The Empirical Study Of Demographic Dividend On Economic Growth Under The Age Structure Change

Over the past 30 years,the demographic dividend had played a huge role in China's economic growth.However,the demographic dividend will not always exist,and will gradually disappear along with the continuous change of the age structure,even become the demographic liabilities.In recent years,with the proportion of working age population declining and dependency ratio rising,our country had experienced a golden age of the demographic dividend,began to after the era of the demographic dividend.As the populous ?the major agricultural province ?the large labor output and new industrial province of the hinterland of the central plains.The economic development of Henan province is very similar with our country,but the changing of population structure had its particularity.Therefore,studying the relationship between the demographic dividend and the economic growth in Henan Province,and understanding the problems correctly of demographic dividend using,having a certain practical and reference significance to demographic dividend theory studying of Henan province and other province.Based on this,the paper firstly determined the demographic dividend period according to the changing of Henan province natural population and the trend of the population age structure,which showed that Henan province had been in demographic dividend period since 1998.And the population age structure tends to be young compared with the nationwide.The demographic dividend period will last longer.Secondly,measuring the population demographic dividend by total dependency ratio,and establishing VAR model to study the relationship between demographic dividend and economic growth of Henan province.The results showed that there is a long-term stable relationship between them.In the long term,the total dependency ratio had a significant negative effect the GDP per capita;in the short term,the total dependency ratio changing is not significant directly to the economic growth.Then,on the basis of the research,analyzed the contribution of dividend period to economic growth by comparing the Henan province and the nationwide,Henan province and other province,the urban and rural of Henan province,the cities of Henan province,which showed the demographic dividend in Henan province had spillover phenomenon.Next,explaining the spillover phenomenon of demographic dividend from the industrial structure,urbanization,migration.Finally,according to the opportunities and challenges of the demographic dividend period which Henan province are facing,giving the policy suggestions from the new urbanization,agricultural modernization,human resources development,and the upgrading of the industrial structure,etc.