Research On The Development Prospects Of The U.S. TPP In The Perspective Of Trade Effects

Regional economic integration has become a typical model in today's world leadingeconomy, as major countries and regional groups to pay particular attention to thedevelopment of regional and sub-regional trade arrangements, in order to promote theliberalization and facilitation of regional trade and investment as well as regionaleconomic development. In this context, U.S., having supported the multilateral tradesystem, also complies with the trend, by promoting or participating in the regionaleconomic interation to consolidate its important status in the world economy, which fullyshows the change of priorities of American trade policy, namely switching from trademultilateralism to regionalism. Based on the analysis of American Asia-Pacific tradepolicy after "financial crisis", the "new period" is defined when U.S. actively joined inTPP, origionally signed by several small Asia-Pacific nations, and then positively led aswell as vigorously promoted it, by which U.S.could not only decide the process and thefrequency of TPP's negotiation, also realize its aim from the view of politics andeconomy. The mutually influenced and dependent relationship between U.S. and TPP hascome into being, which is the reason for "U.S. TPP" called in the following study. DoesU.S. really want to achieve its pure economic purpose through TPP, hope to achieveeconomic objective in the name of realizing political objective to judge Asia Pacificaffairs reality, or to contain China's development? How is the prospect of TPP? What arethe China's choices and countermeasures? So the analysis of TPP system is necessary,which concludes not only the review of the study on development of TPP but also theaccurate estimation on it's influence. Based on the above ideas, the main content comesas follows:The first chapter is the introduction part which explains the background andsignificance of writing, reviews the relevent research literature, and then puts forward thelogic of writing.The second chapter is the theoretical framework of trade effect of regional economicintegration, which defines the connotations of regionalism and regional economicintegration firstly, in order to determine the attributes of TPP, then brings about therelated theories of regionalism and regional economic integration, a structural basis for the further analysis; finally, covers the theories of trade effect of regional economicintegration, which includes the analysis of effect of trade creation effect and tradediversion under the framework of partial equilibrium of Viner's model, and the welfareanalysis under the general equilibrium of Meade's, providing the theory basis for thefollowing empirical analysis by the two above models.The third chapter analyses the American regional economic integration strategyfrom the global perspective, focuses on how U.S. transformed its trade policy frommulti-lateralism to regionalism in order to maintain its hegemony in the world, theobjective of which is to tease out the emphasis on the shift of America recent regionaleconomic integration strategy, as well as the origin, development and characteristics ofTPP, to provide the necessary basis for the following analysis.The fourth chapter analyses the intention of U.S.TPP strategy, mainly from themotivations of politics, economy, and conception, trying to find out the real objective ofjoin in TPP for U.S., the content of which belongs to the traditional specification analysisfor regional economic integration, as prerequisite for the following empirical analysis.The fifth chapter belongs to empirical analysis of trade effect of U.S. TPP, being inuse of the Gravity model and GTAP model, which represent the partial equilibriumanalysis and the general equilibrium analysis respectively. The empirical summary of thetwo methods is being put forward at the beginning as to find out the reasons of the usageof the two methods in this paper; then expansion path of U.S.TPP and the welfare effectof various members and non-members of TPP are stressed, as the focus of the fullargument.The sixth chapter puts forward the factors that affect the trade effects'implementation of American TPP, ie. basing on the conclusion of the former empiricalanalysis, domestic factors of U.S. and other member countries together with the factorsof global environment are considered to test whether or not they would block the tradeeffects's implementation, which belongs to the qualitative analysis corresponding to thatof the fifth chapter.The prediction on the prospect of TPP and China's countermeasures has beenexpounded in the seventh chapter. With the basis of the empirical analysis of trade effectsof TPP, first comes up with the development prospects of TPP in the future, by which brings about the suggestions for China to play an role in the regional integration and totake the corresponding countermeasures in the future.Through the above analysis the conclusions are being drawn as follows:Firstly, the necessity and feasibility of transformation of American trade policypriorities from multilateralism to regionalism exist in reality, namely when themultilateralism U.S. insisted on encountered setbacks, American trade policy forced toshift to regionalism; regionalism has irreplaceable advantages comparing tomultilateralism, such as lower negotiation cost, more flexibility to deal with the problemand short-term effectiveness etc.Secondly, TPP is one of multinational, wide-region trade integration agreements,with high standard, open, constraints and progressive characteristics, but at the same time,the protocol also has a series of open questions, namely whether the high standard wouldbe implemented; whether "Pasta Bowl effect" can be solved and whether the target ofimplementation of multilateral regionalism can be realized etc. Therefore, thecharacteristics of the TPP decided it will become a new regional trade policy U.S. wouldturn to in the Asia-Pacific region after APEC to regain dominance in this area, but suchopen questions about TPP would add the uncertainty of U.S.TPP in the future.Thirdly, through the analysis of gravity model, results have been drawn out that: it ispossible for U.S. to attract more large economies in TPP, especially those who havesigned the treaties with economic purpose and political and military alliance; inaccordance with the possible expansion path of TPP derived from the gravity model,following simulation designs under GTAP have been thought out, ie. South Korea to joinin, all ASEAN countries to join in and all the APEC countries to join in, and draws thefollowing conclusions:1) the political intention for South Korea joining in the TPP ismore obvious because of its not significant benefit after joining in2) with the gradualexpansion of TPP members, benefits of members of would be more and more, especiallythe large economies would get greater improvement, while they would encounter certainlosses if they do not join in.3) the importance of China on TPP would not be ignored,and the TPP without China would not be complete.Finally, on the basis of analysis of the trade effect of TPP and the relative influentialfactors, it can be predicted that, the main differences of the negotiations will be smoothly done or easily solved; in short term are most likely to join the country is South Korea,and in the long run, it is unlikely to massively expand for TPP member, so China wouldunlikely get the quick invitation to join in from TPP, but once China requests to join, itwould be certain get welcome from most member countries of TPP. Therefore, Chinawould not joined immediately upon receipt of the TPP invitation, delay to join afterconsideration or get ready to join the TPP, including positively improving otherintegration process in this area, adjusting domestic industrial structure, striving for thesupport of public opinions, and select the appropriate timing to join TPP, switching fromnegative position to active position.