| Transportation is the basis of economic and social development.Strengthening the coordination between comprehensive transportation modes and promoting the integrated development of comprehensive transportation are important measures to build a modern highquality comprehensive transportation network and promote economic and social development.With the development of comprehensive transportation,the tasks undertaken by different transportation modes are more detailed.As the main skeleton and main corridor of the highway network,the trunk highway is the link connecting important towns and other transportation networks,realizing the conversion between different transportation modes.This paper focuses on the supply performance of comprehensive transportation and carries out research on the traffic demand prediction and layout methods of trunk highway under the background of comprehensive transportation.This paper aims to accelerate the coordinated development of trunk highway network with economic,society and other transportation modes,provide a theoretical basis for the traffic demand prediction,planning and construction of trunk highway network and effect evaluation and promote the development and construction of trunk highway network with a target and give full play to the coupling efficiency under the background of comprehensive transportation.By explaining the connotation,characteristics and influencing factors of the comprehensive transportation system,this paper analyzes the characteristics of the comprehensive transportation modes,and probes into the influence of the economic and social connection intensity of different regions on the comprehensive transportation demand.By establishing a comprehensive economic development index and improving the traditional gravity model for calculating the potential energy of regional economic connection,a calculation model of economic connection is established based on the comprehensive transportation system.This paper probes into the correlation between passenger and freight transportation volume and influencing factors of different transportation modes,such as highway,railway and airway,and puts forward a regional comprehensive traffic generation prediction model based on economic connection potential energy,combining the influence of economic connection potential energy on comprehensive traffic generation and analyzing the existing comprehensive traffic generation prediction methods.Considering the respective characteristics and advantages of the comprehensive transportation modes,based on the generalized cost theory,the advantage distance models of the passenger and freight comprehensive transportation network are respectively constructed.The Nested-Logit model is introduced to build the model of passenger transportation mode advantage distance in the integrated transportation network;Considering the characteristics of the goods and the shipper’s sensitivity to the price,the freight categories are divided.For different types,correction coefficients are proposed to modify the generalized cost function,and an advantage distance model of freight transportation mode based on Influ Logit is established.Based on the Lotka Volterra model,which is used to describe the relationship between predators and preys in ecology,an analysis model of the competition and cooperation relationship of comprehensive transportation modes is constructed.Finally,a parameter solution algorithm based on the grey system model and the distinguishing method of competition and cooperation relationship between transportation modes is proposed.Combined with the respective characteristics of comprehensive transportation modes,a standard passenger and freight transportation unit based on "person time" and "ton" is proposed,which solves the problem that the traffic statistical caliber and unit of different transportation modes are not unified.A "point line" hub node transformation method is proposed,which integrates the subnetworks of different transportation modes such as highway,railway,aviation and water transportation,and constructs a comprehensive transportation network model that can reflect the transfer relationship between different transportation modes.Considering travel economic cost,travel time,maximum travel recovery time,comfort and other factors,the impedance model of different transportation modes under the background of comprehensive transportation network is constructed.The maximum capacity of sections of different transportation modes under the background of comprehensive transportation is calibrated using parameters such as rated passenger carrying capacity,number of goods carrying capacity and number of departures per unit time.Three indicators of traffic demand,node comprehensive traffic index and development potential are selected to improve the node importance calculation model,build the route demand model with two indicators of attraction between nodes and comprehensive transport corridor service level,establish the fully connected network improved Floyd algorithm,and obtain the sampled trunk highway network.Establish a trunk highway layout model that integrates the advantageous transportation distance,trunk highway construction index,travel path turning degree,and the importance of passenger and freight transport channels,further determine the grade of the proposed trunk highway,and use the trunk highway layout optimization method based on the idea of connectivity circle to connect the cities along the trunk highway.By using DEMATEL method,the relationship matrix of influencing factors on the layout effect of trunk highway network in the context of comprehensive traffic is constructed to identify the key influencing factors of the layout effect.The DPSIR model framework is introduced to establish the evaluation index system for the layout effect of trunk highway network in the context of comprehensive traffic,and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the layout effect of trunk highway network based on DEA is proposed.The research shows that the DEA efficiency evaluation index value of each traffic zone increases as a whole after the trunk highway network layout,with 93.3% higher than 0.4,an increase of 73.3% compared with the current situation.Heilongjiang Province is divided into 90 traffic zones.Combined with the current data of each district,the total amount of comprehensive traffic generation and annual growth rate are predicted.Using the passenger and freight transport advantage distance model,it is calculated that the passenger transport advantage distance is 155 km,and the advantage distance of different types of goods is 76 km,205 km,600 km and 265 km respectively.Using the comprehensive traffic network model and the annual growth rate of comprehensive traffic,the traffic volume of each traffic zones in 2040 is predicted.Through the layout model and method of trunk highway network,the layout scheme of trunk highway network in Heilongjiang Province under the background of comprehensive transportation is given,and the effect before and after the layout is evaluated.The research results can provide method guidance and model reference for analyzing the impact of regional economic and social development and comprehensive transportation generation,exploring the competition and cooperation relationship between comprehensive transportation modes,and developing the demand forecast,layout optimization and evaluation of trunk highway network under the background of comprehensive transportation. |
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