| With the introduction of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,transportation,as the third largest emitting industry in China,will face increasingly severe emission reduction challenges,while road transport is the main source of emissions in the transportation industry,which also needs to accelerate the low-carbon development process.By the end of 2021,new energy vehicles(NEVs)accounted for only 2.6%of the nation’s 395 million motor vehicles,and there is still a long way to go to promote road transport emission reduction by promoting its market proliferation in the future.Since the implementation of the purchase subsidy policy,NEVs have developed rapidly under its incentive.But after the subsidies are withdrawn in 2023,the penetration process of NEVs will slow down,and proposing a more reasonable and effective incentive policy for NEVs in the future could be a powerful impetus to the road transport emission reduction process.Carbon trading on the consumption side can act directly on the emission side of road transport,and some studies have confirmed its effectiveness in promoting the substitution of NEVs for fuel vehicles(FVs).But at present,there are fewer pilot experiences and research theories on this policy system,especially the lack of systematic research,which is not enough to support its widespread practice.Therefore,this thesis focuses on how the carbon trading mechanism is applied to urban road transport sector,integrates the relevant modeling methods in the field of management science to deeply explore the decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism under different objectives,and simulates the development of urban road transport sector under the application of carbon trading.The urban road transport sector consists of private vehicles and public transportation vehicles within the city administrative areas,and the latter includes buses,taxis and logistics vehicles.The main research work is as follows.(1)The basic framework for the application of carbon trading in urban road transport sector is established.Firstly,the implementation objects and the overall trading process of carbon trading in urban road transport sector are proposed.Secondly,based on the practical experience of the national carbon market and the pilot experiences of transportation enterprises participating in carbon trading in Shanghai,Shenzhen and Beijing,the total quota setting and initial carbon quota allocation method for urban road transport sector are determined.Further,with reference to the"Beijing Low Carbon Travel Methodology",a common emission factor determination method for private vehicles,buses,taxis and logistics vehicles by energy type is proposed.Finally,the application of blockchain technology for the management of urban road transport carbon trading platform is prospected based on the existing research,which can solve the bottleneck problem of many trading subjects and huge data scale on the platform,and this basic framework lays the foundation for the subsequent model construction.(2)The decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism based on private vehicle purchase strategies is constructed by using Stackelberg game.Considering the one-time completion feature of private vehicle purchase decision,the Stackelberg game model between government-automaker-consumer is established with the assumption of perfect rationality.Further,the game model is solved to obtain the equilibrium strategy of each subject,i.e.,the government’s optimal carbon price and initial carbon quota decision-making results under the optimal decisions of consumers and automaker.Finally,the results of the equilibrium strategy are empirically analyzed with the actual data of Beijing’s road transport.The results show that the carbon price under the equilibrium strategy is 0.382 RMB/kg,the initial carbon quota is 3430kg,and the market demand rates of electric vehicles(EVs)and FVs are 59.6%and 40.4%,and carbon trading has a good incentive effect on private vehicle owners to choose EVs.Subsequently,it also discusses the influence of three factors,namely,the consumer vehicle price sensitivity,EV production costs,and fuel prices,on the equilibrium strategy and vehicle market.And further propose policy recommendations related to the application of carbon trading in private vehicle sector,which provides model and theoretical references for each subject’s decision after private vehicle owners participate in carbon trading.(3)The decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism based on the replacement strategies of public transportation vehicles is constructed by using evolutionary game theory.Considering the "fraudulent" behavior of the operator and the multiple iterations of the operator’s replacement decision,the evolutionary game model between the government and the operator is established with the assumption of limited rationality to obtain the evolutionary stable strategy.Further calculations are made to obtain the optimal carbon price and the initial carbon quota under the operator’s strategy of choosing a NEV.Finally,taking buses as an example,empirical analysis of the optimal decision-making and evolutionary stable strategy of carbon trading mechanism is conducted based on the actual data of Beijing’s road transport.The results show that the optimal carbon price and initial carbon quota in this case are 0.453 RMB/kg and 45080kg,respectively,and the final decision of the government and the operator will tend to the most ideal state,when the incentive effect of carbon trading mechanism for EVs is most significant.Subsequently,the effects of four factors,namely,carbon quota prices,initial carbon quotas,total vehicle costs and government regulation,on the decision-making results and vehicle market are also discussed.And further propose policy recommendations related to the application of carbon trading in public transportation vehicle sector,which provides model and theoretical references for the decision-making of each subject after the operators participate in carbon trading.(4)A decision-making optimization model for the carbon trading mechanism based on the emission reduction target of urban road transport sector is established by considering private vehicles and public transportation vehicles.Firstly,the overall process of the optimization model is determined by analyzing the conduction relationship of relevant variables between carbon price and quota supply and demand in the carbon trading market.Secondly,with the goal of minimizing the emissions of new addded vehicles in urban road transport sector,the decision-making optimization model of carbon trading mechanism with carbon price endogenous is established by considering the dynamic relationship between carbon price and quota supply and demand.Finally,the optimization results are compared and analyzed with the results of the preceding model by combining the actual data of Beijing’s road transport,and the results show that carbon trading under the optimal emission reduction target has a significant incentive effect on the adoption of EVs for public transportation vehicles,but a limited effect on private vehicles.Based on the mandatory replacement of public transportation vehicles,the decrease in the purchase cost of EVs,and the fluctuation of oil prices,various scenarios are set up to compare and discuss the effects of the above factors on the optimization results and the vehicle market,so as to provide model and theoretical references for the government to seek for the carbon trading application strategy under the optimal emission reduction.(5)A system dynamics model of urban road transport development under the application of carbon trading is constructed and long-term multi-scenario simulations are conducted.Based on the variable relationships in the constructed decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism,the dynamic relationship between carbon price and quota supply and demand is endogenized,and the system dynamics model of urban road transport development under carbon trading application is constructed with private vehicles,buses,taxis and logistics vehicles as the main subjects,which consists of four subsystems:cost,vehicle market,carbon trading market and carbon emission.Eight scenarios are obtained by combining different emission reduction strengths,R&D inputs and renewable energy penetration levels at different scales,and the longterm development trends of the EV market and emission are discussed under the above scenarios.It provides model and theoretical references for the government to formulate the development path of urban road transport emission reduction under carbon trading.The results show that EV market diffusion is most effective under high emission reduction effort and high R&D investment,and least effective under low emission reduction effort,low R&D investment and high renewable energy penetration level.R&D investment of EVs has the greatest impact on its adoption rate,followed by emission reduction effort and renewable energy penetration level is the smallest.Through the elaboration of the main research work and findings,the innovations of this thesis can be summarized as follows:the decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism based on the purchase strategies of private vehicles is established by considering the interaction of multiple subjects.The decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism based on the replacement strategies of public transportation vehicles is established by considering the limited rationality of the operator’ s decisionmaking.The decision-making optimization model of carbon trading mechanism based on the optimal objective of the overall emission reduction of urban road transport sector is established by considering the dynamic relationship between carbon price and the quota supply and demand.A multi-scenario simulation of the long-term development of EV market in urban road transport sector under carbon trading is conducted based on the system dynamics model.The systematic research within the decision-making model of carbon trading mechanism,carbon trading application strategy and the subsequent simulation expands the boundaries of research related to the application of carbon trading in the field of urban road transport,provides a solid theoretical basis for its smooth practice,which will also help the realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in transportation industry. |
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