Coupling And Coordinated Development Of Industrialization-Urbanization-Agricultural Modernization And Its Spatial Effect In Yunnan Province

Regional diversified development is not only the objective reality of urban development,but also an important task of theoretical and empirical research on regional development."Pluralism"is usually expressed as"diversification",such as"three modernizations",that is,industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization.Accelerating the coordinated development of"three modernizations"is an inevitable requirement and basic path for underdeveloped areas to coordinate urban and rural development,explore regional advantages,narrow regional gaps and carry out modernization construction.It is important to implement the national strategy of poverty alleviation and building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way,and to plan sustainable economic and social development from a higher starting point significance.Based on the basic theory and research foundation of coordinated development of"three modernizations",this paper takes Yunnan Province as an example and follows the research paradigm of"time series spatial structure motivation mechanism",firstly,measures and analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern evolution of industrialization index,urbanization index,agricultural modernization index,comprehensive index of"three modernizations"and coordination index of"three modernizations"in Yunnan Province from 1999 to 2017.Among them,the time series analysis is carried out through the comprehensive development model of"three modernizations"and the coordinated development model of"three modernizations".The spatial analysis uses the method of Mann Kendall,Jenks and Getis-Ord^*,Standard Deviation Ellipse method(SDE).Secondly,Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis,Spatial Durbin Model(SDM)and Geographically Weighted Regression Model(GWR)are used to analyze the spatial effect of coordination index of"three modernizations"in Yunnan,and reveal the spatial differences of the influence degree and direction of different influencing factors on the cities(prefectures)in Yunnan.Finally,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of feedback and driving of industrialization and urbanization to agricultural modernization,cultivating and strengthening regional growth pole,transforming spillover effect as driving force,and combining with the main functional areas.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)the time series characteristics of sub index,comprehensive index and coordination index are significant.On the whole,the development level of"three modernizations"has been continuously improved,urbanization and industrialization have grown rapidly,and the coordination level of"three modernizations"has changed from moderate imbalance to mild imbalance;the development stages of each sub region are different,the level of central Yunnan is high,and other regions are concentrated in the middle and low sections;all cities(prefectures)have improved,and the average annual growth of cities(prefectures)with high development level and coordination degree is low.(2)The spatial differentiation and circle structure of sub index,comprehensive index and coordination index are significant.The"three modernizations"sub index takes central Yunnan as the high value area and the center of gravity,and is distributed in the east-west direction and migrates to the East,it is concentrated first and then dispersed in space;the high value areas and hot spots of"three modernizations"comprehensive index are distributed in Central Yunnan and Xishuangbanna,which are northeast by east to southwest by west,moving to the east by North,it is concentrated first and then dispersed in space;the high value areas of"three modernizations"coordination index are distributed in Central Yunnan,Southeast Yunnan,Southwest Yunnan and Western Yunnan.The central Yunnan,Honghe and Banna are the hot spots,and they are distributed in the northeast by southwest,and migrate to the south by East.In space,it is concentrated first and then dispersed in space.(3)The spatial effect of"three modernizations"coordination index is significant,and the influence factors of"three modernizations"coordination in different regions are different.The spatial autocorrelation and spillover effect of"three modernizations"coordination index are significant;the direct influence of economic development level and industrial structure on the coordination of"three modernizations"of the region itself is significant;the spillover effect of investment level and consumption level on the coordination of"three modernizations"of neighboring regions is significant;the changes of economic development level,industrial structure,consumption level,investment level and science and technology level have negative impact on the coordination of"three modernizations"of many cities(prefectures),while the changes of economic export-oriented degree,traffic location factors and natural factors have positive effects on the coordination of"three modernizations"of many cities(prefectures);consumption level,economic export-oriented degree,industrial structure,economic development level and investment level have great influence on the coordination of"three modernizations";in general,the regions with greater positive influence are central Yunnan,Dali and Xishuangbanna,and the regions with greater negative impact are Northwest Yunnan,most of Southwest Yunnan,Zhaotong and Wenshan,the spatial difference of the influence degree of each variable was significant.