| Public rental housing(hereinafter referred to as "public rental housing")is an important part of my country's housing security system.The large-scale promotion of public rental housing construction is an important measure taken by the party and the government to pay attention to housing security and improve people's livelihood,and has played an important role in alleviating the housing difficulties of low-and middle-income groups.With the continuous advancement of my country's new urbanization strategy,people's demand for housing is becoming more and more urgent.However,due to a variety of reasons for many years,housing prices in cities in my country have remained high,and there has been a serious disconnect between residents' actual income and housing consumption expenditures.In order to deal with the housing difficulties of low-and middle-income groups,the Chinese government has been building affordable housing,low-rent housing and other affordable housing since 1998.In 2010,it has vigorously promoted the construction of public rental housing.General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out at the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference that “we must attach great importance to the construction of affordable rental housing.” It can be seen that actively promoting the construction of public rental housing is of great significance to maintaining social stability and long-term development.However,in the process of public rental housing supply,traditional fiscal expenditures can no longer meet the capital needs of public rental housing construction.It is urgent to innovate the public rental housing supply model to solve the financing and management problems in the process of public rental housing supply.Since 2014,in order to deeply solve the problem of insufficient funds for public infrastructure supply and improve supply efficiency,with the strong support of a series of policies such as the Ministry of Finance [2014] No.76,the application of the PPP model in the field of public infrastructure in my country is in full swing.And has accumulated valuable practical experience in the fields of rail transit,sewage treatment,medical and environmental protection.Since 2015,under the joint promotion of six departments including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development,the application of the PPP model in the supply of public rental housing in my country has gradually entered the application stage,but compared with other fields,there is little experience,mainly due to PPP The complexity of the model has brought many difficulties and unknown risks to the operation of public rental housing projects.How to give full play to the advantages of the PPP model,realize reasonable risk sharing,and ensure the stable development of public rental housing projects is an urgent issue for all walks of life.Therefore,this article will take the public rental housing PPP project as the research object,analyze the applicability of introducing the PPP model into the field of public rental housing construction,and focus on a series of problems in public rental housing PPP project risk sharing,and realize the reasonable risk among the project participants.Sharing,achieving the goal of project value for money,provides theoretical and practical basis for the promotion and application of the PPP model in the supply of public rental housing in my country.Based on the analysis and sorting of relevant domestic and foreign literature and data,this paper uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis to conduct an in-depth study on the risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects.Comprehensive analysis of the connotation and framework of public rental housing PPP project risk sharing,focusing on how to formulate a reasonable public rental housing PPP project risk sharing plan.First,it analyzes the factors that affect the risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects,and analyzes the mechanism of influencing factors by constructing an ISM model,and then clarifies the relationship between the factors.Second,by building a risk sharing evaluation index system based on the satisfaction of participants,Use the TOPSIS model to evaluate the risk-sharing ability and willingness of the participants,clarify the risk-sharing subjects of each risk factor,and use the ANP-Shapley value method to determine the proportion of shared risks between the two parties for the risks that need to be shared by both parties.Defining,so as to formulate a public rental housing PPP project risk sharing plan with clearly defined powers and responsibilities.Finally,the actual public rental housing PPP project case in the project management database of the Ministry of Finance Government and Social Capital Cooperation Center is used to verify the risk sharing model,which reflects the effectiveness and scientific nature of the risk sharing model,and on this basis,it is used to promote my country's public housing Reasonable sharing of risks in renting PPP projects proposes solutions and relevant policy recommendations.According to the above ideas,this article is divided into the following seven parts:First,it explains the risk sharing theory of public rental housing PPP projects.First of all,the basic concepts and connotations of public rental housing,PPP,and public rental housing PPP projects are explained in a basic way.Secondly,it focuses on the basic theories related to the risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects,including public product theory,incomplete contract theory,risk management theory,stakeholder theory,and cooperative game theory,laying a theoretical foundation for the subsequent analysis.Finally,the applicability of the PPP model in the construction of public rental housing projects in my country is analyzed,including the current problems in the financing model of public rental housing projects in my country,the feasibility of applying the PPP model to public rental housing projects,and the advantages of applying the PPP model to public rental housing projects.Second,identify the risks of public rental housing PPP projects.The public rental housing PPP project has a complex structure and involves many risk factors.A comprehensive identification of the risks in the project is a prerequisite for risk sharing.Firstly,it analyzes the meaning,characteristics and classification of public rental housing PPP project risks,and then compares and analyzes several common risk identification methods.Through the comparison results,this paper finally chooses to use the checklist method and the expert survey method to analyze the public rental housing PPP The project carried out risk identification,and the results showed that my country's public rental housing PPP project has 44 risk factors including political risks,legal risks,financial risks,construction risks,operational risks,market and income risks,and other risks.Third,the risk sharing framework for public rental housing PPP projects has been determined.Firstly,based on the stakeholder theory,define the risk-sharing subjects of public rental housing PPP projects,and analyze the behavioral relationship between the risk-sharing subjects from five perspectives: concession agreement,shareholder agreement,loan contract,engineering contract,and insurance contract.Then,based on government documents and scholars' research,the connotation and principles of public rental housing PPP project risk sharing are summarized and summarized.Finally,according to the full life cycle theory of project risk management,the process of public rental housing PPP project risk sharing is explored,and the risk is shared.The process is divided into the preliminary sharing stage,the comprehensive sharing stage,and the tracking and re-sharing stage,which correspond to the feasibility study stage,bidding and negotiation stage,construction and operation stage of project management respectively,so as to realize the whole life cycle risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects.Fourth,it explores the hierarchical relationship and the mechanism of the influencing factors of risk sharing in public rental housing PPP projects.First,it analyzes the current situation and causes of the current risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects in my country,and found that the main reasons are the lack of fair and reasonable risk sharing awareness,the lack of PPP project risk sharing talents,and the lack of supporting risk sharing guarantee systems.Then,using the literature analysis method,the influencing factors of public rental housing PPP project risk sharing were initially identified,and risk tolerance,willingness to take risks,risk control capabilities,risk awareness capabilities,participants' understanding of the PPP model,and benefit distribution were obtained.,Project participation level,negotiation status,trust level,contract design,a total of ten risk-sharing factors.In order to improve the accuracy and scientificity of the influencing factors,a questionnaire was designed for the initially identified risk-sharing influencing factors,which were mainly distributed to professionals who understand the public rental housing and PPP fields.A total of 97 copies were issued,and 81 questionnaires were recovered,of which were valid.There are a total of 75 questionnaires,with an effective rate of 93%.Through the reliability and validity analysis of the returned questionnaire data,it is found that the questionnaire data has passed the reliability and validity test,and the data quality is good,indicating that the ten influencing factors identified through the literature analysis method have been recognized by the practical world and have a certain degree The science and accuracy.Finally,in order to explore the mechanism of influence of the above factors on the risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects,through the construction of the ISM model,the hierarchical relationship and mechanism of the factors affecting the risk sharing of public rental housing PPP projects are obtained,which is the construction of the risk sharing model and the promotion Policy recommendations on the reasonable sharing of risks in public rental housing PPP projects provide a basis.Fifth,a risk sharing model for public rental housing PPP projects has been constructed.In order to solve the problem of long negotiation time for risk sharing and unreasonable sharing of powers and responsibilities,first of all,in accordance with the principle of complying with the risk management capabilities and willingness of the participants,the risk perception ability,risk control ability,risk tolerance ability,and willingness to take risks of the participants Dimension to build a PPP project risk sharing evaluation index system based on the satisfaction of the participants.Then use the TOPSIS model to share the risk for the first time,and divide the risk factors into three categories: "Government and public sector commitment","Social capital commitment" and "Both parties' joint commitment." Thirdly,in view of the risk factors shared by both parties,based on cooperative game theory,the Shapley model is established,and the ten risk-sharing factors confirmed in Chapter 4 are introduced with the aid of the ANP model,and the original Shapley model is revised to overcome the shapley model.Therefore,the ANP-Shapley value method is used to determine the optimal share of risks among participants.Sixth,case analysis.In order to verify the validity and scientificity of the risk sharing empirical model constructed in the previous article,this paper selected a national demonstration project-the Fuji Garden Public Rental Housing PPP Project in Jiyuan City from the project management database of the Ministry of Finance Government and Social Capital Cooperation Center as a case.In-depth analysis.First introduced the background and content of the project,and then used the risk identification method described in Chapter 2 to identify the risks of the project.It was found that the risks of the Fuji Garden Public Rental Housing PPP project in Jiyuan City included political risks,legal risks,Financial risks,construction risks,operational risks,market and income risks,and other risks include 7 primary risks and 44 seed risks.Secondly,the expert survey method and the entropy method are used to empower the risk-sharing evaluation index system built in Chapter 5 based on the satisfaction of the participants,and the TOPSIS model is used to carry out the initial risk-sharing.The results show that government departments housing in Jiyuan City and urban and rural There are 15 types of risks independently assumed by the Construction Bureau,18 types of risks independently assumed by the social capital party(Jiyuan Jikang Asset Management Co.,Ltd.),and 11 types of risks shared by both parties.Finally,taking the low occupancy rate risk in the shared risk as an example,the ANP-Shapley model is used to determine the low occupancy rate risk sharing ratio.The result shows that the government department(Jiyuan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau)should bear 1.0772 million yuan,namely Take about 54% of the risk,and the social capital party(Jiyuan City Jikang Asset Management Co.,Ltd.)should bear 922,800 yuan,which is about 46% of the risk.In the same way,the distribution result of all shared risks has been obtained.Seventh,put forward policy recommendations to promote the rational sharing of risks in my country's public rental housing PPP projects.Combining the previous research results,we will strengthen the construction of legal and regulatory systems and standardize government behavior;establish a fair and reasonable cooperation mechanism to stimulate the enthusiasm of risk-sharing entities;strengthen the financial management of public rental housing PPP projects to prevent financial risks;strengthen the construction of talent organizations to improve Professional level of risk management;improve the risk management system,strengthen risk management and control capabilities,and put forward policy recommendations in five dimensions. |
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