Research On Process Risk Assessment And Decision-making Of Ship Navigation In Arctic Waters

As a link connecting North America,East Asia and Western Europe,the Polar Silk Road has greatly shortened the transportation distance from eastern Asia to western Europe and eastern North America.With the sea ice decreases in Arctic waters,more and more ships try to use the Arctic route.However,compared to ordinary waters,the Arctic waters are affected by natural characteristics such as high latitudes,low temperatures and sea ice,and the navigation environment conditions are relatively harsh.This makes ships and their crew face more severe safety challenges.How to achieve safer and more efficient ship navigation in Arctic waters has become a hot issue in the field of marine transportation.In view of the safety of ship navigation in Arctic waters,conduct research on ship navigation assistance decision-making in Arctic waters from the perspective of risk management and control,propose a standard paradigm for risk-causing mechanism under factor correlation effects,and construct a dynamic Bayesian process risk assessment model based on the analysis of ship navigation risk factors in Arctic waters,and use the multi-source information fusion method to realize the risk evolution simulation of the ship’s navigation in the Arctic waters.Considering the shortest voyage based on the avoidance of high-risk waters as the basis for the ship’s navigation decision in the Arctic waters,a method of decision-making assistance for ship navigation is proposed.According to the proposed method of ship navigation risk decisionmaking in the Arctic waters,a ship navigation risk decision-making system in the Arctic waters is established,which is applied to guide the ship’s navigation practice in the Arctic waters.The main study content of this paper is carried out from the following aspects.The main research content and innovative results obtained in this study include the following aspects.(1)Clarified the mechanism of ship traffic accident risk formation under the correlation effect of risk factors.Aiming at the cumulative impact of risk factors on ship navigation risks in the time(space)sequence,the correlation effect of the causal factors of ship navigation risks is proposed.Based on the establishment of the basic form of risk factor correlation effect,the quantified analysis of ship navigation risks caused by risk factors correlation effects reveals the causal mechanism of ship navigation risks under risk factors correlation effects.(2)Constructed a quantitative analysis method for the risk of the ship’s navigation process under the correlation effect of risk factors.By analyzing the key forms of the cause of ship traffic accident risk under the correlation effect,the Bayesian network structure is used to objectively reflect the correlation between the risk factors,and the Markov chain model is used to characterize the dynamic correlation of the risk factor status.Based on this,the mathematical theoretical basis for the correlation effect of risk factors is established.By introducing the Markov chain model into the Bayesian network structure,a dynamic Bayesian network process risk assessment method is constructed to realize the quantitative analysis of the ship navigation process risk.(3)Revealed the evolutionary law of ship navigation risk in Arctic waters under uncertainty information.In terms of the research on the evolution of ship’ navigation risks in Arctic waters,objectively analyze the ship navigation risk factors in Arctic waters from the perspective of system theory,and establish a process risk assessment model for ship navigation in Arctic waters under the correlation effect of risk factors.In response to the demand for objective discrete data of dynamic risk factors in the model,an uncertainty analysis method that combines the evidence theory and cloud model to transform subjective data into objective dynamic discrete data is proposed to realize the quantitative analysis of the risk evolution of ship navigation in Arctic waters.(4)Realized the auxiliary decision-making for ship navigation in Arctic waters under risk management and control.Based on graphics,the uncertain risk information of ship navigation in Arctic waters is visualized,considering that ship is concerned about safe and efficient navigation in Arctic waters,and the shortest voyage in avoiding high-risk waters is the basis for decision-making,an auxiliary decision-making method for ship navigation in Arctic waters is established based on the A-star algorithm to realize the navigation path planning of ships in Arctic waters.The design and application of risk decision-making system for ship navigation in Arctic waters.