of industrial technical progress bias by adjusting the influencing factors?Based on the problems above,this paper constructed an identification equation of technical progress bias under the factor-augmenting CES production function framework that can reflect non-neutral technical progress,and clarified the rules for determining technical progress bias.Then we clarify the two determinative effects of technical progress bias based on the directed technical progress theory put forwarded by Acemoglu(2002).Thirdly we rebuild a new decomposition equation for TFP growth rate in a framework that contains non-neutral technical progress,and define the concept of suitability of technical progress bias by judging to what extent the technical progress bias has promoted the growth of industrial TFP.Fourthly,based on comprehensive data on the macro level of China's industry,the level of 31 provinces,and the level of 35 industries,this paper analyzes the evolution of China's industrial factor endowment and factor scarcity,to clarify the inducing basis for China's industrial technical progress bias.Fifthly,we apply the nominalized-supply-side system of three nonlinear equations proposed by Klump et al.(2012),and use the non-linear seemingly uncorrelated estimation(NLSUR)method,to make a comprehensive identification of the technical progress bias of China's industry at the macro level,regional level and industry level,and clarified the evolution history and decision mechanism of the technical progress bias among different levels.Sixthly,this paper further uses the new evaluation framework to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of technical progress bias of Chinese industry at the macro,regional and industry levels,find out whether the existing technical progress bias is suitable,and determine the future improvement room for the suitability.Finally,after clarifying the improvement direction of technical progress bias,this paper analyzes the factors influencing the suitability of technical progress bias at the macro,regional and industry levels in China,so we can make sure how to improve the suitability of technical progress bias by changing the influencing factors to promote the growth of industrial TFP growth and escort the high-quality development of the industrial economy.The main research conclusions obtained in this paper are:(1)From a theoretical point of view,the technical progress bias is determined jointly by the market-size determining effect and the price determining effect.The former tends to promote technical progress biased to abundant factors,while the latter tends to promote technical progress biased to scarce factors,those two determining effects have completely opposite direction,and the stronger effect determines the ultimate direction of technical progress.There are two evaluation dimensions for the suitability of industrial technical progress bias: the first dimension is to judge whether the technical progress bias is coupled with the comparative advantage of factor endowments to promote industrial TFP growth;the second dimension is to judge whether the technical progress bias is coupled with the comparative advantage of factor efficiency to promote the industrial TFP growth.When the total effect caused by industrial technical progress bias which is coupled with the comparative advantage of factor endowments and the comparative advantage of factor efficiency is positive,the technical progress bias can meet the requirements of suitability and promote the growth of industrial TFP.(2)From the perspective of inductive basis of China's industrial technical progress bias,both the market-size determination effect caused by the continuous capital deepening and the price determination effect caused by rising labor costs have a trend of strengthening at the macro level.However,the recent rapid increase in labor scarcity is prominent,which may lead to the rapid enhancement of the price determination effect,thereby inducing industrial technical progress to shift toward labor bias.In addition,China's eastern,central,and western provinces and resource,labor,capital,and technology-intensive industries have obvious differences in the inductive basis for industrial technical progress bias.(3)From the perspective of the evolutionary process and decision mechanism of China's industrial technical progress bias,most of the technical progress at the macro,regional and industrial levels show a trend of shifting from capital bias to labor bias.The market-size determination effect is replaced by the price determination effect,becoming the main effect that affects technical progress bias,making the transformation of the main determination effect,but the turning points are different among regional and industrial levels.On the one hand,the transition of industrial technical progress bias in eastern and central provinces took place earlier at 2004,while it happened at 2006 in western provinces.On the other hand,resource-intensive industries did not have a significant technical progress bias changing during the period 2001-2016,The turning point of labor,capital,and technology-intensive industries' technical progress bias happened in 2008.(4)From the evaluation results of the suitability of China's industrial technical progress bias,due to the influence on industrial TFP growth from the coupling effect of technical progress bias and the comparative advantages of factor endowments is very weak,and the influence on industrial TFP growth from the coupling effect of technical progress bias and the comparative advantages of factor efficiency is obviously strong,therefore,the judgment of the suitability of China's industrial technical progress bias can only be determined by the evaluation results of the second dimension.Under the circumstance that China's industrial labor efficiency is more advantageous,only laborbiased industrial technical progress is suitable.As industrial technical progress completes the shift from capital bias to labor bias,the overall technical progress bias at the macro,regional,and industry levels all show a transition from strong unsuitable to weak suitable status.That is,the coupling effect of technical progress bias and comparative advantage of factor efficiency on industrial TFP growth show a shift from restraining to promoting.Secondly,the suitability transition of industrial technical progress bias in western provinces is earlier than eastern and central provinces,but the suitable degree of eastern and central provinces are higher than that western provinces.Finally,the suitability transition of technical progress bias of capital and technology-intensive industries are earlier,the suitability transition of labor-intensive industries has not yet been completely stabilized,the strong unsuitability of problem in resource-intensive industries is still very prominent.(5)From the perspective of factors affecting the suitability of China's industrial technical progress bias,The level of economic development,R&D investment,human capital level,capital deepening,and labor scarcity are the main influencing factors.After determining the labor bias as the suitable status of China's industrial technical progress,the increase in the level of economic development,R&D investment,human capital level,and labor scarcity can increase the suitability of industrial technical progress bias,but the increase in the level of capital deepening will reduce the suitability.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis puts forward three policy recommendations:Firstly,from the macro perspective,based on the status that the industrial technical progress has shifted from capital bias to labor bias,it is necessary to adapt to the reality of the disappearance of the demographic dividend,not only it is important to enhance the price determination effect of its industrial technical progress bias through the market-size determination effect,but also it is necessary to improve the level of economic development,R&D investment,and human capital,thereby integrating internal and external,to improve the suitable degree of industrial technical progress bias,so as to inject more impetus into industrial TFP growth.Secondly,from the regional perspective,for eastern and central provinces,further market-oriented allocation of factors should be adopted to maintain the high suitability level of industrial technical progress bias,and the eastern provinces can also promote the suitable degree by improving the level of economic development,R&D investment and human capital;the central provinces can promote the suitable degree by improving the level of economic development,R&D investment,and strengthen the impact of human capital.Western provinces should closely follow the footsteps of the central and eastern provinces and accelerate the improvement of the suitable degree of technical progress bias,promote the level of economic development and human capital level cross the threshold to become important driving forces for improving the suitability of industrial technical progress bias as soon as possible.Thirdly,from the industrial perspective,labor-intensive industries should stabilize their suitability level of technical progress bias in an appropriate level and continuously improve their suitable degree by improving the scale of the industry,profitability,R&D investment and human capital.For capital intensive industries,it is necessary to increase R&D investment to maintain the suitability advantages of their technical progress bias.For technology-intensive industries,it is necessary to increase R&D investment and raise the level of human capital to maintain the suitability advantages of their technical progress bias.For resource-intensive industries,the determinative effect of its technical progress bias should be promoted to return to market-oriented adjustments,and effectively exert the influence of various factors on the suitability of its technical progress bias,promote it changing from an unsuitable status to a suitable status as soon as possible,and finally reverse its negative impact on the growth of TFP. |
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