Analysis On Employment Effect Of Technological Progress In Manufacturing Industry In China

Employment is not only a major livelihood issue that has attracted the attention of all people,but also one of the goals of China's economic development.As an important production factor,Technology has a great impact on economic growth and employment.Especially in the era of rapid technological development,technological progress has become an important force driving economic growth and an important factor affecting employment.On the one hand,technological advancement has increased employment while promoting rapid economic development;on the other hand,technological advancement will also have an impact on the current industrial structure,thus posing a certain threat to employment.Since 2012,China's economy has begun to transform and upgrade,from high-speed development to high-quality development.Since then,artificial intelligence,Internet of Things,big data,cloud computing and other new technologies that can replace a large number of people have begun to be applied to production activities,and employment issues in China have become more and more serious,especially in manufacturing.In the past,China's manufacturing industry engaged in low-end processing and international OEM work with low-cost labor,and formed a large number of labor-intensive industries,which provided a large number of jobs.With the transformation of China's economy,China's manufacturing industry has begun to upgrade,the industrial structure has changed,and intensive employment will face the threat of being replaced by intelligent manufacturing.As a pillar industry of China's national economy,the manufacturing industry contributes more than 30% to the gross national product and provides 33% of the total employment.Due to the economic transformation and upgrading,and the large-scale application of new technologies,the manufacturing industry suffered the biggest impact.The manufacturing industry plays an important role in the economy,and it is of great practical significance to deal with the employment issues while ensuring the steady transformation of the economy.Based on this,this paper studies the existing employment effect theory about technological progress,based on the maximization of manufacturers' interests,deduces the theoretical model through C-D production function,and selects the data of each sub-sector of China's manufacturing industry to analyze the employment effect of China's manufacturing technology advancement..This paper takes the R&D expenditure of each sub-sector of manufacturing industry as the index to measure the progress of technology,takes the output value of each sub-industry of the manufacturing industry as the output index,and takes the total employment of all industries in the manufacturing industry as the employment demand index.Takes the total real wages of various industries in the manufacturing industry as wage indicators,and takes the fixed assets of various industries in the manufacturing industry as indicators of capital stock.The panel data from 2007 to 2016 were selected for regression analysis to explore the impact of technological progress on employment in China's manufacturing industry.In this paper,the data of each variable is tested for stationarity,the results show that each variable is stable after the first-order difference.Subsequently,a cointegration test is carried out and it is found that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables.In the selection of panel data regression model,this paper adopts F test method and Hausman test method,and finally selects fixed effect model for regression analysis.In order to gain a better understanding of whether there is a difference in the impact of technological advances between different types of industries on employment,high-tech industries and low-tech industries were selected according to the level of technology in each industry,and regression analysis is performed on each of them.The regression results show that in the short term the technological advancement of the manufacturing industry has a certain destructive effect on the employment,but the capital stock and output value are positively related to the employment,indicating that technological progress has a certain compensation effect on employment by increasing the output value of the enterprise and the capital stock.The group regression shows that although technological progress has destructive effects on employment in different technical level industries,but the degree of the effects are different.The impact of technological advances on employment in high-tech industries is higher than in low-tech industries.