| A second poverty alleviation and development outline for the new millennium,issued by the State Council in 2011 " China's Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Program(2011-2020)",sets out the goal of eliminating absolute rural poverty by 2020.In order to achieve this goal,President Xi first proposed "precision poverty alleviation" during his visit to Xiangxi Hunan in November 2013.In January2014,the framework and rules of precision poverty alleviation were designed in detail,and the idea of "precision poverty alleviation" fell to the ground.In mid-November2015,the conference on poverty alleviation and development was held in Beijing.General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that China has entered the stage of poverty alleviation and tackling key problems to ensure that by the end of 2020,the rural poor will achieve poverty eradication under the current standards.March 5,2019,Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: a good precision fight against poverty.The poor population of our country is mainly concentrated in the countryside,and most of the rural population lives on agriculture,so it is necessary to solve the poverty problem of the rural population from agriculture.One of the important means to get rid of poverty is:agricultural poverty alleviation.What is the contribution of agricultural poverty alleviation to poverty reduction?According to research,agricultural growth in GDP is twice as high as non-agricultural growth in GDP(World Bank,2008).A study by the World Bank(2000)showed that the incidence of poverty was sensitive to changing trends in rural agriculture and that in provinces where the share of agriculture faster in GDP,the rate of poverty reduction was slower.A simple linear regression also shows that the share of agricultural added value in the GDP is reduced by one percentage point,and the rate of reduction of the poor is reduced by 1.9 percentage points is reduced by 1.9percentage points.For China,agriculture is the pillar industry in the vast number of poor areas and the most direct livelihood industry to benefit the vast number of farmers.The total agricultural output value of China has been maintained at more than10% before 1996,and the same period is also a period of rapid decline in the number of poor people in China.It can be seen that the first prerequisite for the success of poverty alleviation is the rapid and stable development of agriculture,which has aspecial contribution to poverty reduction.Diversifying the agricultural risks faced by poor areas is an effective way to achieve poverty eradication.At present,agricultural production in poor areas of our country is mainly faced with natural risks and market risks.On the one hand,most of the poor areas in our country are in remote areas with frequent natural disasters,and agricultural production is affected by many natural factors.In 2019,the main natural disasters in China were floods,typhoons,droughts,earthquakes and geological disasters,resulting in direct economic losses of 327.09 billion yuan for agriculture and19256.9 thousand hectares of crops.On the other hand,in the process of agricultural marketization,market risk has been highlighted as the main risk of agricultural development,the main table is now price volatility risk.As long as it is a market economy,there must be price risk.After our country joined the WTO in 2001,facing the internationalization "big market ",has further increased the agriculture this " small market " instability.Since then,the risk factors facing agricultural production are more complex,agricultural production and operation are increasingly affected by market risks,and will gradually become the main factor for the agricultural population to fall into poverty.Therefore,to do a good job of poverty alleviation in the agricultural industry,it is necessary to resolve the natural risks and price risks encountered in agricultural production.Agricultural insurance can transfer the risks faced in the process of agricultural production and is the main force in agricultural poverty alleviation.In 2016,10 supporting documents and 101 relevant documents and policies were issued by various ministries and governments at all levels to carry out poverty alleviation work.In the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Winning the Fight against Poverty "(hereinafter referred to as " Decision on Fighting against Poverty "),the "Insurance Poverty Alleviation" is an important part of the "Decision on Fighting against Poverty ".At the same time," on doing a good job in the insurance industry to help lift out of poverty " to formulate a specific implementation plan.Agricultural insurance is a kind of insurance which is specially designed for agricultural producers to guarantee the economic losses caused by natural disasters,accidents,diseases and other insurance accidents in the process of agricultural production.The most important measure to get rid of poverty is to help agricultural producers to transfer agricultural risks.Agricultural insurance,as a "timely rain ",isnot only a quick way to provide the necessary economic compensation for the affected farmers,but also a strong support to stabilize agricultural production and help poor farmers out of poverty.The traditional agricultural insurance in our country,which is based on guaranteed output,can effectively disperse the natural risks encountered in agricultural production and thus play the role of poverty alleviation.Production insurance is a kind of agricultural insurance which takes the loss of crop yield as the subject matter of insurance,and takes the crop to suffer natural disasters,and the yield is lower than the contract as the condition of insurance accident as the condition of insurance payment.Production insurance prevents households from falling into poverty traps because of natural risks,and it provides a safety net for people in poverty traps(Chantarat et al.(2009)and Kovacevic and Pflug(2011)).But the frequency and degree of agricultural insurance loss is relatively high,to achieve the financial balance of agricultural insurance business,the rate will be very high.Therefore,the high premium of commercial agricultural yield insurance for most small-scale agricultural operators in China,most farmers are unwilling or even unable to pay the premium.How to solve the problem of high premium of agricultural insurance and improve the poverty alleviation effect of commercial agricultural yield insurance? At present,China is committed to winning the battle against poverty.In order to eliminate all the rural absolute poor under the existing standards by 2020,it has invested unprecedented amounts of funds and administrative resources to implement precision poverty alleviation.Because most poor farmers can not afford insurance,can not obtain loans,can not afford the interest on loans and so on,the poverty alleviation measures are avoided,which hinders the process of poverty alleviation.From the perspective of the financial system,it is difficult for poor farmers to obtain financial sector support,and there is no collateral to obtain The loan carries on the scale production operation to increase the income.Therefore,the process of poverty alleviation needs the support of insurance companies,banks,and government financial subsidies.The model of "government bank guarantee "(" government" means government subsidy to interest," bank " means low interest rate on loans issued by banks," insurance" means insurance company underwriting)can benefit more poor people and is a model of poverty alleviation innovation.The cooperation mode of "government,bank and insurance" is as follows: the poor households without guarantee and mortgage are guaranteed by the insurance company,and the government helps the poor to carry out the discount interest,forming a good mechanism of poverty alleviation "government-led,bank-provided services,insurance company protection and income of poor households ",which is effective and effective The coverage of the beneficiary population has been expanded.loans can support the cost of technology investment for poor farmers.insurance can address the high-risk concerns and concerns of new technologies.in some cases,households with interconnected credit insurance contracts seem more likely to adopt high-tech agricultural farming methods(Farrin and Miranda,2015).In 2017,the government of Lingbao,Lingbao Rural Credit Union and Lingbao Property Insurance Company of Henan Province cooperated in the "government,bank and insurance" trinity poverty alleviation model,concentrated superior resources to poor households,to ensure the realization of the goal of "supporting agriculture,convenience agriculture,benefit agriculture,strong agriculture ",and constructed a coordinated effort and The risk-sharing financial cooperation framework for poverty alleviation has further promoted the implementation of poverty alleviation policies and promoted the income increase of poor households.In the face of the challenge of agricultural marketization and internationalization,every year in China,there are examples of farmers falling into poverty due to the decline of crop prices.How to deal with the risk of price fluctuation under the new situation? We should take price insurance as an important grasp and comprehensively use market-oriented tools such as target price subsidy,futures,options,price insurance and so on.Agriculture can be understood as the enterprise of means of production,the means of production determines the industry to engage in the industry's meagre profits,the ability of the industry to face the risk of price fluctuations is very poor.Diversified price risk is the objective requirement to stabilize the income of poor farmers,and the price of agricultural products is the basis of other commodity prices Without measures to spread the price risk of agricultural products,the agricultural production of poor farmers would fall into a vicious circle.In our country,how to protect poor farmers from the disaster caused by the fluctuation of crop prices is the focus of special attention of the government.The essence of the temporary collection and storage system is to stabilize the agricultural product marketby the way of government intervention in the market,and to regulate the crop price macroscopically,which to a great extent alleviates the adverse effects of the fluctuation of agricultural product price on the increase of agricultural products and the income of farmers.But with the change of market environment at home and abroad,the system of collecting and storing is facing reform.In order to realize the smooth and excessive policy,the mode of "target price insurance futures" is to manage the price an effective tool for risk.Since 2016,Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has carried out a "insurance futures" pilot on cotton futures to effectively protect farmers' risks caused by the fluctuation of cotton prices.Agricultural income is related to output and price,and addressing unilateral risks can not achieve the highest effect of poverty alleviation.In the environment of agricultural marketization,the interaction of output and price brings more complex risks to farmers.The diversity and complexity of agricultural risks objectively require the establishment of a more comprehensive agricultural insurance poverty alleviation system.Agricultural income insurance can guarantee the minimum income of farmers and reduce the poverty caused by the double risk of agricultural production and price(Liu Feng,2018).Income risk is more insurable than yield risk and price risk because of the negative correlation between yield and price.hedge effect ",which is the inevitable of agricultural marketization at present.With income insurance,even if the worst-hit particles do not collect or increase production prices fall will not lead families into poverty.In recent years,Wendeng District of Shandong Province has actively explored agricultural income insurance,cooperated with Pacific property insurance,took "agricultural socialized management main body income insurance" as the entry point,actively explored and carried out wheat,corn and peanut income insurance products,effectively solved the risk of local agriculture "eating by heaven"and fluctuating crop prices,and effectively broadened the channels for farmers to increase their income steadily.Agricultural income is related to output and price,and addressing unilateral risks can not achieve the highest effect of poverty alleviation.In the environment of agricultural marketization,the interaction of output and price brings more complex risks to farmers.The diversity and complexity of agricultural risks objectively require the establishment of a more comprehensive agricultural insurance poverty alleviation system.Agricultural income insurance can guarantee the minimum income of farmersand reduce the poverty caused by the double risk of agricultural production and price(Liu Feng,2018).Income risk is more insurable than yield risk and price risk because of the negative correlation between yield and price.hedge effect ",which is the inevitable of agricultural marketization at present.With income insurance,even if the worst-hit particles do not collect or increase production prices fall will not lead families into poverty.In recent years,Wendeng District of Shandong Province has actively explored agricultural income insurance,cooperated with Pacific property insurance,took "agricultural socialized management main body income insurance" as the entry point,actively explored and carried out wheat,corn and peanut income insurance products,effectively solved the risk of local agriculture "eating by heaven"and fluctuating crop prices,and effectively broadened the channels for farmers to increase their income steadily.In the process of agricultural insurance poverty alleviation,the government encourages the development of innovative agricultural insurance poverty alleviation mechanism.Our country can absorb the poverty alleviation experience of French agricultural mutual insurance,which is of great significance to promote our country to overcome poverty.The original intention of French agricultural mutual insurance is to stabilize the income of farmers and prevent poverty caused by agricultural risks.The advantages of agricultural mutual insurance for poverty alleviation are: the farmers with economic damage after the disaster have the most basic living security;the farmers with mutual assistance face the same risks,and are familiar with their respective production conditions and risk conditions,thus reducing the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection behavior;and the poor farmers with mutual carry out technical exchanges with each other according to the theory of industrial economy,the mode of mutual aid among poor households can realize the concentration of factors of production such as land,labor force and capital.It can realize the scale effect,enhance the ability to resist risks and have the effect of reducing poverty.This paper analyzes the development context of agricultural insurance from the angle of agricultural risk,takes the prevention of natural risk-market risk-income risk as the main line,studies the application of corresponding agricultural insurance in poverty alleviation,the purpose is to use agricultural insurance mechanism to reduce the poverty caused by agricultural risk.Based on the development trend of our country's agricultural insurance toprotect the yield-price-insurance-income and the requirements of our country's poverty alleviation,the analysis framework of our country's agricultural insurance poverty alleviation is established,and the causes and mechanisms of crop risk are analyzed to clarify the influence ways of each major risk and degree of influence.Through the above analysis,with a view to providing a reference for China's agricultural insurance poverty alleviation system.In order to achieve the above-mentioned goals,this paper adopts the combination of comparative analysis,qualitative and quantitative analysis,and based on the research of the relevant literature and the theory of the pro-poor agricultural insurance,From the development trend of agriculture insurance in our country,we review and analyze the poverty situation and the pro-poor mechanism of our country.On the basis of this,the multi-equilibrium model is applied to analyze the specific factors and the degree of influence on the effect of poverty alleviation from the theory of optimization.The influence of price support policy on the decision of the area decision of the farmer's wheat is analyzed by the price fluctuation theory and the poor family behavior theory which are influenced by the supply and demand.Agricultural income insurance rate;the optimal allocation strategy of agricultural mutual aid insurance in the state of optimization.Based on the research results of domestic and foreign literature,this paper studies the application of agricultural insurance in poverty alleviation with the development trend of agricultural insurance.The research results are summarized as follows:The first chapter is the research background and research framework.The second chapter is the literature review and the relevant theory.The third chapter uses the comparative method to analyze the poverty alleviation effect of loan,insurance and "loan+insurance ".Build the multiple equilibrium poverty alleviation model of loan,insurance," loan +insurance ",carry on the accurate design to the product of poverty alleviation,through the bankruptcy probability obtained,combined with the net income distribution of the rural population in our country in 2012,compare the number of poor people under the loan,insurance," loan insurance ",and make an empirical study on the effect of poverty alleviation products.The analysis shows that:(1)commercial agricultural insurance without premium subsidy has no poverty alleviation effect.This is due to the fact that most poorfarmers do not have sufficient funds to purchase agricultural insurance,or When poor households buy agricultural insurance,they will reduce investment in agricultural production and thus reduce agricultural output.(2)On the one hand,because the agricultural production in our country is generally spring and autumn harvest,poor farmers start from obtaining loans,the process of obtaining income from the sowing of agriculture until the sale of agricultural products is completed takes a long time,and the loan time is short,which will make the agricultural results have to repay the loan before they have the market income,which cannot be timely or short-term unable to repay the loan.On the other hand,When the loan time is short,the poor people do not have enough time to study the new technology,the production conditions are not improved,and the loan will not give full play to the poverty alleviation effect;(3)"Loan+ insurance" has the effect of poverty alleviation,and the effect of individual loan poverty alleviation is better than that of "loan insurance" without premium subsidy.The fourth chapter analyzes the effect of interest subsidy and premium subsidy on poverty alleviation from the perspective of government subsidy of policy-oriented agricultural insurance by using multiple equilibrium model.Combined with the distribution of rural population in China in 2012,this paper compares the effect of subsidy on poverty alleviation through the bankruptcy probability and the number of poor people after premium subsidy and interest subsidy under the three modes of insurance,loan and "insurance loan".The analysis shows that:(1)the loan poverty alleviation with interest subsidy has the effect of poverty alleviation,and the larger the subsidy proportion is,the better the poverty alleviation effect is.(2)the agricultural insurance with premium subsidy has the effect of poverty alleviation,and the larger the subsidy proportion,the better the poverty alleviation effect;(3)the individual subsidy and double subsidy of interest and premium in “loan+insurance”have poverty alleviation effect,and the larger the subsidy proportion has the better poverty alleviation effect,the poverty alleviation effect under the double subsidy mechanism is due to the poverty alleviation effect of other ways.The fifth chapter,from the perspective of market risk,studies the poverty alleviation measures to transfer price risk.In recent years,agricultural products due to price fluctuations and appear "cheap hurt farmers ",many farmers fall into poverty.The price management policy(temporary storage system and "price insurance+futures")is introduced into the study of managing the price risk of agricultural products.On the one hand,quantitative measurement of the volatility of agricultural product prices,from the overall study of the impact of the storage system on the production of farmers;on the other hand,taking corn as an example,the operation mechanism of the "price insurance futures" model is expounded.The sixth chapter analyzes the scheme design of introducing agricultural income insurance in the process of poverty alleviation in China.(1)summing up the successful experience of the United States,the most mature country in the development of foreign agricultural insurance,based on the national conditions of our country and the demand of poor farmers for the double guarantee of output and price of agricultural products in the process of poverty alleviation,this paper puts forward the poverty alleviation model of agricultural income insurance;(2)the feasible scheme of agricultural income insurance in our country is designed.First of all,it analyzes the insurability and technical grip of agricultural income insurance in China;secondly,the current output insurance and price management policies in China.Finally,considering the most important rate determination process at the beginning of the implementation of agricultural income insurance,taking wheat,corn and rice as examples,the yield insurance and income insurance rates of these three crops are determined by ARIMA model and nonparametric nuclear density estimation,and the yield insurance and income insurance rates are compared.It is concluded that compared with the traditional output insurance,the scope of protection under the poverty alleviation of income insurance is broader and the rate is more affordable.The seventh chapter is based on the current agricultural poverty alleviation policy,combined with the successful management methods of agricultural risk at home and abroad,puts forward the innovative mechanism of agricultural insurance poverty alleviation in China-agricultural mutual insurance poverty alleviation.The necessity and feasibility of developing agricultural mutual insurance in china are put forward based on the most mature France and Japan models of agricultural mutual insurance,and based on belman equation,the paper proves that agricultural mutual insurance has the stability of poverty alleviation and savings,and designs the optimal asset allocation strategy in the dynamic game between the two sides.The eighth chapter is based on the previous chapter of the study,according to the development trend of agricultural insurance,the corresponding agricultural insurancepoverty alleviation research is summarized,and according to the put forward relevant policy recommendations. |
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