| To solve the problem of employment and income gap is a major task of social and economic development,which is the core focus of the government and the country.The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China regards the promotion of employment as an important part of China's social and economic development.It puts forward the policy of giving priority to employment,ensuring employment stability,expanding employment capacity and scale,improving employment quality and optimizing employment structure.At present,China's total employment pressure is still large,and the employment situation is very severe,including unskilled workers and skilled workers,and the structural contradiction of employment is prominent.At the same time,the problem of recruitment is also emerging,and the phenomenon of"shortage of skilled workers" and "shortage of migrant workers" coexists.Similarly,as one of the key issues of people's livelihood,excessive income gap will worsen the social income distribution,and have a negative impact on social harmony and stability.Excessive industry income gap will also restrict the development of basic industries,which is not conducive to the inclusive growth of social economy.And too small income gap will reduce the vitality of economic development,and it will be unfavorable to the harmonious development of social economy and society in the long run.In the coexistence of "shortage of skilled workers" and "shortage of migrant workers",how to change the income gap between skilled workers and unskilled workers and how to maintain a reasonable income gap are also practical problems that need to be focused on.The impact of technological progress on employment and income has been concerned by many scholars.Most of the existing researches are based on neutral technology progress,and there are different views on whether technological progress creates employment or reduces employment and how it affects the wage gap.However,technological progress is characterized by factor bias.In order to fully understand the impact of technological progress on the employment and wage gap,we need to consider the bias of technological progress and study the impact of technological progress bias on the employment and wage gap.In view of the key issues concerned by the state and the public,such as stabilizing employment and adjusting income gap,taking into account the importance of manufacturing and its key role in employment absorption and improving employment structure,it is a key research topic to fully understand the trend of the total employment of manufacturing industry and adjust the employment structure and wage gap of manufacturing industry steadily.Therefore,from the perspective of China's manufacturing technology progress bias,based on the judgment of China's manufacturing technology progress bias,this paper studies the impact of China's manufacturing technology progress bias on the total amount of manufacturing employment,employment structure and wage gap,in order to provide reference for relevant policy-making.This paper mainly includes seven parts.The first chapter is the introduction.Based on the research background and significance,this chapter introduces the research ideas and content,and discusses the research methods and innovation points.The second chapter is the literature review and theoretical basis.Firstly,this chapter reviews and combs the relevant literature on the bias of technological progress,the impact of technological progress and its bias on employment,and the impact of technological progress bias on wage income.Secondly,this chapter judges the bias of technological progress,and establishes a theoretical model of the impact of the bias of technological progress on the total amount of employment,employment structure and wage gap.The third chapter measures the technological progress bias of China's manufacturing industry.This chapter mainly includes two parts.The first part measures the capital bias of technological progress in China's manufacturing industry.After establishing a two factor CES production function model including capital and labor and carrying out standardized processing,this paper uses the time series data of China's manufacturing industry,the panel data of manufacturing industry and the three equation standardized supply side system to measure the overall technological progress capital bias of China's manufacturing industry and the industrial technological progress capital bias.The second part measures the skill bias of China's manufacturing technology progress.After establishing and standardizing a two-layer nested CES production function model including capital,skilled labor and unskilled labor,this paper uses relevant data and four equation standardized supply side system to measure the skill bias of technological progress in China's manufacturing industry as a whole and at the industry level.The fourth chapter is an empirical study on the effect of capital bias of technological progress on total employment in China's manufacturing industry.Based on the descriptive statistical analysis of the change trend of the total employment of China's manufacturing industry,this chapter establishes the effect model of the capital bias of technological progress on the total employment of China's manufacturing industry,and makes an empirical analysis of the effect of the capital bias of technological progress on the total employment of China's manufacturing industry.Then,this chapter analyzes the difference of the influence of technology progress capital bias on the total employment of manufacturing industries with different technology levels.The fifth chapter studies the effect of skill bias on employment structure.Based on the descriptive statistical analysis of the change trend of employment structure in China's manufacturing industry,this chapter establishes the influence effect model of technology progress skill bias on employment structure,and makes an empirical analysis on the influence effect of technology progress skill bias on employment structure in China's manufacturing industry.It also analyzes the differences of the influence of technological progress skill bias on employment structure in manufacturing industries with different technological levels.The sixth chapter makes an empirical study on the effect of skill bias on wage gap in China's manufacturing industry.Firstly,based on the descriptive statistical analysis of the change trend of skill wage gap in China's manufacturing industry,this chapter establishes the direct effect model of skill bias on wage gap in China's manufacturing industry,and uses GMM method to analyze the direct effect of skill bias on wage gap in China's manufacturing industry.Secondly,this chapter establishes a mediating effect model to empirically analyze whether skill bias of technological progress can indirectly affect wage gap through employment structure.Finally,from a non-linear perspective,this chapter constructs a panel threshold econometric model to study the relationship between technological progress skill bias and wage gap in China's manufacturing industry under different ownership structures and R?D capital stock,so as to make a more comprehensive empirical analysis of the relationship between the two.The seventh chapter is the research conclusion and prospect,which mainly summarizes the research conclusion of this paper,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions according to the conclusion.In addition,in view of the shortcomings of this study,it points out the future research prospects.According to the above research process,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The measurement of technology bias between capital factor and labor factor shows that the overall technology progress of China's manufacturing industry mainly presents the characteristics of capital bias from 2004 to 2018.The measurement of technology bias between skilled labor and unskilled labor in China's manufacturing industry shows that the overall technology bias of manufacturing industry fluctuates,and the technology bias index is less than 0 in most years,which means that the overall technology progress of manufacturing industry mainly presents unskilled bias.Therefore,for China's manufacturing industry as a whole,the complementarity of capital and skills may be poor.Technological progress does not show the dual bias characteristics of capital and skills,but shows the characteristics of capital and unskilled labor bias.Based on the survey of four types of manufacturing industries with different technological levels,we find that the measurement of technological progress bias between capital factor and labor factor shows that the technological progress of high tech manufacturing industries tends to capital factor in most years,and the capital bias index of the other three types of manufacturing industries shows a relatively fluctuating trend.The measurement of the bias of technological progress between skilled labor and unskilled labor shows that the bias of technological progress also presents a relatively fluctuating trend,in which the high tech and low tech manufacturing industries tend to skilled labor in most years,and the medium high tech and low tech manufacturing industries tend to unskilled labor in most years.Based on the survey of manufacturing industry segments,it is found that the measurement of technological progress bias between capital factor and labor factor shows that 75%of the manufacturing industry segments are mainly biased towards capital factor.The measurement of the bias of technological progress between skilled labor and unskilled labor shows that the persistence of the bias of technological progress in sub industries is also poor,and it fluctuates between skilled labor and unskilled labor.(2)Empirical analysis of the econometric model shows that the capital bias of technological progress in China's manufacturing industry has a negative impact on the total employment,that is,the more technological progress tends to capital,the less conducive to the improvement of manufacturing employment.The measurement results show that the technological progress of China's manufacturing industry is mainly characterized by capital bias between capital and labor,which leads to the current difficult employment phenomenon.In the further empirical study on the relationship between the capital bias of technological progress and the employment of four types of manufacturing industries with different technological levels,it is found that the higher the technological level of manufacturing industries,the greater the negative impact of the capital bias of technological progress on the total employment.This shows that the capital bias of China's manufacturing technology progress has a limited impact on the low technology manufacturing industry,but it has a great impact on the employment of high technology industries,which is not conducive to the employment of workers in these industries.This feature needs to be considered in the process of employment policy-making.(3)The empirical analysis of the econometric model shows that the effect of technology progress skill bias on employment structure is positive.The more technology progress tends to skilled labor,the greater the effect on employment structure.According to the measurement of skill bias of China's manufacturing technology progress,it is found that during the research period,the bias between skilled labor factors and unskilled labor factors of China's manufacturing technology progress is constantly fluctuating,which may not be able to effectively optimize the employment structure of manufacturing industry,and cause the current phenomenon of "shortage of skilled workers" and "shortage of migrant workers" to exist at the same time.Furthermore,the results show that the technology progress skill bias of high tech and medium high tech manufacturing industries has a greater impact on the employment structure,while the technology progress skill bias of low tech manufacturing industries has a relatively small impact on the employment structure.In order to effectively promote the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry with high technology level,we need to pay attention to the guidance of the change of technological progress bias in the employment policy-making,balance the bias of technological progress between skilled labor and unskilled labor,and then optimize the employment structure of the manufacturing industry by using its impact on the employment structure.(4)The empirical analysis on the influence effect of skill bias and wage gap in China's manufacturing industry shows that,firstly,under the direct effect model,the more technical progress in China's manufacturing industry tends to skilled labor,the greater the wage gap between heterogeneous labor.Secondly,under the indirect effect model,through the construction of the intermediary effect econometric model,the results show that the manufacturing technology progress skill bias can have a negative effect on the wage gap of the manufacturing industry by increasing the employment structure index.During the research period,the technological progress bias of China's manufacturing industry fluctuates between skilled labor factors and unskilled labor factors,and the technological progress mainly presents unskilled bias.Although this can reduce the negative impact of the widening wage gap,if the wage gap continues to narrow,it will eventually affect the supply of skilled labor,which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry.Finally,from the perspective of non-linear,the panel threshold model with ownership structure as the threshold variable shows that under different ownership structure levels,the skill bias of technological progress in Chinese manufacturing industry has a significant non-linear impact on the wage gap.In the range of ownership structure less than the threshold value,technological progress skill bias has no significant effect on the wage gap of manufacturing industry.In the range of ownership structure greater than the threshold value,technological progress skill bias significantly expands the wage gap of manufacturing industry.Under different R?D capital stocks,the technological progress skill bias of China's manufacturing industry also has a nonlinear effect on the industry wage gap.In the range of R?D capital stock not exceeding the threshold value,manufacturing technology progress skill bias will narrow the wage gap,while in the range of R?D capital stock exceeding the threshold value,manufacturing technology progress skill bias will expand the wage gap.The innovation points of this paper are as follows:(1)Previous studies have mainly studied the "employment creation" and "employment substitution" effects of technological progress under the assumption of neutral technological progress.Based on the hypothesis of biased technological progress,this paper studies the effect of the biased technological progress between capital and labor on the employment of China's manufacturing industry,and the effect of the biased technological progress between skilled labor and unskilled labor on the employment structure of China's manufacturing industry,in order to verify the relationship between technological progress and employment more comprehensively.(2)According to previous studies,consistent with developed countries,China's technological progress is also characterized by skill bias,which leads to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor and a decrease in the relative demand for unskilled labor.However,this paper uses the standardized supply side system method to measure the factor bias of technological progress in China's manufacturing industry,and finds that the technological progress bias of China's manufacturing industry fluctuates between skilled labor and unskilled labor,and the persistence of technological progress bias is poor.Based on the measurement of manufacturing industries with different technological levels,it is found that the technological progress of high tech and low tech manufacturing industries tends to skilled labor in most years,and that of medium high tech and low tech manufacturing industries tends to unskilled labor in most years.(3)Previous studies mainly believe that the wage gap between skilled labor and unskilled labor expands under the characteristics of technological progress skill bias.This paper finds that the influence of the characteristics of technological progress bias fluctuating between skilled and unskilled labor on the wage gap is not linear,but nonlinear In the process of empirical analysis of the relationship between the two,it is found that within the range of ownership structure less than threshold,the effect of technology progress skill bias on the wage gap in manufacturing industry is not significant.In the areas where ownership structure is greater than threshold value,the technology progress skill bias significantly expands the industry wage gap.In the process of empirical analysis on the relationship between R?D capital stock and the industry,it is found that in the range of R?D capital stock not exceeding the threshold,manufacturing technology progress skill bias will narrow the industry wage gap,while in the range of R?D capital stock exceeding the threshold,manufacturing technology progress skill bias will expand the industry wage gap. |
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