| Throughout the evolution of human society,technological progress has always been an endogenous driving force for regional and national economic development,and an important means for countries to seize the high ground of international competition.In recent years,with the rapid development of Internet technology,the substantial increase in computer computing power and computing speed,and the great breakthroughs in the effectiveness of algorithms,artificial intelligence(AI)has made breakthroughs in the world.It quickly brought the human society into the intelligent age,accelerating the change in all aspects of human society's production and life.Based on this,countries around the world have launched a new round of competition around AI.The United States,Japan,Germany,France and other countries have successively promulgated a series of policies and measures to support the development of AI industry,with a view to taking advantage of AI to seize the dominant position in international competition in the new historical period.As far as China is concerned,AI,as a strategic technology leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,is receiving great attention from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during the ninth group study session of the Politburo on October31,2018,that China's new generation of AI should be promoted in a healthy manner.At the Central Economic Work Conference on December 21,2018,he once again emphasized the need to strengthen AI and other new infrastructure construction.In2019-2020,President Xi further emphasized the need to actively promote the in-depth integration of AI and media,education,social governance,and epidemic prevention and control.By then,China's AI and its deep integration with economic and social development have embarked on a new journey.As a kind of technological progress,AI is embodied in various tangible(robots)and intangible(algorithms,systems,etc.)technological innovations in the process of deep integration with the economy and society.So,how does AI affect economic growth? Through what channels does AI affect economic growth? Does the "Solow Paradox" exist? In the long run,will AI lead to exponential economic growth? From an international perspective,will the accelerated global penetration of AI further expand the North-South gap in the future?A series of issues are of considerable importance,but there is no systematic research yet,and there are even research gaps in some aspects.To this end,the thesis is based on economics,while combining multi-disciplinary theoretical knowledge such as computer science,Philosophy,and mathematics,and comprehensively uses a variety of research methods,such as historical analysis and comparative analysis,induction and deduction,theoretical research and empirical analysis,static analysis and dynamics,according to the "general-sub-general" structure to plan the layout of the paper,and focuses on research the mechanism of AI and economic growth.The main contents of this thesis are as follows:In the general part,based on systematically combing the relevant literature,elaborating the theoretical basis and clearly describing the typical facts of the relationship between AI and economic growth,this study explores four major economic effects of AI in the process of infiltrating the economy and society :intelligent penetration effect,boundary extension effect,knowledge production effect and self-deepening effect,and the three main factors(labor,capital and production technology)that affect economic growth are analyzed.On this basis,through the analysis of the four major economic effects of AI on economic growth by labor,capital and production technology,an overall analysis framework of AI affecting economic growth,consisting of labor channels,capital channels,and productivity channels,is proposed.In the sub-theory part,through theoretical and empirical analysis,the labor channels,capital channels and productivity channels through which AI affects economic growth are studied.In addition,given that data is not available,it is impossible to identify the impact of AI on long-term economic growth through empirical analysis.Therefore,based on the theoretical level,this research further explores the mechanism of the impact of AI on long-term economic growth and the future North-South gap.The conclusions mainly include four aspects.First,AI technology innovation can significantly promote economic growth,and there is even the possibility of exponential growth in long-term economic growth.As the most significant technological innovation in the new round of technological progress,similar to traditional technological innovation,AI can provide a source of power for regional and even national economic growth and significantly promote economic growth.However,unlike traditional technological innovation,AI can provide a stronger growth effect for the economy by realizing automated knowledge production.In the long run,if the advancement of intelligent automation technology coincides with the expansion of the new task boundary,the economy will achieve exponential growth.However,it is worth noting that the penetration and integration of AI and the economy and society will not be achieved overnight,but will go through the accumulation and adjustment process of the introduction phase,the expansion phase,and the maturity phase.Therefore,AI cannot positively promote economic growth from the very beginning.In the introduction stage of AI,it will have a negative effect on economic growth.AI has a "long-term connection between the contemporary and the future." After the accumulation and adjustment process of the introduction stage,the role of AI in promoting economic growth can be revealed.In the long run,the economy has the possibility of exponential growth,but it is also accompanied by the expansion of the North-South gap.Independent innovation is the key to narrowing the North-South gap in the future,and improving the efficiency of technology introduction in underdeveloped countries can only alleviate the growing trend of the North-South gap.Second,the development of AI is accompanied by the liberation of labor from mechanized,low-creative work and open mental work with established procedures.With the emergence of new jobs,the requirements for the quality and skills of the labor force are also constantly increasing,leading to an expansion of the demand for high-skilled labor and the rise of real wages,which in turn promotes high-quality economic growth.Labor is one of the important channels for AI technology innovation to promote economic growth.The labor channel mainly promotes economic growth through labor employment paths and labor income paths.From the labor employment path,AI can liberate labor from cumbersome work.At the same time,the requirements for labor of new jobs will be greatly increased,and labor employment will increase,thereby promoting economic growth.From the labor income path,AI can bring higher labor income levels,thus showing a significant positive effect on economic growth.At present,with the development of AI,the standardization of work tasks,the improvement of labor quality and skills,and the employment of intelligent penetration can all reduce the skills income gap.The skills income gap has not shown a trend of expansion,which will have a positive effect on economic growth.However,it cannot be ignored that the current penetration and integration of AI and economic society is still in the initial stage of expansion,and the expansion effect of border extension on the skills income gap has not been fully released,and there is still a potential risk of the skills income gap widening in the future.In addition,the penetration and integration of AI and the economy and society still have a certain degree of risks and challenges,especially in the introduction stage of artificial intelligence,which will cause intelligent machines to crowd out labor employment,reduce labor income levels,and increase income inequality,thereby inhibiting economic growth.Only after the adjustment and technology accumulation in the introduction stage,the economic growth effect of AI can really play a role.Third,the rapid penetration of AI in the economy and society will attract more capital accumulation,increase capital investment,improve capital production efficiency,thereby supporting macroeconomic growth.Capital is another channel for AI technology innovation to promote economic growth,and this channel mainly plays a role through the path of capital accumulation and the path of capital structure.In terms of the path of capital accumulation,in the introduction stage of AI,the increase of AI capital will squeeze out traditional capital.As the increased AI capital cannot make up for the squeezed out traditional capital,the total capital accumulation will decrease and inhibit economic growth.However,after the adjustment and technology accumulation in the introduction stage,AI can attract more capital investment and increase capital accumulation,and the growth rate is greater than the decline rate,and the overall capital accumulation is on the rise.As the largest developing country,China still has a lot of room for capital accumulation,and increasing capital accumulation can promote economic growth.From the perspective of the capital structure path,due to the characteristics of industry tasks,there are industry differences in the difficulty of AI penetration.As it is relatively easy to penetrate intelligently into product production departments,these departments will attract a large amount of AI capital and some traditional capital inflows,while it is difficult to penetrate intelligently into the service sector,and the new high-skilled jobs in this department will attract a large amount of traditional capital inflows.In the flow of the two types of capital,whether it is the product production sector that uses AI capital to replace labor,or the service sector uses AI capital to replace labor,the combination of traditional capital and high-skilled labor for production will increase capital production efficiency and promote economic growth.Fourth,the development of AI can break through the vicious circle of the "Solo Paradox",improve technical efficiency,and ultimately be reflected in the growth of total factor productivity(TFP),providing a source of strength for economic growth.Production efficiency is another channel for AI technology innovation to promote economic growth in addition to labor and capital,and this channel includes the path of technological progress and the path of technological efficiency.The empirical results demonstrate that the productivity channel mainly plays a role through the technological efficiency path,while the role of the technological progress path is not significant.Specifically,at this stage,the role of AI technology innovation in promoting technology dissemination and diffusion,scientific discovery and invention,and technological innovation and improvement is not significant,and it is difficult to achieve economic growth through the path of technological progress.However,technological progress can improve the compatibility of other factors of production,supplement or enhance traditional factors of production,bring about continuous reforms of micro-subjects management methods,social management methods,and economic and social organization operation modes,and improve the quality of factors and the efficiency of allocation,thereby driving economic growth.However,AI does not increase TFP from the very beginning,it also requires a process of adjustment and technology accumulation.In the introduction stage of AI,due to the existence of the "Solo Paradox",the role of technological progress in promoting economic growth is not obvious.However,as the application of AI in the industry gradually matures,the "Solo Paradox" will disappear,and total factor productivity will increase significantly,and the increase is greater than the previous decline,and economic growth will be achieved.Finally,the thesis is summarized,and policy recommendations on the development of AI in China are proposed.In addition,the possible innovations of this thesis are mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First,it analyzes the three channels through which AI affects economic growth in a multi-angle,comprehensive and systematic way,supplementing and expanding the research on AI and economic growth.Existing research on AI and economic growth often only points out the direction of the impact of AI on economic growth,but lacks mechanism analysis,or only studies the impact of AI on economic growth from a certain aspect,and lacks multi-perspective,comprehensive and systematic research.This article supplements and expands existing related research to a certain extent.Based on the typical facts of AI and economic growth,from the perspectives of labor,capital,and productivity,it analyzes the channels of AI affects economic growth comprehensively and systematically:(1)Labor channels.The development of AI is accompanied by the liberation of labor from mechanized,low-creative work and open mental work with established procedures.With the emergence of new jobs,the requirements for the quality and skills of the labor force are also constantly increasing,leading to an expansion of the demand for high-skilled labor and the rise of real wages,which in turn promotes high-quality economic growth.However,the development of AI will lead to skill premiums and exacerbate income inequality,which will inhibit economic growth.(2)Capital channels.AI can increase capital accumulation,bring AI capital and traditional capital to flow in the industry,improve capital production efficiency,and promote economic growth.(3)Productivity channels.The application of AI in the industry can improve the compatibility of other factors of production,supplement or enhance traditional factors of production,bring about continuous reform of the management methods of micro-subjects,the methods of social management,and the operation mode of economic and social organizations,and improve the quality of factors and allocation efficiency,thereby driving economic growth.Second,considering the stage differences of AI's impact on the economy and society,this research has theoretically and comprehensively understood the risks and opportunities of AI on the economy and society at different stages of penetration and integration.The penetration and integration of AI into the economy and society is not achieved overnight,but will go through a process from introduction to continuous maturity.Therefore,its effects on the economy and society will also have stage differences.Researches by Hémous & Olsen(2015)and Wang Jun et al.(2017)have noticed the impact of AI on labor employment and income disparity.However,it has not been paid attention to in other related researches on AI.Therefore,the existing research on AI and economic growth does not take into account the stage difference of AI's influence,and therefore ignores the adjustment process of AI's influence on the economy and society,and the adjustment process is often accompanied by risks and challenges.The lack of this consideration may lead to biased research conclusions.This paper introduces the stage difference of the impact of AI into the analysis process,analyzes the effect of AI on economic growth through the effect of labor,capital,and productivity at different stages of penetration and integration with economic and social,and clarifies the stage existence of risks and opportunities.To a certain extent,this is an important supplement to existing research on AI and economic growth.Third,starting from the industry level,a method to measure the development level of AI has been explored,which makes up for the lack of data selection in current AI-related research.Limited by the availability of relevant data,there are few domestic empirical studies on AI.Existing empirical studies mainly use industrial or manufacturing robot data for research,which cannot fully reflect the penetration of AI in the entire national economy.Correspondingly,the conclusions obtained are onesided.In this paper,the number of patent applications related to AI is used as a proxy variable to measure the level of AI development.Based on the definition of AI in this article,we use "artificial intelligence" "algorithms" "expert systems" and "robots" as keywords to search patent data in Patenthub's global patent database respectively.After removing duplicate data,we obtain the patent data of AI.Then,according to three levels,the patent data is classified into various industries of China.The first level: classification according to the main classification number of the International Patent Classification(IPC).The second level: the patent data that is difficult to be classified by the IPC number is classified according to the "Relationship Table of International Patent Classification and National Economic Industry Classification".The third level: the remaining patent data is divided by purpose.Finally,panel data on the absolute number of AI patents in 19 industries from 2003 to 2018 is formed.This data clearly reflects the penetration and impact of AI in different industries.Based on this,this research analyzes the economic effects of AI from the industry level,overcomes the insufficiency in the selection of AI agent variables in related research of AI and economic growth. |
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