| China and United States are the second and the first largest economies in the world respectively,and the bilateral trade between them constitutes an important part of current GVC division system to a large extent.At present,with the increasing trade frictions and disputes between China and the United States,the bilateral economic and trade cooperation is difficult to carry out,and meanwhile,it also has a certain impact or increased difficulty on international division of labor and promotion of status in GVC of China's related industries.There is no denying that under the economic globalization,since joining the WTO,China by virtue of its own comparative advantages in rational allocation of resources,has gradually become an important participant in the division of labor and trade system in GVC,and has gradually developed into the world's largest trading powers,while its economy has achieved rapid development and also gained obvious benefits.However,with the deepening participation in GVC division and the increase of its foreign trade income,China is suffering more and more trade frictions or trade barriers from its trading partners in the global market,and compared with other trading partners,China suffers from high-frequency trade frictions or disputes with obvious protectionist nature from the United States and other countries is particularly obvious.Such as the new round of Sino-US trade friction,the Trump administration uses "huge trade deficit between China and the United States" as an excuse to severely attack or restrict China's related industries or products by imposing high tariffs or launching anti-dumping investigations and other trade policies,and even officially "stigmatize" China,such as"China threat","China is a currency manipulator","One Belt and One Road is China's Marshall Plan",and the current "source country of COVID-19",in order to intercept or attack China's related industries or products by various means.In detail,it can be found that the fundamental purpose of the series of trade policies or restrictive measures initiated by the United States to China is to restrict the development or upgrading of China's high-tech industry,directing at "Made in China 2025" plan,in order to limit the development of China's high-end technology industry and the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry,while maintaining its core interests or hegemony in the GVC from being threatened or shaken.Manufacturing industry as a pillar industry of China's national economy,under the background of intensifying Sino-U.S.bilateral trade frictions and the continuous development of anti-globalization trends,will its transformation and upgrading and rising status in GVC be affected by the U.S.trade policy towards China?How will it be affected?What is the specific impact mechanism or mechanism?And based on this situation,how to achieve its own rise to the high-end position in GVC?This series of problems are worthy of close attention and exploration.The economic development of any country is closely related to its foreign trade development,and the role of trade policy can not be ignored.Therefore,based on the reality of frequent bilateral trade frictions and disputes between China and the United States,this paper takes the U.S.trade policy towards China as the research perspective to explore its impact on China's manufacturing industry embedded in GVC division of labor,in order to seek feasible countermeasures or suggestions to timely resolve the passive situation of China's manufacturing industry in GVC,actively climb to the middle and high end of GVC,and how to better avoid or weaken the U.S.trade policy or barrier restrictions on China,and promote the normal bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States through the in-depth study of the U.S.trade policy towards China.Specifically,first of all,based on the analysis of the research background and significance of this paper,carrys out related literature combing,and defines the research theme and direction of this article while discovering the deficiencies and gaps in the existing research.Secondly,with the help of mathematical model,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of the U.S.trade policy on GVC division of China's manufacturing industry,and elaborates and analyzes the mechanism of the two,and puts forward relevant inferences and hypotheses to be studied.Thirdly,it analyzes the evolution of U.S.trade policy towards China and the status quo of international division of labor of Chinese manufacturing industry in GVC,and makes a preliminary judgment on the relationship between U.S.trade policy towards China and the status of GVC divisionof labor of Chinese manufacturing industry.Next,combined with theory and typical analysis,this paper focuses on the empirical study of the impact of U.S.trade policy towards China on the division status of GVC in China's manufacturing industry,and also explores the participation degree and international competitiveness of GVC simultaneously,mainly from the overall level,the mechanism level,etc.Additionally,this paper also makes an extensive study on the division of labor benefits of China's manufacturing industry in GVC from the perspective of U.S.trade policy towards China,deconstructs and analyzes the trade interests in GVC,and further tests the impact of U.S.trade policy towards China on GVC value-added capacity of China's manufacturing industry in combination with the decomposition results,and draws conclusions.Finally,based on the previous theoretical analysis and test results,this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions on how to realize the rising status of GVC division of labor,and actively avoid or weaken trade policy restrictions of China's manufacturing industry.In the theoretical analysis part,drawing on the ideas of transaction costs in Lorz and Wrede(2008)and the application of the DS model,combined with the reality or policy essence that the U.S.trade policy towards China will increase trade barriers or institutional barriers between China and the US to some extent,introduces trade barriers or institutional barriers into model to explore the impact of trade barriers or institutional barriers on factor flow and enterprise production status,and further draws on Antras and Gortari(2019),Antras(2013)GVC multi-stage production model to analyze the possible transaction cost"cumulative expansion effect" of the U.S.trade policy towards China under the GVC production division network,and its impact on international competitiveness,value-added gains,and status of the division of labor under the GVC production division network.In addition,combined with the fact that the US trade policy to China,such as anti-dumping,will increase the trade barriers between the two sides and the relevant research on the U.S.trade policy to China,it can find that the essence of the U.S.trade policy towards China is trade protectionism under the "legal" coat of WTO,which has obvious discrimination,it will have a direct"inhibition" effect on China's import and export trade,besides it will also have effects such as "linkage" and "stigmatization",Therefore,this paper mainly along the logic of "US trade policy towards China,namely trade policy restriction(barriers)-trade cost change-GVC division of labor" to explain the mechanism of action,specifically,the changes in trade costs caused by or brought about by the US trade policy to China will have an impact on Chinese manufacturing industry's embedding into the GVC division through four channels of "inhibitory metastatic effect","network chain effect","investment leap-over effect" and "stigmatization effect",and puts forward relevant inferences and research hypotheses here.In the reality interpretation part,firstly,by combing the evolution of the U.S.trade policy towards China in stages,it can find that since China's entry into WTO,the U.S.trade policy towards China is gradually changing from "complex" to"strategic",and motivation of the policy turn is closely related to the U.S.economic development strategy,interest group game,political election,social cognition,global political and economic situation,Sino-US bilateral relations and other factors in different periods;in addition,the tools of U.S.trade policy towards China has been gradually changing from a single mode to a variety of modes,and the field of trade policy sanctions is also gradually expanding.Secondly,based on typical facts about integration of Chinese manufacturing into GVC under the production decomposition model,it's found that China's manufacturing industry is more integrated into GVC through backward participation,and compared with United States and Japan,China's manufacturing industry has a larger participation in both backward and deep backward in GVC;during 2000-2017,the fluctuation trajectory of China's manufacturing GVC status is roughly in a "V" shape,and it has shown an obvious upward trend since 2012,however,compared with United States,United Kingdom,Japan and other manufacturing powers,the division of labor status of China's manufacturing industry in GVC is still relatively low,in the middle and lower reaches;for international competitiveness,China's manufacturing industry has relatively stronger international competitiveness compared with the United States,however,it seems that this kind of competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry is more reflected in low-tech manufacturing industries.However,the United States has shown stronger international competitiveness in high-tech manufacturing industries,but the competitiveness gap between the two countries in high-tech industries has been narrowing in recent years.Finally,combining the export decomposition model to deconstruct the trade gains in GVC,it's found that the value-added gains or profitability of Chinese manufacturing industry in GVC is relatively lower than that of United States,but it seems that the value-added gains of Chinese manufacturing industry in low technology category is higher than that of United States,while for high-tech category,especially high-tech manufacturing industry,China is significantly lower,however,in recent years,it find that the value-added income gap of bilateral value chain under this type is gradually decreasing.In the empirical test part,based on the characteristics of rational economic man of various economic entities in reality,considering that the purpose of industry actively carrying out international division of labor in GVC is mainly to achieve its rising status or to obtain more value-added benefits in GVC,therefore,on the one hand,this paper focuses on exploring the impact of the U.S.trade policy towards China on GVC status of China's manufacturing,and simultaneously examines the forward and backward participation and international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry in GVC;on the other hand it will conduct an expansive analysis and investigation on the value-added gains or capabilities of Chinese manufacturing in GVC from the perspective of U.S.trade policy towards China.It is expected to be based on the research context of forward and backward participation("Who do I produce for","Who produce for me"),international competitiveness("My competitiveness in GVC"),division of labor status("My status in GVC"),and value-added gains("My value-added ability in GVC")of Chinese manufacturing in GVC,to achieve a comprehensive and detailed exploration about the impact of U.S,trade policy towards China on the division of labor in China's manufacturing industry embedded in GVC.Firstly,on the whole level,it is found that U.S.trade policy towards China is not conducive to the upgrading of GVC division status of China's manufacturing industry,and this impact will show differences due to different trade policies towards China.Besides,the research finds that U.S.trade policy towards China has a certain inhibition on GVC forward and backward participation of Chinese manufacturing industry and enhancement of international competitiveness.Secondly,it find that U.S.trade policy towards China has a negative impact on upgrading of GVC division status of China's low-tech manufacturing industry,but has no significant impact on high-tech manufacturing industry.In addition,based on the inspection of the dynamic evolution of trade policy under the GVC division of labor,it is found that the US trade policy towards China has shown obvious dynamic complexity since China entered WTO.Then,using mediating effect model to test the mechanism,and it is found that the negative impact of U.S.trade policy towards China on China's manufacturing GVC status will be realized through "inhibitory metastatic effect","network chain effect",and "stigmatization effect".Finally,based on the moderating effect test,it finds that technological innovation,construction of"One Belt and One Road" and national institutional environment or institutional quality can significantly weaken the negative impact of U.S.trade policy towards China on the promotion of GVC division status of China's manufacturing industry.As for GVC value-added ability,the test shows that the U.S.trade policy towards China will be negative to the enhancement of the GVC value-added ability of China's manufacturing industry to a certain extent.In the countermeasures and suggestions part,although the U.S.trade policy towards China will have a certain negative impact on the integration of Chinese manufacturing into the GVC,it doesn't mean that China's manufacturing industry is difficult to achieve the goal of climbing to the middle and high end of the value chain.Through empirical testing,it can be found that China's manufacturing industry can actively leverage or utilize the specific competitive advantages derived from itself or at the national level,such as independent innovation,"One Belt and One Road"construction and so on to achieve a higher status in the value chain.Based on this,this paper provides practical countermeasures and suggestions on how to actively promote China's manufacturing industry to move up the middle and high end of GVC,improve its own competitiveness and avoid or weaken stigmatizing speech from the industrial and national levels.Specifically,it can be achieved by strengthening independent innovation,actively participating in the construction of "One Belt and One Road",making full use of specific competitive advantages derived from the home country's institutional environment,actively promoting trade liberalization,and strengthening bilateral exchanges between China and the US,etc.,to help China 's manufacturing industry to gain a higher status in the GVC division of labor... |
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