| General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward in the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and further emphasized in the Fourth Plenary Session of the19 th CPC Central Committee,"accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply,multi-channel security,and simultaneous rent-purchase".Urban pension real estate,as a new format for the integration of real estate and pension services,is an important response to the multi-subject supply,multi-channel security and rent-purchase concurrent system.At present,urban pension real estate is popular with real estate companies,insurance industries,pension service companies and other practical circles,and is particularly regarded as an important direction for business transformation of real estate companies,and is an vital choice for real estate industry’s new round of industrial upgrading.They have appeal the attention of experts and scholars in the fields of real estate,regional economy and public management.Based on the existing research,few scholars have conducted research on the factors affecting the balance between supply and demand for urban pension real estate based on the basic theoretical proposition of economic supply and demand.In order to explore this issue in depth,first of all,this paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors and mechanism of the balance between supply and demand of pension real estate;secondly,using the panel data of 289 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2017,construct municipal-level pensions Real estate supplied by index system and demanded by index system.The supply index and demand index are measured,and the coupling coordination model is used to calculate the level of coordination between the supply and demand of senior real estate in various cities;Thirdly,on the basis of further analysis of the mechanism of land supply,capital mismatch and labor mismatch which impact on the balance between supply and demand of pension real estate,using the empirical regression model,OLS model,Probit model to test the impact on the supply and demand of pension real estate,supply and demand coupling coordination degree and whether the supply-demand balance can be improved step by step is tested empirically.Through the foregoing theoretical analysis and empirical tests,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The supply and demand index of elderly real estate in various cities shows an upward trend and there is regional heterogeneity.Regional heterogeneity is mainly manifested in the regional heterogeneity in the east,middle and west.(2)The time evolution of the coupling and coordination of the supply and demand of elderly real estate in various cities is getting better,and the spatial heterogeneity is spatial.The characteristics of time are specifically manifested as a general uncoordinated development towards a basic uncoordinated and highly coordinated direction.The spatial characteristics are specifically manifested as the coupling and coordination degree of pension real estate in the eastern region which is greater than that in the central and western regions,and the central region is slightly larger than the western region.(3)Significance of land supply affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,land supply significantly affects the supply of pension real estate through the price transmission mechanism,and negatively affects the demand for pension real estate through the consumption expectation transmission mechanism,thus significantly affecting the coupling and coordination of the pension real estate supply system and demand system.And it can not improve the balance of supply and demand for pension real estate.(4)The significant mismatch of capital affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,capital mismatch negatively affects the supply of pension real estate by affecting significant factor productivity,credit discrimination and other significant negative factors,and positively affects the demand for pension real estate by increasing savings and stimulating consumption.The coupling and coordination of the supply system and the demand system,and can improve the balance of supply and demand of pension real estate.(5)The significant mismatch of labor force affects the balance between supply and demand of urban pension real estate.Specifically,the effect of labor mismatch on the supply of pension real estate is not significant,and the reduction of the relative effect level under the wage difference effect has a significant negative impact on the demand for pension real estate,thus significantly negatively affecting the coupling of the pension real estate supply system and demand system Coordination degree,and it can not improve the balance of supply and demand of pension real estate.Based on the above conclusions,this study believes that in order to promote the development of urban pension real estate,the following measures should be taken: first,promote land supply-side reform,reduce fiscal dependence on land through tax reform,and implement city-based policies based on land supply capacity and market demand;Second,promote the rational allocation of capital,reasonably exert interest rates on the regulation of the pension industry,further optimize the allocation of subsidies and tax incentives,cultivate and improve various types of multi-level capital systems,and reduce financing constraints;again,realizeing the free flow of labor and industry,the structure promotes the improvement of the labor force structure,continues to deepen the household registration system to promote labor mobility,increases the investment and cultivation of human capital,and breaks down the barriers for talent mobility among regions,departments,and industries. |
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