Research On The Balance And Security Of Chinese Rice Productivity Based On Model

Rice is the largest consumption ration in China.Predicting the future supply and demand banlance of rice in China is related to the formulation of Chinese food security and macroeconomic development policies.Therefore,based on the cluster analysis method,this study analyzed the rice consumption after the changes of rice consumption preferences in urban and rural residents across the whole country and provinces.From the perspective of dietary nutrition standards on rice demand,the ideal demand of rice in China under the changes of population and population structure was studied.According to the type of rice planting,the amount of rice seed used per unit area and the scenarios of rice planting area,the future rice seed comsumption in China was predicted.Referring to the former parameters of rice undustrial and feed consumption models,and combining with the changes of agricultural product indeces price in recent years,the future industry and feed consumption of rice in China was forecasted.Then,based on the above results,the fiiture total consumption demand of rice in China was detected.Moreover,based on the rice growth models,the future potential yield of rice in China was simulated under climate change condition.Then based on the poteitial and historical rice yield,the future rice yield in China and the main rice production region were calculated.Finally,based on the results of rice consumption demand and suppliment,the future national and provincial rice food security conditions were analyzed by the rice area of food safety and food rations ullage.The specific results are as follows:(1)The difference of rice per capita consumption among the provinces was narrowing.The per capita annual rice consumption of rural households in the country will be 80.74 kg in 2020 and drop to 68.03 kg in 2030,and the urban per capita annual rice consumption will be stabilized at 42 kg.In general,under the same rice consumption preferences in the future,the average per capita rice ration demand in China will decline slightly,and will be stabilized at 68.94-70.14 kg/person/year in the future.By 2030,China should ensure at least l40 million tons of rice for food consumption.However,if the rice consumption preference changed in the future,China needs to ensure at least 86.26-98.41 million tons of rice for food consumption.In addition,the potential rice seed consumption in Chian will reach 1.77 million tons by 2020,1.89 million tons by 2025,and 2.07 million tons by 2030,respectively.The rice consumption for feed and industry will change at a rate of-2.53%per year and 2.03%per year between 2020 and 2030.By 2030,the rice consumption for feed and industrial will reach 14.10 million tons and 24.59 million,respectively.In summary,the total rice consumption in China will gradually decrease in the future,the absolute rice consumption rations will continue to decline with the change in rice consumption preferences,and the amount and proportion of rice feed consumption will also decrease,while the rice seed and industial consumption will increasein the future.(2)Under the future climate condition,the potential yield of rice in China is gradually decreasing from the southeast to the northwest.The highest poteintial yield was found in Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian and southerm Zhejiang,and the lowest potential rice yield was found in Guizhou,Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning.Based on the potential rice planting area,by 2020,2025 and 2030,the potential total rice yield in the main rice production region(16 provinces)will reach 407 million tons,370 million tons and 348 million tons,respectively.While based on the trend planting area,the poteial total rice yield will be 396 million tons,379 million tons and 369 million tons,respectively in the main rice production region of China.(3)According to the total rice demand and self-supply condition in the future,by 2020,2025 and 2030,the rice production surplus of China sould be stabilized at 0.50-0.80 million tons,0.58-0.61 million tons,and 0.57-0.68 million,respectively.The total rice production in the China can meet the demand of rice consumption basically.In addition,the regional differences of rice consumption are gradually decreasing,and the non rice productivity provinces in the north will become the main rice consumptionregion.In general,in the future,rice supply in China can meet the consumer demand,but there is an imbalance between supply and demand in regions,for example,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Shandong,Henan,Guangdong,Tibet,Shaanxi,Gansu and Xinjiang will exist the demand gap in the future.Overall,our results will provide the theoretical and data support for the formulation of safety and adaptability measures for rice production in China in the future,which is of great significance for ensuring the food safety in the future of China in China.