Urban Economic Fluctuation And Economic Resilience ——A Study Based On Urban Economic Reality In Our Country

The research of economic fluctuation has a long history,and economic resilience is an emerging topic.It is a good attempt to analyze China's urban economy by linking them together.It has been observed that the growth rate of China's urban economy fluctuates greatly,which shows great differences in different periods and different regions.At the same time,it is generally believed that China's economy has shown full resilience,and China's national leaders have repeatedly mentioned that "China's economy has good resilience,sufficient potential and great room for maneuver." Then,how to understand the economic fluctuation and economic resilience of Chinese cities?Will economic fluctuations affect the resilience of cities,and what is the path of impact?Based on the reality of urban economic development in China,this paper tries to answer these questions by incorporating economic fluctuation and economic resilience into an analytical framework.The main purpose of this paper is to explain the process of economic fluctuations affecting urban economic resilience in the context of China's economy,so as to find ways to reduce urban fluctuations and improve economic resilience.The fluctuation of urban economy refers to the change of the main economic index of a city.Urban economic resilience refers to the ability of the economic system to withstand shocks and adjust itself to restore the original growth path and create new growth path.Economic fluctuation is the result of various economic shocks acting on the economic system,and is the external manifestation of the economic operation state.According to the existing literature,economic shock can be divided into "immediate shock or slow-burn challenge".These two shocks ultimately show up as fluctuations in supply-side and demand-side economic data.Economic fluctuations cause changes in the internal structure and growth momentum of the urban economic system,and affect the long-term growth path of the urban economy,thereby changing the resilience of the urban economy.This is the main path through which economic fluctuations affect the resilience of the city's economy,and it is also the main logical framework for the analysis of the problem in this article.In this paper,the following specific research is carried out:the degree of economic fluctuation of Chinese cities is graded by clustering analysis method,and the economic sensitivity index of measuring urban economic resilience is constructed to measure the economic resilience of major Chinese cities.Use econometric methods to find significant factors that affect urban economic fluctuations from the supply side and the demand side.Analyze the changes in the economic structure and the adjustment of growth momentum reflected by these significant factors from the micro level,and then analyze the economic resilience effects of these changes.Correlation coefficients,econometric analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods are used to test the hypothesis that there is a negative correlation between economic fluctuations and economic resilience in my country's cities.This article also analyzes the process in which urban economic fluctuations caused by several typical slow-burn challenges.The empirical analysis of this article has got some concrete research conclusions.The analysis of the current situation of urban economic fluctuations and economic resilience in my country found that the degree of economic fluctuations in major cities is smaller than that of other prefecture-level cities;the economic fluctuations of the northern resource-based cities are greater than that of the southern resource-based cities.Urban economic fluctuations in China have strong positive spatial autocorrelation.Urban economic resilience as a whole show that large cities are better than small and medium-sized cities,coastal cities are better than most inland cities,and southern cities are better than northern cities.The economic resilience of resource-based cities is relatively fragile.In the empirical part,the following conclusions are found:consumption,scientific and technological innovation,and young and middle-aged population restrain urban economic fluctuations;Investment,foreign trade,and secondary industries increase fluctuations in the city's economy.The influence of demand structure on urban economic fluctuation in different time periods shows that the rotation of "investment-foreign tradeconsumption" plays a leading role.Regionally,the pattern of "foreign trade,consumption and investment" plays a leading role from east to west.The demand structure of cities in eastern China is gradually moving towards equilibrium.The change of urban demand structure in western China gradually intensifies,so we need to pay attention to the influence of investment factors.The economic fluctuation of cities in the central region is in the middle,and the importance of foreign trade to its economic growth is increasing.The economic fluctuation of northeast cities is relatively high,so it is necessary to cultivate economic growth points.Then,from the micro level,it analyzes the changes in the internal structure and growth momentum shown by the significant influencing factors of urban economic fluctuations.This change indicates that my country's urban economy has gradually shifted from an investment-driven,foreign trade-driven type to a consumer demand-based type,and a shift from traditional factor-driven development to innovation-driven development.This is conducive to improving the overall economic resilience of our cities.In the context of medium and high-speed growth,this paper confirms that there is a trend relationship between small urban economic fluctuations,good economic resilience,and large economic fluctuations,poor economic resilience.It is also found that urban economic resilience has strong inertia,and it takes time to improve urban economic resilience.To evaluate the overall economic resilience of 15 sub-provincial cities in my country from 2015 to 2018,the ranking is:Shenzhen>Guangzhou>Hangzhou>Nanjing>Qingdao>Xiamen>Ningbo>Wuhan>Chengdu>Xi'an>Jinan>Changchun>Dalian>Harbin>Shenyang.The rankings show that the coast is higher than the inland,and the south is higher than the north.The rankings of Northeast cities are generally low.This paper also analyzes the impact process of economic volatility on urban economic resilience caused by three slow-burn challenges:the position of urban industry in the entire industrial chain is replaced,the spatial effect between cities,and the change of urban location.It is proposed that the benign interaction between the adjustment of economic structure,the enhancement of innovation ability,and the transformation of development mode is the path to promote the transformation of urban economic fluctuations to the direction of economic resilience.Based on theoretical analysis and research conclusions,this paper proposes policy recommendations for reducing urban economic fluctuations and enhancing urban economic resilience from three different time levels:short-term,medium-term,and long-term.