| Driven by the digital economy and information consumption,the scale of China's information service industry has grown steadily and entered a stage of steady and sound development.In 2019,the added value of information transmission,software and information technology services reached 3,269 billion yuan,an increase of 18.7 percent over the same period last year,accounting for 3.3 percent of the GDP.In 2020,its added value reached 3.821.4 billion yuan,with a year-on-year growth of 16.9%,accounting for 3.76%of GDP.Information service industry is the part of soft industry in the information industry,which is the intermediate industry connecting the information equipment manufacturing industry and the information users.With the continuous penetration of information technology in various departments of the national economy,the information service industry presents a trend of service networking,application platform,software service and industrial integration.It is of strategic significance to continuously improve the supply capacity of information service industry and continuously deepen the integration and development of information service industry with other industries for the optimization of traditional industrial structure,the improvement of efficiency and benefit,and the realization of high-quality development of national economy.In order to improve the supply level of information service industry and achieve the deep integration of the information service industry and other industries,the following questions need to be answered.First,what is the law of the development and evolution of the information service industry itself,including the evolution characteristics of the internal structure of the information service industry and the evolution characteristics of the supply and demand of the information service industry for other industries.Second,under the existing technological conditions in China,what role does the software assets,as an important part of the information service industry,play in the production process of the total or segmented industries?Has it become an equally important or even more important factor of production as labor and capital factors to participate in the production process and realize value appreciation?Thirdly,from the perspective of industrial association,whether the supply and consumption of information service industry are increasing.The fourth is how to seize the strategic opportunity of the rise and development of the new generation of information technology and become the main force of the development of digital economy under the new development pattern of the domestic cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles.In order to answer the above questions,this paper expands from the following five aspects.The first is to clarify the connotation and extension of information service industry and reveal its own characteristics of evolution and development.This paper firstly summarizes the relationship between the development of information technology and the continuous emergence of new forms of information service.During 2007 to 2018,the change trend of science and technology information service,manufacturing information service and consumer information service and the evolution characteristics of internal structure of information service industry,science and technology information service,production information service and consumer information service are studied.Second,from the perspective of input-output,this paper studies the evolution characteristics of forward correlation and backward correlation between the information service industry and the three industries as well as the subdivided sectors of the national economy from 2007 to 2018.When studying the supply and demand of information service industry to various sectors of the national economy,the distribution probability and bias coefficient of information service industry to the distribution and consumption of sub sectors are calculated.The Lorenz curves and Pareto curves of distribution and consumption are drawn to reveal that the change trend and characteristics of the distribution and consumption of information service industry to sub sectors.Through the construction of the complete consumption accumulation-complete supply curve,the paper analyzes the reasons for the difference in indirect distribution of subdivided sectors,that is,the reason for the difference between complete distribution and direct distribution of subdivided sectors.Through the construction of the complete allocation accumulation-complete consumption curve,the paper explores the reasons for the difference in indirect consumption of the subdivided sectors,that is,the reason for the difference between the complete consumption and the direct consumption of the subdivided sectors.Through industry sweep analysis,this paper reveals the driving force and influence evolution law of information service industry and its sub-industries to the development of national economy.Third,the software capital as an independent factor and the CES production function model of standardization of two-stage nested of labor-traditional capital-software three elements is constructed.The substitution relationship and respective contribution rate of software capital,traditional capital and labor elements in the total production function and the production function of subdivided departments are calculated under the current technical level in China.This paper tests whether there exists Granger causality between the growth rate of software capital stock in subdivided sectors and the growth rate of economic indicators in subdivided sectors,and takes the test result as the objective function to study the influence of the ratio of software capital stock in economic indicators on economic development.The new increased fixed assets series is measured during the period of 1995 to 2002 and statistical data of the new increased fixed assets series during the period of 2003 to 2017 are adopted in order to build the investment series from 1995 to 2017.The fixed capital stock of the total,three divisions and segment departments are measured.Both of the rationality of the estimation method and the accuracy of the estimation result are justified.The nonlinear iterative algorithm of local optimization,global optimization as well as the combination of local-global optimization are uesed to improve the accuracy of paremeters estimation.The effect of the proportion of software assets on the development is studied.The Grainger causal test reveals the relation among the growth rate of software assets,the growth rate of operating income,the growth rate of profit to income,the growth rate of profit to income ratio and the growth rate of added value of 539 companies.Subsequently,the data mining analysis has carried out to explore the impact of the proportion of software assets in the sub industry on the development.Fourth,guided by the theory of industrial correlation,this paper analyzes the change trend of the forward and backward driving effect of the three industries as well as subdivided departments on the information service industry.The proportion of the direct supply of the subdivided departments to the information service industry in the intermediate demand of the subdivided departments is calculated and the change of the proportion of the direct consumption of the subdivided departments to the intermediate supply of the subdivided departments is calculated.The trend reveals the development characteristics of the deepening integration of sub sectors and the information service industry as a whole.Fifth,the macro SAM of 2017 and its corresponding micro SAM of 39 sectors are compiled using the top-down method.After a detailed analysis of the current domestic and international situation,information services open CGE model guided by the theory of general equilibrium is constructed with labor factor,the traditional capital factor and software factor as the initial investment.The CGE model is used to predict the changes of GDP,the domestic market supply and demand,import and export,production factors demand,people's income,the enterprise income,government income and other indicators when the shock such as the renminbi depreciation of 2.59%,exports in(international commodity prices falling by 5%),capital or labor factor prices rising by 5%occurs.The impact of tax incentives or increased investment in information service industry on GDP,domestic market supply and demand,import and export,demand for factors of production,household income,enterprise income and government income are measured.The composite effects of economic environment changes and policy shocks on GDP and other indicators are measured.This paper explains the reasons for the change from the angle of economic operation.Discusses how to develop the information service industry and promote the high quality development of the national economy under the new development pattern.Both of price incentive mechanism and incomplete substitution relationship among factors are included in the CGE model to quantify the optimal behavior of each department within the scope of economic constraints.Through the simulation of the policy shock of the information service industry,the internal logic of information service industry promoting the development of national economy with high quality is explored,which provides data support and theoretical guidance for the policy making of information service industry.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the information service industry is the result of the continuous innovation and development of information technology,and it is also an important driving force for the continuous progress of information technology.There is an obvious interactive relationship between the progress of information technology and the emergence of new forms of information service.That is,the development of information technology accelerates the emergence of new forms of information service,while the extensive penetration of new forms of information service provides important support for the development of information technology and generates new demands for information technology.From 2007 to 2018,the total amount of information services based on science and technology,production and consumption showed a growing trend,and the Internet and related services showed a growing trend in the three forms of information services.The proportion of technology-based information service industry and production-oriented information service industry shows an overall increasing trend,and the internal structure is constantly optimizing.That is,the proportion of information transmission service gradually decreases,while the proportion of software and information technology service gradually increases.Compared with the technology-based information service and the production-oriented information service,the scale of China's consumption-oriented information service is relatively small and the consumption type is mainly information transmission service.Consumption-oriented information services are mainly provided to urban residents,while the consumption scale of rural residents is low.From 2007 to 2018,the proportion of urban residents' information service consumption fluctuated around 80%,while the proportion of rural residents' information consumption fluctuated around 20%.From 2007 to 2018,telecommunications,broadcasting and satellite transmission businesses are migrating to value-added services such as big data,cloud computing and the Internet of Things and the range of service formats relying on the new generation of information technologies is expanding.Second,from 2007 to 2018,the share of the tertiary industry in the total supply and consumption of the information service industry increased significantly.The indirect economic relationship between the information service industry and the secondary industry is closer.And the tertiary industry mainly with direct economic contact.The information service industry has the unequal distribution and the unequal consumption to the subdivision department and the unequal degree is gradually increasing.The information service industry has a very strong endogenous growth,and its direct consumption of itself has increased by about 5.5 times and total consumption by about 5.8 times from 2007 to 2018.Due to the existence of indirect distribution and indirect consumption,the inequality degree of direct distribution and direct consumption in information service industry is higher than that of complete distribution and complete consumption.The difference of indirect distribution of information service industry to subdivided sectors comes from the difference of total consumption accumulation of subdivided sectors,while the difference of indirect consumption of information service industry to subdivided sectors comes from the difference of total supply accumulation of subdivided sectors.Among the subdivisions of the information service industry,the information technology service and the information transmission service play a strong role in promoting the national economy,and they belong to the strongly restrictive sectors.Third,using the data of newly increased fixed assets from 1995 to 2002 constructed in this paper and the data of newly increased fixed assets from 2003 to 2017 released by national statistics as the investment sequence,the total capital stock of China during 1995 to 2017 is measured,and the estimation results are more reasonable and accurate.The software factor improves the elasticity of substitution among the factors in the production function of total and partial subdivided sectors,promotes the efficient and reasonable flow of factor resources,and plays the role of reducing cost and increasing efficiency.When software capital stock enters the total production function as an independent factor,the elasticity of substitution between labor factor and traditional capital factor,technical efficiency parameter and return to scale parameter all increase.When software elements and labor elements are combined,the contribution rate of labor elements will be increased.In the production process of subdivided sectors,with the continuous increase of the proportion of software assets,the substitution relationship between software elements,labor elements and traditional capital elements gradually evolves from an insignificant substitution relationship to a significant substitution relationship and the substitutability gradually increases.Among the 539 listed companies,the Granger causality between the growth rate of software assets and the growth rate of operating income and other economic indicators is as high as 82.2%,and the mutual Granger causality is as high as 40.1%.The results of data mining analysis show that the economic impact of software assets ratio of subdivided departments presents a "regression" characteristic.That is,if the ratio is high,there will be an upper limit of the ratio;if the ratio is low,there will be a lower limit of the ratio.Fourthly,the tertiary industry's direct consumption and distribution of information services are significantly higher than that of the secondary industry.As the indirect consumption effect of the secondary industry on the information service industry is stronger than that of the tertiary industry,the gap between the complete consumption of the tertiary industry and the complete consumption of the secondary industry on the information service industry is narrowing.The integration degree between subdivided departments and information service industry shows a deepening trend.Fifth,the depreciation of RMB promotes the export supply in the total domestic supply while restrains the import demand in the total domestic demand,and increases employment.However,it will cause the price rise and there is the risk of inflation.The decline of international commodity prices,to a certain extent,inhibits the export supply in the total domestic supply and promotes the import demand in the total domestic demand,leading to the increase of unemployment rate and the slowdown of economic development.The rise in the price of capital factors or the rise in the price of labor factors will increase the cost of production and then decrease the total domestic demand.Subdivision sectors show different trends because they are labor-intensive,capital-intensive and have different substitution relations among factors.Implementing tax preferential policies or increasing the investment in information service industry have positive effects on the national economy.In the implementation of tax incentive policies,the government will benefit information service enterprises,and then benefit industries with high consumption of information service,and finally promote the realization of the development of the entire national economy.When implementing the policy of increasing investment in the information service industry,it will drive the development of high-consumption enterprises in the information service industry by increasing the demand for the information service industry,and finally promote the realization of high-quality development of the entire national economy.When the price of labor factors rises or the price of capital factors rises,increasing the investment in information service industry can restrain or offset the negative effect on economy caused by the price rise of factors to a certain extent. |
PDF Full Text Request