The Coupling Of Population Movement And Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity In China

Population is the basis of all economic and social activities.For hundreds of years,the global epic migration of population has led to regional rise and fall,industrial change and hegemony change.Population movement leads to changes in the demand for land resources,thus affecting economic and social development.Land resource is an important material basis for human survival and development,and plays an irreplaceable role in the long history of human evolution.With the high intensity of social and economic activities and the rapid process of urbanization,the contradiction between human activities and resources and environment has become increasingly prominent,and the global land resources have entered a state of early warning or overload.Therefore,how to coordinate the orderly movement of population,scientifically and reasonably evaluate and analyze the coupling status of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity is the basis to realize the coordinated development of human land relationship and the optimal layout of land space,which is of great significance to the rational use of land resources and the healthy and sustainable development of regional economy and society.Based on the theories of land resource management and human geography,this paper systematically summarizes the relevant research results at home and abroad.Based on the analysis framework of the coupling and coordination system of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,this paper takes 287 cities divided into districts(i.e.cities at prefecture level and above)in China as the research scope to depict the spatial characteristics of population movement,This paper scientifically measures and evaluates the land comprehensive carrying capacity,constructs the coupling coordination degree model of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,explores their coupling process and coupling characteristics,identifies the driving factors affecting their coupling coordination relationship,and then analyzes the coupling mechanism of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity.Compared with the traditional research on the relationship between population and land(focusing on the static coupling of population and land comprehensive carrying capacity),this paper extends the scope of research to the cross regional scale,focusing on the impact of cross regional population movement on the coupling and coordination relationship of human land system,enriching the research content of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity in the theory of human land relationship,It is helpful to pay more attention to the coordinated development of human land relationship in China from the dynamic perspective of regional relations,and provides a new perspective for the study of human land relationship.The paper is divided into eight chapters and four parts:The first part is the problem and theoretical discussion,which consists of the first,second and third chapters.It mainly explains the research background,puts forward the research problems,and defines the research significance,research methods,research objectives and framework;This paper defines the concepts of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,and reviews the relevant basic theories and research progress at home and abroad.The second part is the research on the characteristics of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,which consists of the fourth and fifth chapters.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of population movement in 287 cities divided into districts in China based on Tencent location big data;In the fifth chapter,by constructing the index evaluation system of land comprehensive carrying capacity,we measure the land comprehensive carrying capacity of 287 cities,and analyze their spatial pattern and spatial autocorrelation.The third part is the coupling relationship and mechanism between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,which is composed of the sixth and seventh chapters.In the sixth chapter,based on the research results of the third and fourth chapters,the coupling coordination model of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity is constructed to comprehensively measure and evaluate the coupling coordination degree of 287 cities in China;Based on the research results of Chapter 6,the seventh chapter further analyzes the interaction mode of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,constructs the driving factor system of coupling coordination degree,and deeply analyzes the factors that have significant influence on the coupling relationship between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,so as to summarize the coupling mechanism of the two.The fourth part is the conclusion and prospect,that is,the eighth chapter is the summary of the research conclusions and views of this paper,including the main research conclusions,possible innovations,as well as the shortcomings and prospects of the research.The main ideas and contents of this paper are as follows:1.China's population movement presents a spatial network structure with "diamond" as the core,and the nodes and channels of population movement are concentrated in the east of Hu Huanyong line.The urban agglomerations based on population movement connection show obvious geographical proximity and inter provincial differentiation.They not only form small urban agglomerations with provincial capital cities as the core,subject to provincial boundary constraints,and dominated by the first contact,but also form large-scale multi center structures across provincial administrative boundaries in Northeast,northwest,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Beijing Tianjin Hebei and other regions Urban subgroup.The influencing factors of China's population movement network based on ERGM model can be explained by network structure effect,node attribute effect and exogenous network effect.Among them,the per capita technology expenditure and per capita education expenditure which determine the effect of facilities did not pass the significance level test,indicating that the regional differences of facilities convenience have no significant impact on China's population mobility.At the same time,most of the other variables(urbanization level,urban population size)based on neoclassical economic theory are of great significance.Therefore,we are more inclined to neoclassical economic theory,which can more truly describe the formation of China's population movement network.2.The comprehensive carrying capacity of land is the joint force of bearing pressure supporting capacity and destructive capacity restoring capacity.The change of the force leads to the significant difference of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land among regions.The results show that the land comprehensive carrying capacity of China's cities divided into districts is mainly at medium and low carrying levels,and the cities with high or high carrying levels are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Basin,the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,the Songhua River Basin,and the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei three urban agglomerations,showing obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics.Based on Moran index,the results show that the land comprehensive carrying capacity has a significant spatial positive correlation.The high and high concentration areas of land comprehensive carrying capacity are mainly distributed in China's developed economic belt,while the low and low concentration areas are mainly distributed in the underdeveloped economic belt.Among them,the clustering characteristics of land pressure and destructive power have high consistency,while the supporting power and resilience show the agglomeration pattern of "high in the South and low in the north" and "low in the South and high in the north" respectively.On the whole,the agglomeration scale of high high agglomeration area and low low agglomeration area is larger than that of high low agglomeration area and low high agglomeration area,and the latter is also relatively dispersed in spatial distribution.3.There is a clear interaction between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,and it generally presents a spatial feature of high coupling low coordination on a national scale,with significant spatial autocorrelation between coupling degree and coordination degree.Through the calculation of the coupling degree and coordination degree of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,the results show that there is a strong interaction between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity in China's cities with districts,but the overall coupling effect does not reach a benign coupling state,and the population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity in most cities are still in a mild imbalance state.Based on Moran index,the results show that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between the coupling coordination degree of population movement network and land comprehensive carrying system,in which the characteristics of high value clustering and low value clustering are more obvious,and the number of agglomeration areas is relatively large and the agglomeration scale is relatively large;High and low value clustering and low high value clustering are mainly distributed around low value clustering and high value clustering,and separate high and low value clustering areas will be formed in some provincial capital cities.4.The impact of population movement on land comprehensive carrying capacity is positive effect of internal and external movement network on land comprehensive carrying capacity.The external network effect of population movement directly affects the land socio-economic subsystem in the region through the inter regional socio-economic connection,and indirectly affects the resource subsystem and environment subsystem through the implicit resource flow generated in the process of socio-economic connection.The internal network effect of population movement shows that the population movement between cities has a significant impact on the population size,population density,spatial distribution characteristics of population(between urban and rural areas,between functional areas),population structure(age,gender,occupation,family),etc.the change of regional population elements will directly affect the land resources,environment and socio-economic subsystem,Population movement has a comprehensive effect on land comprehensive carrying system through the influence of population factors in the region.Therefore,the effect of population movement on land comprehensive carrying capacity is the comprehensive effect of internal and external network formation.Through the multiple regression analysis of population movement network and land comprehensive carrying capacity system,we can see that the total amount,flow intensity,degree centrality and proximity centrality of population movement have significant positive correlation with land comprehensive carrying capacity,and there is no U-shaped relationship between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity,which further confirms the conjecture of hypothesis 1,That is to say,population movement always has a positive role in promoting the comprehensive carrying capacity of land.5.The impact of land comprehensive carrying capacity on population movement is manifested as the comprehensive carrying effect of land resources,environment and socio-economic subsystem on population movement.Among them,the effect process of environment subsystem on population movement is mainly reflected in the significant positive impact of environmental recovery and governance capacity on population movement,and the effect process of resource subsystem on population movement is mainly reflected in the significant positive impact of land resources on population movement,The process of social and economic subsystem's effect on population movement is mainly reflected in the significant positive impact of population factors on population movement.At the same time,as the medium of resource and environment subsystem's effect on population movement,the driving factors related to resource and environment are transformed into the process of effect on population movement through their impact on social economy.Although the specific action forms and related factors of each subsystem on population movement are different,in contrast,the "pull" effect of land comprehensive carrying system on population movement is more obvious,while the indicators related to the push effect,such as wastewater discharge,waste generation,urban unemployment rate,and annual cultivated land reduction area,have no significant impact on population movement.Therefore,it confirms the viewpoint of hypothesis 2,that is,the effect of land comprehensive carrying capacity on population movement is mainly "pulling force",and regions with higher land comprehensive carrying capacity are more attractive to population movement.6.The coupling mechanism of population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity refers to the two-way promotion of land comprehensive carrying capacity by the internal and external effects of population movement network(flow intensity,degree centrality,proximity centrality and flow density)and the joint "pulling force" of land resources,environment and socio-economic carrying subsystem on population movement,Driven by internal resources,social and economic factors,as well as external geographical distance,time distance and high-speed rail connectivity,the coupling relationship between population movement and land comprehensive carrying capacity has changed,showing a high degree of coupling coordination in developed regions,However,the coupling coordination degree of economic backward areas is low.The results show that the internal factors(resource factors,social factors,economic factors)and external factors(time distance,geographical distance and high-speed rail connectivity)have a significant impact on the coupling coordination degree,which further confirms the close relationship between the coupling coordination degree and inter regional related factors.