| Exploring the mechanism of poverty formation and preventing and controlling return-to-poverty risk in the regionis not only the focus of work in the "new poverty alleviation era " after 2020,but also the basic guarantee for rural revitalization andcommon prosperity.Regional poverty is caused by a combination of multiple factors.A single indicator is difficult to fully characterize the poverty situation and has limited guidance.Recognizing regional absolute poverty and relative poverty from the multiple dimensions involved in poverty can identify the main causes of regional poverty and return-to-poverty,and reveal the reasons for regional backwardness and shortcomings in its development;studying the spatial-temporal structure of regional poverty is helpful to understand its situation,explore its geographical rules,analyze its formation mechanism,and then carry out the risk assessment of return-to-poverty and put forward the prevention and control countermeasures.Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area is one of the national concentrated contiguous destitute areas,and it is also an important education base for patriotism,revolutionary tradition and Yan'an spirit.Since the implementation of the national poverty alleviation and development plan,the economic and social development of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area has made historic progress,but the analysis of the causes of poverty and the prevention and control of return-to-povertyrisk are still issues that must be faced in the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.It is particularly necessary and urgent to continue to carry out research on multi-dimensional poverty in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area.In this paper,Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base areawas selected as the research area,and the multi-dimensional poverty in the region was taken as the research object.On the basis of summarizing the previous research results,the multi-dimensional poverty evaluation index system was constructed through index screening.Based on Marxist theory,sustainable development theory,poverty geography theory and other related theories,this paper used exploratory spatial data analysis method,geographical detector analysis method and other technical methods,with the comprehensive utilizes of multi-source data such as geographic information data,socio-economic statistics data and field survey data.Then the multi-dimensional absolute poverty index and multi-dimensional relative poverty index of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area in 1995,2005,2015 and 2018 were calculated from the three dimensions of nature,economy,and society,and the accuracy of the results was evaluated.On this basis,the spatial-temporal changes of multi-dimensional absolute poverty and multi-dimensional relative poverty andits formation mechanismare analyzed respectively.Finally,this paper attempted to construct the RRPN quantitative model of return-to-poverty risk assessment,calculated the risk coefficient of return-to-poverty of Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area,and put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the prevention and control of return-to-poverty risk.Through the research,this paper drewthe following conclusions:(1)Compared with a single-index evaluation method,a quantitative study of regional poverty from multi-dimensions,such as nature,society,and economy,is helpful to comprehensively understand the state of poverty and reveal the formation and change mechanism of poverty.Poverty is a complicated complex,which is the result of the comprehensive action of many factors.It can be divided into absolute poverty and relative poverty,as well as individual poverty and regional poverty.When conducting regional poverty research,we should fully consider the connections and differences between them.The practice shows that studying regional poverty from the perspective of multi-dimensional absolute poverty and multi-dimensional relative poverty at the same time is conducive to comprehensively understand regional poverty,to analyze its spatial-temporal changes and causesin depth,and to discover some problems and laws that are easy to be confused or difficult to find.(2)The overall degree of multi-dimensional absolute poverty in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base areawas obviously weakened,showing the change characteristics of "first concentration,then expansion,and then concentration" in spatial-temporal structure.From 1995 to 2018,the multi-dimensional absolute poverty index of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base areacontinued to decrease from 0.492 to 0.150,indicating that the degree of regional absolute poverty in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area had been significantly reduced under the attention of the party and the state,the cooperation of local governments at all levels,and the efforts of the people.This result is consistent with the general direction of poverty alleviation in the poverty-stricken counties in China.The distribution of absolute poverty pattern was unbalanced,andthe absolute poverty degree of Gansu and Ningxia was obviously higher than that of Shaanxi.(3)The overall degree of relative poverty in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area had also weakened,and the heterogeneity in spatial-temporal structure had gradually reduced.The variance of the relative poverty index in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area continued to decrease from 0.010 in 1995 to 0.005 in 2018.From the perspective of spatial pattern,the heterogeneity is further reduced and the spatial distribution of relatively poor counties(districts and cities)experienced the evolution process of"concentration-dispersion-concentration",and the overall degree of the eastern part was lower than that of the western region.From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity,it showed the spatial-temporal variation law of " not obvious stratification-stratification intensified-stratification equilibrium".All these indicated that the overall relative poverty level of counties(districts and cities)in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area had been weakened from 1995 to 2018.On the whole,the relative poverty index in the east was smaller than that in the west,and the internal difference ranges from insignificant differences in relative poverty,to gradual enlargement,and then to a trend toward equilibrium,indicating that the relative poverty problem was also alleviating.(4)Poverty in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area is formed by natural conditions as the leading factor and combined with economic and social conditions.The natural environment of the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area is fragile,the economic strength is generally low,and the foundation for social development is weak.In natural conditions,topography,land use and vegetation cover have a great impact on poverty;in economic conditions,per capita disposable income of rural residents and per capita disposable income of urban residents have a greater impact on poverty;in social conditions,the coverage of broadcast television and per capita medical resources and educational resources have a greater impact on poverty.In a word,some factors in these three conditions work together to cause poverty in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area,and the impact is far-reaching.(5)The return-to-poverty risk in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia old revolutionary base area was low as a whole,but there is a high risk of return-to-poverty in some areas.The overall risk coefficient of return-to-poverty was 15.7%.There were 36 counties(districts and cities)lower than the average value,and half of the counties(districts and cities)were located in low-risk areas(the risk coefficient of return-to-poverty is less than 15%).Therefore,the overall risk of return-to-poverty was low.However,internal differences exist in regions.According to the assessment results,there were 10 counties(districts and cities)in high-risk areas(Xunyi County,Kongtong District,Jingning County,Heshui County,Zhuanglang County,Huachi County,Haiyuan County,Huining County,Pengyang County,Zhengning County)in high-risk areas,and all of them have been poverty-stricken countiesand are to be lifted out of povertyrelatively late,so we should be vigilant.The innovation of this paper is to:(1)use the new method of quantitative research on regional multi-dimensional poverty,firstly attempt to quantitatively study regional multi-dimensional poverty from two aspects of absolute poverty and relative poverty,reveal the laws of spatial-temporal changes and formation mechanisms of these two types of poverty.(2)put forward a new concept of regionalmulti-dimensional poverty research results,adopt the national standard-evaluation index verification method,the result classification of the comprehensive evaluation model is determined by comparing the national poverty standard with the multi-index evaluation results,increase the accuracy of the model and provide a basis for subsequent related research;(3)construct a new quantitative model of regional return-to-poverty risk assessment,quantify the risk level by calculating the regional risk coefficient of return-to-poverty,make a risk level map to visually express the spatial distribution of the return-to-poverty risk. |
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