The Study Of Maritime Risk Management Decision-making Evaluation Method Based On Promethee Theory

Over the years, in order to ensure the safety of marine traffic, the world has made a lot of efforts, and experts in related fields did endless studies in the hope to control the frequency or severity of accidents at sea through effective maritime risk management. In this process, it generally results in a series of risk control programs for the choices and decisions of risk managers.In order to provide technical support to risk managers in the decision-making, to enable them to select better and better program, this paper reference to the research in the field of domestic and international risk management decision-making and analysis currently used in several decision-making method, and proposal the risk management decision-making model based on the method of PROMETHEE.The primary coverage of this paper:(1) This paper shows vividly the meaning and content of safety management, risk assessment, risk management decision and some related material, which provides the theoretical foundation for the ocean risk management decision.(2) It applies multi-attribute decision-making model into this field combined with the characters of ocean risk and the objectives of decision. And at the same time, it illustrates some commonly-used multi-attribute decision-making models and the parts related to these models of FSA(Formal Safety Assessment, FSA), also the pros and cons have been analyzed so that the problems are pointed out, bringing up the PROMETHEE decision-making theory.(3) It constructs the multi-attribute decision-making model which depends on PROMETHEE theory. With deep considering the objectivity of weight and using the way combined with the mark from subjective AHP experts and the objective entropy weight, it provides experience factors sot that decision-makers are able to adjust the proportion of two weight according to self-preference.(4) Taking the statistics from the cases of FSA as the example, this paper inspects and verifies the model through different principles, then other cases are compared with it. The results of sort, which are irrational, have been analyzed. At the end, the application of this model into the ocean risk management decision-making field has been proved.